The Economics of
Offshore Wind-Based
Hydrogen Production
in Saudi Arabia
Ahmed A. Albalawi, Shahid Hasan, and
Amro M. Elshurafa
Discussion Paper
December 2024 I Doi: 10.30573/KS--2024-DP68
About KAPSARC
KAPSARC is an advisory think tank within global energy
economics and sustainability providing advisory services to
entities and authorities in the Saudi energy sector to advance
Saudi Arabia’s energy sector and inform global policies through
evidence-based advice and applied research.
This publication is also available in Arabic.
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3
The Economics of Oshore Wind-Based Hydrogen Production in Saudi Arabia
Key Points
Oshore hydrogen production from oshore wind energy is gaining global
attention as an appealing solution for scaling up green hydrogen production.
The technoeconomic feasibility of integrating oshore wind into hydrogen
production has been explored in various regions, but no comprehensive
study exists concerning Saudi Arabia’s oshore wind potential. This work
aims to assess the cost-eectiveness of producing hydrogen onshore versus
oshore from wind power in the Red Sea. Via the use of a deterministic cost
model, this study evaluates the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) for both
configurations. The results show that oshore wind farm costs and floating
foundations are the major drivers of capital expenditure (CAPEX). While
onshore electrolysis remains slightly less expensive than oshore electrolysis,
both configurations require substantial cost reductions to compete with
alternative onshore renewable energy sources.
The LCOH of oshore hydrogen production
from floating oshore wind ranges from $6.47 to
$8.01/kg, reflecting the current high cost of
such technology.
Significant cost reductions in the main components of
the system can reduce the cost range down to $4.57 to
$6.07/kg.
The development of Saudi Arabia’s oshore wind-to-
hydrogen sector will likely be a medium- to long-term
target, requiring further cost reductions in oshore
wind technology.
Future innovations in decentralized hydrogen
production can create new opportunities for cost
reduction and scalability in the sector.
4
The Economics of Oshore Wind-Based Hydrogen Production in Saudi Arabia
1. Introduction
The global push toward decarbonization and sustainable energy systems is
driving innovation in how and where we produce and utilize clean energy.
Hydrogen, a zero-emission fuel, is at the center of these innovations
and can be utilized across various hard-to-electrify industries. Hydrogen
production is categorized on the basis of the energy source used, with
greater attention being paid to renewable energy-based hydrogen, known as
“green hydrogen.” This situation has driven research, for example, into how
to integrate oshore wind energy into hydrogen production to leverage the
vast potential of oshore wind for producing green hydrogen. Oshore wind
is particularly appealing because of its high-capacity factors and consistent
speeds, oering a reliable and large-scale energy source for hydrogen
production, especially in areas with limited land availability. Globally, this
concept is gaining traction as countries seek to align their energy strategies
with decarbonization goals and establish themselves as leaders in the
emerging hydrogen economy.
Countries that have established oshore wind industries
are naturally proactive in exploring the promise of this
combination. The North Sea, in particular, is seeing a
collaborative approach to the development of these
two technologies and linking them to energy hubs in
countries such as Germany, Scotland, England, Denmark,
and Norway (Farahmand, Günther, and Kristiansen
2024). Energy hubs, which allow for the coordinated
management and optimization of dierent energy carriers
within a single integrated infrastructure, including local
renewable energy for green hydrogen production, have
become increasingly relevant in the context of oshore
wind. These hubs can eectively integrate wind power
generation into hydrogen production, energy storage,
and potentially other renewable sources, such as wave or
solar energy. By enabling the direct conversion of wind
energy into hydrogen at sea, these hubs can facilitate
more cost-eective oshore hydrogen production than
can the alternative of building high-voltage direct current
(HVDC) networks for onshore hydrogen production,
particularly in remote locations (Glaum, Neumann, and
Brown 2024).
The growth of oshore wind has been driven by
supportive policies, such as the European Union’s
(EU’s) Oshore Renewable Energy Strategy, which
aims to expand capacity to 60 gigawatts (GW) by 2030
and 300 GW by 2050 (European Commission 2020).
Owing to its high-capacity factors and potential for
large-scale deployment, oshore wind is ideally suited
to meet the growing demand for green hydrogen. The
ongoing advancements in floating wind technology
further expand the geographical scope of oshore wind,
enabling its deployment in deeper waters, where fixed-
bottom turbines are not feasible. This situation opens
new opportunities for countries with large amounts
of oshore wind resources in deeper waters. Floating
oshore wind farms (FOWFs), though currently more
expensive than fixed turbines, oer greater wind resource
potential and are the focus of ongoing research to
reduce costs (Kang, Gbadago, and Hwang 2024). There
are positive interactions between fixed and floating
oshore wind technologies, such as knowledge sharing
and collaboration. But negative interactions, such as
competition for resources, resistance from established
5
The Economics of Oshore Wind-Based Hydrogen Production in Saudi Arabia
turbine manufacturers, and challenges in infrastructure
and labor availability, have also been found (Havinga, van
der Loos, and Steen 2024).
