1
ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟا ﻰﻟإ لﻮﺤﺘﻟا تﺎﻴﻣﺎﻨﻳد ﻢﻬﻓ
ةدﺪﺤﻤﻟا تاﺮﺷﺆﻤﻟا ﺞﻬﻧ :ةدﺪﺠﺘﻤﻟا
زﺎﻤﻠﻳ ﺢﺗﺎﻓ
November 2021 / KS-2021--MP03-ARA
2
2021
كرﺎﺴﺑﺎﻛ ﻦﻋ
ﻲﻧﻮﻧﺎﻗ رﺎﻌﺷإ
3
45
20181990149
ﺺﺨﻠﻤﻟا
4
ﺔﻣﺪﻘﻤﻟا 1
1
19901
2
2018
45
1990149
2018
2018
2014
RETPI
2019
5
ﺔﻣﺪﻘﻤﻟا 1
3
6
تارﻮﺸﻨﻤﻟا ﺔﻌﺟاﺮﻣ 2
Bourcet [2020];
[2018
Bourcet 2020
2010]
2017
Bourcet 2020
7
تارﻮﺸﻨﻤﻟا ﺔﻌﺟاﺮﻣ 2
4
5
[2020
6
8
تارﻮﺸﻨﻤﻟا ﺔﻌﺟاﺮﻣ 2
9
تارﻮﺸﻨﻤﻟا ﺔﻌﺟاﺮﻣ 2
1997
2015
10
7
RETPI
RETPI1
RETPI
RETPI
تارﻮﺸﻨﻤﻟا ﺔﻌﺟاﺮﻣ 2
11
RETPI
2017
2000
20182000
RETPIWEFETI WECTI
149127128
2018 - 19902018 - 20172018 - 2000
RETPI.1
تارﻮﺸﻨﻤﻟا ﺔﻌﺟاﺮﻣ 2
12
تﺎﻧﺎﻴﺒﻟا .3
20181990
•
•
•
9
10
!" =∝#+$.!" +"+!
%+!+!",
!" =∝#+0 &
&
$!+0 '
'
$!
+"+"
%+!",
13
تﺎﻧﺎﻴﺒﻟا .3
RETPI2
Sub-index Abbrevation Description
Energy Transition Determinant Index (ETDI)
Economic Factors Sub-index (EFI)
Size Potential Sub-
index (SPI)
gdp GDP
pop. Population
cap.form Gross capital formation (constant 2010 US$)
land Land size
Growth Performance
Sub-index (GPI)
gdp.gr GDP growth
pop.gr Popultion growth
cap.form.gr Capital formation growth
Development Level
Sub-index (DLI)
gdp.pc GDP per capita
xed.tel Fixed telephone subscriptions (per 100 people)
internet Individuals using the internet (% of population)
mobile Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people)
airtravel Access to air travel - Air transport, passengers carried
Human Capital Sub-index (HCI)
Demography Sub-
index (DI)
pop15.64 Population ages 15-64 (% of total population)
pop64+ Population ages 64+ (% of total population)
pop.fem Population female (% of total population)
pop.urban Urban population (% of total population)
pop.prod Production rate (Birth rate, crude [per 1,000 people] / Death rate, crude [per 1,000 people])
Education Sub-index
(EI)
comp.sch Compulsory education, duration (years)
sch.enroll School enrollment, primary (% gross)
inv.pup.teacher Pupil-teacher ratio, primary (inverse)
Health Sub-index (HI) health.exp Current health expenditure (% of GDP)
physician Physicians (per 1,000 people)
inv.mortal Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births) (inverse)
inv.tuber Incidence of tuberculosis (per 100,000 people) (inverse)
clean.water People using at least basic drinking water services (% of population)
Financial Development
Sub-index (FDI)
credit.to.gdp Domestic credit provided by nancial sector (% of GDP)
fdi Foreign direct investment, net inows (% of GDP)
trade Trade ([import+export]/of GDP)
Energy Access Sub-index
(EAI)
acc.elec Access to electricity (% of population)
acc.elec.rural Access to electricity, rural (% of rural population)
acc.elec.cooking Access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking (% of population)
elec.cons.pc Electric power consumption (kWh per capita)
Energy Security Sub-index
(ESI)
energy.imp Energy imports, net (% of energy use)
inv.res.rent Total natural resources rents (% of GDP) (inverse)
inv.energy.dep Energy depletion (% of GNI) (inverse)
Enviromental Sustainability
Sub-index (ENSI)
inv.co2.gdp CO2 emissions (kg per 2010 US$ of GDP) (inverse)
inv.co2.pc CO2 emissions (metric tons per capita) (inverse)
