Modeling of electricity demand for Azerbaijan: Time-varying coefficient cointegration approach

  • Focus Area -
  • Type KAPSARC journal article
  • Date 1 November 2017
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Abstract

Recent literature has shown that electricity demand elasticities may not be constant over time and this has investigated using time-varying estimation methods. As accurate modeling of electricity demand is very important in Azerbaijan, which is a transitional country facing significant change in its economic outlook, we analyze whether the response of electricity demand to income and price is varying over time in this economy. We employed the Time-Varying Coefficient cointegration approach, a cutting-edge time-varying estimation method. We find evidence that income elasticity demonstrates sizeable variation for the period of investigation ranging from 0.48% to 0.56%. The study has some useful policy implications related to the income and price aspects of the electricity consumption in Azerbaijan. © 2016 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.

https://www.kapsarc.org/booksarticles/page/2/#

Energies

Authors

Jeyhun Mikayilov

Jeyhun Mikayilov

Research Fellow Jeyhun is a research fellow at KAPSARC. He received his B.A. and M.S. from Azerbaijan State University (now Baku State… Jeyhun is a research fellow at KAPSARC. He received his B.A. and M.S. from Azerbaijan State University (now Baku State University) in mathematics. Jeyhun holds a Ph.D. in applied mathematics and a D.S. in econometrics. Before joining KAPSARC in September 2017, Jeyhun was an associate professor at the Department of Statistics and Econometrics at Azerbaijan State University, and the Department of Economics at Qafqaz University, where he taught econometrics, statistics, and mathematical economics. His other roles have included director of the Research Institute for Social Sciences and Humanities, and head of the Center for Socio-Economic Research. Jeyhun was a postdoctoral researcher at Indiana University Bloomington, United States (U.S.). He has also been a visiting researcher at several institutions, including the Center for Econometric Research, Sungyunkwan University in Seoul, South Korea; Vistula University, Warsaw, Poland; the University of North Texas, and the University of South Texas, both in the U.S. Jeyhun’s research is focused on applied time series econometrics, the economics of energy, the environment and sustainable development. He has authored over 40 scientific articles published in peer-reviewed journals and is an editorial board member of the International Journal of Advanced Multidisciplinary Research and Review, the Journal of Management, Economics and Industrial Organization, and the Journal of Socio-Economic Studies, and a member of the International Association for Energy Economics.

Expertise

  • Applied Time Series Econometrics
  • The Economics of Energy and Environment
  • Sustainable Development

Publications See all Jeyhun Mikayilov’s publications

Fakhri Hasanov

Fakhri Hasanov

Senior Fellow I Fakhri Hasanov is a senior fellow and leads the KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model projects with 20+ years of experience… Fakhri Hasanov is a senior fellow and leads the KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model projects with 20+ years of experience in econometric modeling and forecasting. Since 2015, he has been involved in multistakeholder projects, leading and executing macroeconomic analysis of various policy choices and initiatives (e.g., energy prices, energy demand, and fiscal reforms) for the Kingdom’s economy. He has extensive experience working with policymakers. Prior to KAPSARC, he was a post-doc at George Washington University. His research mainly covers macro-econometric modeling for energy and environmental economics policy analyses. Dr. Hasanov has authored 50+ applied studies published in reputable journals such as Energy Policy, Energy Economics, Empirical Economics, and Energy Strategy Review. His research is recognized internationally (e.g., he is listed among the top 2% of scientists globally by Elsevier). Fakhri is an editorial board member of various peer-reviewed journals, such as Frontiers in Environmental Science. He holds a Ph.D. in econometrics.

Expertise

  • Econometric modeling and forecasting
  • Time series and panel data econometrics
  • Macroeconometric models for policy analyses
  • Energy economics
  • Environmental economics.

Publications See all Fakhri Hasanov’s publications

Carlo Andrea Bollino

Carlo Andrea Bollino

Visiting Researcher Carlo Andrea Bollino is a Professor of Economics at the University of Perugia and Professor of Energy Economics at the… Carlo Andrea Bollino is a Professor of Economics at the University of Perugia and Professor of Energy Economics at the University LUISS, Rome. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Pennsylvania, where he was supervised by Nobel laureate Professor Lawrence Klein. He has been a Visiting Researcher at KAPSARC since 2015, focusing on econometric analysis, electricity market reform and climate change policy analysis. He is a Visiting Professor at Technische Universität, Berlin, Germany, the President (honorary) of the Italian Association for Energy Economics. He was the President of the IAEE in 2008, the President of GSE (Italian Renewable Energy Agency) and GRTN (Italian Electric Transmission network); Energy Advisor to the Minister of Industry and Ministry of Treasury of Italy; Chief Economist, ENI; Economist, Bank of Italy; and a Research Associate at Project Link for the United Nations. He has testified to the Italian Senate and Parliament briefings and has provided various governments with technical and policy reports on electricity market liberalization and renewable energy developments.

Expertise

  • Consumer Behavior
  • Investment
  • Energy and Environment
  • Macroeoconometric Modeling

Publications See all Carlo Andrea Bollino’s publications

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