In the UK’s latest Contracts-for-Dierence (CfD) Allocation
Round 6 (AR6), the strike price for oshore wind is set at
£58.87/MWh (approximately $78/MWh), whereas floating
oshore wind secures a higher strike price of £139.93/
MWh (approximately $186/MWh) owing to the newer and
less mature technology of the latter (DESNZ 2024). For
the global oshore wind sector, auction design elements
such as revenue stabilization mechanisms and strategic
bidding behavior have successfully reduced costs and
accelerated deployment. Jansen et al.’s (2022) review of
historical auction bids reveals a trend of decreasing bid
prices over time, driven by technological advancements,
economies of scale, and increased competition. However,
the analysis also emphasizes the challenges posed by
strategic bidding and the risk of underbidding in highly
competitive markets. In electricity markets, integrating
hydrogen in oshore wind farms adds flexibility, reducing
electricity imbalances and regulation costs because
of the diculty in accurately forecasting the amount of
wind generation (Calado et al. 2024). Hydrogen oers
significant opportunities for long- and short-term energy
storage, enabling the integration of intermittent renewable
energy sources into the grid without disrupting the market
(Hill et al. 2024). However, while electrolyzers have the
potential to provide flexibility services, their primary
economic driver is solely hydrogen production (Lüth et al.
2024).
Yet, the integration of oshore wind and hydrogen
production is not without its challenges. Although
technical, environmental, and operational challenges
exist, we focus primarily on economic challenges in this
paper. The high costs associated with oshore wind
infrastructure, electrolysis technology, and hydrogen
transportation remain key barriers. These costs need
to be carefully evaluated through technoeconomic
assessment (TEA) to determine the viability of such
projects. TEA provides a framework for assessing the
economic and technical feasibility of integrating oshore
wind into hydrogen production, considering factors such
as capital and operational costs, potential revenue, and
the impact of scale. This analysis is crucial for identifying
the most cost-eective strategies, for guiding investments
in this emerging sector and for determining the level
of incentive support required to reduce hydrogen
production costs.
This study aims to clarify the costs associated with
oshore wind-to-hydrogen pathways, specifically in the
context of Saudi Arabia. The economic analysis in this
work compares the costs and eciencies of producing
hydrogen onshore via transmitted electrical power from
oshore wind turbines with the alternative approach
of producing hydrogen oshore and transporting it via
pipelines. This study provides valuable insights into the
technoeconomic aspects of oshore wind-to-hydrogen
integration in the Red Sea region, highlighting the
challenges of this technology, as Saudi Arabia aims to
become a global leader in green hydrogen production.
This work identifies the unique cost drivers for both
onshore and oshore configurations and emphasizes
the need for significant cost reductions to make these
pathways competitive with alternative green hydrogen
production methods. The various modes of hydrogen
production with oshore wind power examined in this
study are briefly described below.
The integration of oshore wind energy into hydrogen
production can be achieved through the following two
potential configurations, each with a distinct technological
setup and infrastructure requirements: producing
renewable energy oshore, converting it to hydrogen
oshore, and then transporting hydrogen to shore, or
producing renewable energy oshore, transmitting it to
shore, and producing hydrogen onshore.
A. Centralized
Onshore Electrolysis
(Undersea Power
Cables for Onshore
Electrolysis)
In this mode, the electricity generated by oshore
wind farms is transported to onshore facilities, where
hydrogen production takes place through electrolysis.
This configuration typically involves the use of either high-
voltage alternative current (HVAC) or HVDC undersea
cables, depending on distance required. The onshore
electrolysis production provides easier access to the
desalinated water supply needed for the electrolysis
process, as well as proximity to existing industrial and
transport networks.
6
The Economics of Oshore Wind-Based Hydrogen Production in Saudi Arabia
B. Centralized
Oshore Electrolysis
(Hydrogen
Transported by Pipe
or Ship)
In this configuration, electrolysis occurs on a central
oshore platform, where wind power is used to produce
hydrogen via seawater. Platforms can accommodate
systems ranging from 100 megawatts (MW) to 700 MWs
(Venugopalan, Garcia Navarro, and Buijs 2024). The
hydrogen produced is transported to shore via pipelines
Substation Electrolyzers
Land
Hydrogen
Hydrogen
network
Sea
Inner-array
cables
Hydrogen pipeline
Figure 1. Hydrogen integration with oshore wind farms.