inv.co2.elec.heat CO2 emissions from electricity and heat production, total (% of total fuel combustion) (inverse)
inv.fossil.fuel Fossil fuel energy consumption (% of total) (inverse)
Institutional Infrastructure
Sub-index (III)
voice Voice and accountability
pol.stab Political stability, no violence
govt.effct Government effectiveness
regulatory.qua Regulatory quality
rule.law Rule of law
corrupt Control of corruption
14
تﺎﻧﺎﻴﺒﻟا .3
ti
f
j
h
11
2020
R2
R225
12
135
.3
Variable Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max
1 gdp (in million $) 4,379 324,000 1,290,000 101 20,500,000
2 pop. (in million) 4,379 42.00 142.00 0.42 1,390.00
3 cap.form (in million $) 4,379 58,600 128,000 - 799,000
4 land (in million sq. km) 4,379 0.84 2.04 0.00 16.40
5gdp.gr 4,379 0.07 0.16 -0.76 3.05
6pop.gr 4,379 0.02 0.02 - 0.19 0.19
7cap.form.gr 4,339 0.05 0.13 -0.44 1.24
8gdp.pc 4,379 9,343.94 14,600.07 95.19 103,059.20
9xed.tel 4,377 16.36 17.6 9 0.00 68.41
10 internet 4,379 20.43 27. 5 5 0.00 98.64
15
تﺎﻧﺎﻴﺒﻟا .3
11 mobile 4,379 48.24 51.36 0.00 210.05
12 airtravel 4,379 0.50 1.01 0.00 10.05
13 credit.to.gdp 4,379 56.62 47. 9 0 0.00 260.86
14 fdi 4,191 3.61 5.06 -12.04 89.48
15 trade 4,379 78.02 36.61 11.0 9 226.04
16 pop15.64 4,379 61.48 7.07 46.98 78.75
17 pop64+ 4,379 7. 37 5.17 1.33 21.95
18 pop.fem 4,379 50.21 2.24 34.01 53.83
19 pop.urban 4,379 55.52 22.58 6.27 100.00
20 pop.prod 4,375 2.98 1.61 0.62 10.14
21 inv.pup.teacher 4,379 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.11
22 comp.sch 4,379 8.92 2.00 5.00 15.00
23 sch.enroll 4,379 70.33 32.30 5.16 156.56
24 clean.water 4,379 80.87 20.50 17.5 4 100.02
25 inv.mortal 4,379 0.04 0.05 0.00 0.33
26 inv.tuber 4,379 0.09 0.10 0.01 0.59
27 physician 4,379 1.56 1.39 0.00 5.29
28 health.exp 4,379 5.89 2.25 1.66 12.88
29 elec.cons.pc 4,379 3,354.13 3,624.91 23.67 17,765.72
30 acc.elec.cooking 4,379 59.22 37. 5 5 0.00 100.00
31 acc.elec.rural 4,379 65.87 40.21 0.00 100.00
32 acc.elec 4,379 74.28 33.56 2.13 100.00
33 energy.imp 4,379 -23.06 144.03 -885.25 103.31
34 inv.res.rent 4,302 10.35 75.88 0.02 1,505.81
35 inv.energy.dep 4,379 5.15 4.25 0.02 10.00
36 inv.co2.gdp 4,379 3.04 2.22 0.22 17.5 2
37 inv.co2.pc 4,379 2.53 5.28 0.03 53.47
38 inv.co2.elec.heat 4,379 11.55 3 37.75 0.00 10,000.00
39 inv.fossil.fuel 4,379 3 97. 38 1,953.58 0.01 10,000.00
40 voice 4,379 0.53 0.23 0.05 0.98
41 pol.stab 4,379 0.59 0.18 0.10 0.93
42 govt.effct 4,379 0.49 0.20 0.12 0.96
43 regulatory.qua 4,379 0.53 0.20 0.10 0.96
44 rule.law 4,379 0.52 0.21 0.14 0.99
45 corrupt 4,379 0.40 0.23 0.04 0.98
16
ةدﺪﺠﺘﻤﻟا ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟا ﻰﻟإ لﻮﺤﺘﻟا ﺮﺷﺆﻣ ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺗ .4
2
RETPI
RETPI
14
)RETPI
RETPI
100
100
EFI = 0.63⁕z(SPI) − 0.39⁕z(GPI) + 0.67⁕z(DLI), (1)
15
()=!!"#$%&(!)
*+,(!)
.
45
17
ةدﺪﺠﺘﻤﻟا ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟا ﻰﻟإ لﻮﺤﺘﻟا ﺮﺷﺆﻣ ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺗ .4
SPI = 0.55*z(gdp) + 0.43⁕z(pop.) + 0.54⁕z(cap.
formation) + 0.47⁕z(land),
GPI = 0.65⁕z(gdp.growth) + 0.39⁕z(pop.growth) +
0.65⁕z(cap.form.growth),
DLI = 0.50⁕z(gdp.pc) + 0.43⁕z(telephone) +
0.50⁕z(internet) + 0.43⁕z(mobile) + 0.35⁕z(airtravel).