Substation Substation Electrolyzers
Land
Hydrogen
Sea
Inner-array
cables
Undersea HVAC cables
(b) Centralized oshore electrolysis.
Source: Authors.
(a) Centralized onshore electrolysis.
or specialized hydrogen carriers (ships). It is also possible
for large-scale electrolysis to take place on artificial
islands, accommodating multiple GW-scale hydrogen
production units. These islands have the potential for both
horizontal and vertical expansion to accommodate future
increases in hydrogen demand.
In oshore hydrogen production, it is crucial to treat water
properly because electrolyzers require very pure water to
operate eciently. Seawater, which contains high levels of
salt and other impurities, cannot be used directly. Therefore,
seawater must undergo a purification/desalination process.
The purification process is crucial for preventing damage
to equipment and maintaining eciency during hydrogen
production. Without this step, impurities in seawater can
corrode the system or clog the components, resulting
in expensive maintenance and reduced performance
(Venugopalan, Garcia Navarro, and Buijs 2024).
7
The Economics of Oshore Wind-Based Hydrogen Production in Saudi Arabia
Transporting oshore-produced hydrogen to shore can
be accomplished via pipelines, most likely through newly
built pipeline infrastructure; ship transport in various forms
(compressed gas, liquid hydrogen, or hydrogen carriers
such as ammonia) from centralized oshore electrolyzers;
or the floating production, storage and ooading (FPSO1)
concept. Each method comes with its own set of cost,
infrastructure, and eciency considerations.
8
The Economics of Oshore Wind-Based Hydrogen Production in Saudi Arabia
2. Status of Offshore
Hydrogen from Wind
Power and Literature
Review
2.1 Sample Global Projects
Oshore wind energy integration into hydrogen production is increasingly
becoming a key strategic focus for many countries as part of their broader
energy transition goals. Several countries are developing strategies to
leverage oshore wind resources for large-scale hydrogen production.
These strategies are often aligned with national decarbonization targets,
energy security goals, and ambitions to become leaders in the emerging
global hydrogen economy.
Germany is planning to integrate oshore wind power
into hydrogen production as part of its National
Hydrogen Strategy. The country aims to use its
extensive oshore wind resources in the North and
Baltic Seas to advance green hydrogen production.
Germany is working on several pilot projects in the
North Sea, including the AquaVentus initiative, which
aims to produce 1 million tonnes (Mt) of green hydrogen
from approximately 10 GW oshore wind power by
2035 (AquaVentus 2024). This initiative includes several
projects, such as the AquaSector project, which plans
to install a 300-MW electrolyzer capacity as a proof
of concept. The AquaPrimus pilot project will focus
on testing the integration of a 15-MW hydrogen wind
turbine. Additionally, the AquaDuctus project will
transport green hydrogen from oshore production sites
to the mainland through a hydrogen pipeline. Helgoland,
a small island in the North Sea, is set to become an
energy hub within the AquaVentus initiative, serving as
a central point for hydrogen production, storage, and
distribution (RWE 2024).
The SEN-1 area in the German North Sea is set to be the
first region tendered specifically for oshore hydrogen
production. Within this area, 300 MW of electrolyzers will
be installed to produce green hydrogen, which will then
be transported to shore through the AquaDuctus pipeline.
In its Baltic Sea areas, Rostock’s port infrastructure
will be upgraded to support hydrogen storage and
distribution. The HyTech Hafen Rostock Project will utilize
oshore wind power to produce green hydrogen. This
hydrogen will be used in various applications, including
port operations, industrial processes, and transportation
(Rostock 2024).
The Netherlands is investing heavily in oshore wind
energy with hydrogen as part of its strategy to transition
to a low-carbon economy. The country aims to have
9
The Economics of Oshore Wind-Based Hydrogen Production in Saudi Arabia
11.5 GW of oshore wind capacity by 2030, with plans
for further expansion in the future. A significant portion
of this capacity will be used for hydrogen production.
The NortH2 project aims to develop 4 GW of electrolysis
capacity by 2030, powered by oshore wind farms, with
plans to expand to 10 GW by 2040. Initially, electrolyzers
will be placed onshore at the Eemshaven port, with future
targets to produce hydrogen at sea once the technology
matures (NortH2 2024). The Netherlands was the first
country to pilot oshore green hydrogen production
through the PosHYdon project, which integrated the
following three energy systems in the Dutch North Sea:
oshore wind, oshore gas, and oshore hydrogen.