6244 DGPI
FDI = 0.39⁕z(credit.to.gdp) + 0.65⁕z(fdi) +
0.66⁕z(trade). (2)
50
6415
1000
1000
HCI = 0.57⁕z(DI) + 0.57⁕z(EI) + 0.59⁕z(HI). (3)
18
ةدﺪﺠﺘﻤﻟا ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟا ﻰﻟإ لﻮﺤﺘﻟا ﺮﺷﺆﻣ ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺗ .4
88
DI = 0.47⁕z(pop15 − 64) + 0.59⁕z(pop64+) +
0.22⁕z(popfemale) + 0.40⁕z(pop.urban)
− 0.48⁕z(pop.prod.rate),
EI = 0.61⁕z(inv.pupil.teacher) + 0.48⁕z(compulsory.
edu) + 0.63⁕z(secondary.sch.enroll),
HI = 0.44⁕z(clean.water) + 0.45⁕z(inv.tuber) +
0.49⁕z(inv.mortality) + 0.48⁕z(physician)
+ 0.36⁕z(health.exp.).
637052DHIEIDI
EAI = 0.34⁕z(elec.cons.pc) + 0.54⁕z(access.to.elec.
cooking) + 0.54⁕z(access.to.elec)
+ 0.55⁕z(access.to.elec.rural). (4)
78
25
ESI = 0.67*z(energy.import) + 0.30*z(inv.resource.
rents) + 0.68*z(inv.energy.dep). (5)
52
19
2010
ENSI = 0.61*z(inv.CO2.gdp) + 0.64*z(inv.CO2.pc) +
0.24*z(inv.CO2.elec.heat)
+ 0.39*z(inv.fossil.fuel). (6)
44
III = 0.39⁕z(voice.accountability) + 0.37⁕z(political.
stab) + 0.42⁕z(govt.effectiveness)
+ 0.42⁕z(regulatory.quality) + 0.43⁕z(rule.of.law) +
0.42⁕z(control.of.corrupt). (7)
87
RETPI = 0.41⁕z(EFI) + 0.28⁕z(FDI) + 0.50⁕z(HCI) +
0.49⁕z(EAI)+ 0.05⁕z(ESI) − 0.24⁕z(ENSI)
+ 0.45⁕z(III). (8)
50
16
ةدﺪﺠﺘﻤﻟا ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟا ﻰﻟإ لﻮﺤﺘﻟا ﺮﺷﺆﻣ ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺗ .4
20
ﻰﻟإ لﻮﺤﺘﻟا ﺔﻴﻧﺎﻜﻣإ ﺮﺷﺆﻣ لﻮﺣ شﺎﻘﻧ .5
ةدﺪﺠﺘﻤﻟا ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟا
45
2018
RETPI
RETPI
III
RETPI EFI FDI HCI EAI ESI ENSI III
NhRE 0.2089* 0.2082* 0.1157* 0.2215* 0.1227* 0.1238* 0.0071 0.1956*
.3
21
ةدﺪﺠﺘﻤﻟا ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟا ﻰﻟإ لﻮﺤﺘﻟا ﺔﻴﻧﺎﻜﻣإ ﺮﺷﺆﻣ لﻮﺣ شﺎﻘﻧ .5
RETPI.1
RETPI
RETPI
1821990RETPI
85
3
2008
22
ةدﺪﺠﺘﻤﻟا ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟا ﻰﻟإ لﻮﺤﺘﻟا ﺔﻴﻧﺎﻜﻣإ ﺮﺷﺆﻣ لﻮﺣ شﺎﻘﻧ .5
.2
.3
1990
RETPI
1990
RETPI
RETPI
RETPI
23
2018RETPI5
2018RETPI
5
2018
4
2018RETPI
R
Country
RETPI
R
Country
RETPI
R
Country
RETPI
R
Country
RETPI
1
United States
1.00
46
Malaysia
0.70
91
Bolivia
0.56
136
Nigeria
0.38
2
Hong Kong
0.94
47
Saudi Arabia
0.69
92
Uzbekistan
0.56
137
Madagascar
0.38
3
Singapore
0.92
48
Costa Rica
0.69
93
Namibia
0.55
138
Cameroon
0.37
4
Canada
0.90
49
Uruguay
0.69
94
Kyrgyz Rep.
0.55
139
Eritrea
0.37
5
Germany
0.88
50
Argentina
0.68
95
Botswana
0.55
140
Tanzania
0.37
6 Ireland 0.88 51 Oman 0.68 96 Cambodia 0.55 141 Uganda 0.36
7
Japan
0.88
52
Kuwait
0.68
97
Egypt, Arab Rep.
0.55
142
Rwanda
0.35
8
Australia
0.85
53
North Macedonia
0.68
98
Honduras
0.54
143
Niger
0.35
9
Finland
0.85
54
Serbia
0.68
99
Guatemala
0.54
144
Malawi
0.34
10
Netherlands
0.85
55
Trinidad and Tob.
0.67
100
Gabon
0.53
145
Guinea-Bissau
0.33
11
Austria
0.82
56
Belarus
0.67
101
Libya
0.53
146
Congo, D.R.
0.31
12
Sweden
0.82
57
Vietnam
0.66
102
Nicaragua
0.52
147
Burundi
0.30
13
UK
0.82
58
Panama
0.65
103
Iraq
0.51
148
Central African
0.28
14
Switzerland
0.82
59
Thailand
0.65
104
Ghana
0.51
149
Chad
0.25
15
Norway
0.82
60
Turkey
0.65
105
Lao PDR
0.51
16
Korea, Rep.
0.81
61
Armenia
0.64
106
Nepal
0.50
17
Belgium
0.81
62
Mexico
0.64
107
Tajikistan Papua New
0.48
18
Denmark
0.81
63
Romania
0.64
108
Guinea
0.48
19
New Zealand
0.80
64
Lebanon
0.64
109
Myanmar
0.48
20
China
0.80
65
Bosnia
0.64
110
Congo, Rep.
0.48
21
UAE
0.80
66
Jordan
0.63
111
Eswatini
0.48
22 France 0.80 67 Albania 0.63 112 Bangladesh 0.47
23
Estonia
0.80
68
Jamaica
0.63
113
Senegal
0.47
24
Spain
0.79
69
Tunisia
0.63
114
Lesotho
0.46
25
Slovenia
0.78
70
India
0.63
115
Sierra Leone
0.45
26
Portugal
0.78
71
Ukraine
0.62
116
Kenya
0.45
27
Czech Rep.
0.77
72
Kazakhstan
0.61
117
Pakistan
0.45
28
Italy
0.77
73
South Africa
0.61
118
Mauritania
0.45
29
Cyprus
0.76
74
Moldova
0.61
119
Cote d'Ivoire
0.44
30
Lithuania
0.75
75
Colombia
0.60
120
Yemen, Rep.
0.43
31
Israel
0.75
76
Iran
0.60
121
Equatorial Guinea
0.43
32
Slovak Rep.
0.75
77
Peru
0.60
122
Benin
0.43
33
Qatar
0.74
78
Morocco
0.60
123
Mozambique
0.43
34
Greece
0.74
79
Mongolia
0.60
124
Liberia
0.42
35
Poland 0.73
80
Dominican Rep. 0.60
125
Sudan 0.42
36
Latvia
0.73
81
Azerbaijan
0.59
126
Afghanistan
0.42
37
Hungary
0.72
82
El Salvador
0.59
127
Togo
0.42
38
Russia
0.71
83
Ecuador
0.59
128
Gambia, The
0.40
39
Bahrain
0.71
84
Venezuela, RB
0.58
129
Zambia
0.40
40
Georgia
0.71
85
Indonesia
0.58
130
Burkina Faso
0.40
41
Chile
0.71
86
Sri Lanka
0.57
131
Guinea
0.40
42
Bulgaria
0.70
87
Algeria
0.57
132
Haiti
0.39
43
Brazil
0.70
88
Turkmenistan
0.57
133
Zimbabwe
0.38
44
Croatia
0.70
89
Paraguay
0.57
134
Angola
0.38
45
Mauritius
0.70
90
Philippines
0.56
135
Mali
0.38
ةدﺪﺠﺘﻤﻟا ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟا ﻰﻟإ لﻮﺤﺘﻟا ﺔﻴﻧﺎﻜﻣإ ﺮﺷﺆﻣ لﻮﺣ شﺎﻘﻧ .5
24
ةدﺪﺠﺘﻤﻟا ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟا ﻰﻟإ لﻮﺤﺘﻟا ﺔﻴﻧﺎﻜﻣإ ﺮﺷﺆﻣ لﻮﺣ شﺎﻘﻧ .5
2018.4
25
RETPI
45
RETPI
149RETPI
20181990
RETPI
2018
تﺎﺟﺎﺘﻨﺘﺳﻻا .6
26
ﺶﻣاﻮﻬﻟا
1
2
3
4
2018
5
110
20182050
20192030
203023
203090
6
7
20178
2020
201818501959
27
ﺶﻣاﻮﻬﻟا
10
11
12
13
14
15
= !
.
16
17
199018
1990
28
ﻊﺟاﺮﻤﻟا
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Growth in Oil Producing African Countries: A Panel Data
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