Green hydrogen is mixed with gas and transported via an
existing gas pipeline to the coast (PosHYdon 2024).
Near the port of Rotterdam, the Holland Hydrogen I
project aims to connect 200-MW electrolyzers with
oshore wind to serve the industrial areas in the port
(Shell 2022). Another key project for large-scale oshore
wind development is underway north of the Wadden
Islands in the North Sea, with a 500-MW electrolysis
capacity expected to be operational by 2031. The project
will source energy from approximately 4 GW of oshore
wind power and use an existing natural gas pipeline for
hydrogen transport (Enerdata 2024).
The UK is actively pursuing several oshore wind-to-
hydrogen projects as part of its broader strategy to
achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. These
projects are designed to leverage the UK’s substantial
oshore wind resources to produce green hydrogen. This
hydrogen can be used to decarbonize various sectors,
including industry, transportation, and heating. On its
east coast, the UK has five hydrogen production hubs,
with a targeted hydrogen capacity of 11.6 GW by 2037, of
which 5.2 GW are projected to be green hydrogen. This
approach aims to leverage the region’s concentrated
industrial energy demand, significant gas storage and
oshore wind power (East Coast Hydrogen 2023). The
Barrow Green Hydrogen Hub is a planned project in
Cumbria that seeks to produce green hydrogen from
35-MW electrolyzers using solar power and oshore
wind power from the Irish Sea. The hydrogen produced
will be used to decarbonize local industries (Barrow
Green Hydrogen 2024). The Deepwater Oshore Local
Production of Hydrogen (Dolphyn) project focuses on
developing technology that allows hydrogen production
from seawater to take place directly on floating oshore
wind platforms. This technology is in the trial phase, with a
target to commercialize it before 2030 (Dolphyn Hydrogen
2024). The Dolphyn project in the UK has reported that
decentralized hydrogen production via floating oshore
wind and PEMEL systems are the most cost-eective
approaches, with a levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) of
approximately £2/kg at 100 km oshore (Kang, Gbadago,
and Hwang 2024).
ScotWind is a major oshore wind leasing round
managed by Crown Estate Scotland, which has opened
up vast areas of Scotland’s seabed for oshore wind
development. Some of these projects are exploring
the integration of hydrogen production. A study
by the Net Zero Technology Centre (NZTC) on the
Hydrogen Backbone Link has highlighted potential
complementarities between the ScotWind leasing sites
and a potential hydrogen pipeline from Scotland to
Europe to utilize approximately 10 GW of wind power
(NZTC 2023).
Denmark, known for its leadership in wind energy, is now
focusing on green hydrogen as a key part of its energy
transition strategy. The country is working on ambitious
projects to produce green hydrogen from oshore wind.
One of these projects is the Energy Island North Sea,
which aims to create the world’s first artificial energy
island. The island will serve as a hub for oshore wind
farms and green hydrogen production, connecting up to
10 GW of oshore wind capacity. The generated power
can either feed into the grid or be used for hydrogen or
other power-to-X products (DEA 2024).
Similarly, on its Baltic Sea coast, the Bornholm Energy
Island project aims to connect up to 3 GW of oshore
wind capacity to the energy island. The project plans to
produce green hydrogen for domestic use and export.
The H2RES Project aims to establish a small-scale
electrolysis facility powered by oshore wind turbines.
The 2-MW demonstration project will use two 3.6-
MW oshore wind turbines to power green hydrogen
production (Ørsted 2021).
Sweden is planning to build the Neptunus Energy Hub
in the southern Baltic Sea. This energy hub is set to
feature up to 3.1 GW of oshore wind capacity, and a
portion of this electricity will be used to produce up to
370 kilotons (kt) of green hydrogen per year through
oshore electrolyzers.
Additionally, the Polargrund Energy Hub, situated in
the northern Gulf of Bothnia, aims to have a capacity of
3-GW oshore wind and will include electrolyzers that
can produce up to 200 kt of green hydrogen per year.
These projects are important parts of Sweden’s strategy
10
The Economics of Oshore Wind-Based Hydrogen Production in Saudi Arabia
to expand its renewable energy infrastructure and reduce
carbon emissions, with operations expected to begin by
the early 2030s (Enerdata 2024). In Vietnam, the use of
2 GW of oshore wind for hydrogen production by 2035
has been proposed. This proposal is part of the country’s
broader energy transition strategy, which includes
significant oshore wind development and the integration
of green hydrogen production to support its 2050 net-
zero emission target (Enerdata 2024).
2.2 Literature
Review of Oshore
Wind and Hydrogen
Production
Recent studies have focused on evaluating the
technoeconomic feasibility of integrating oshore wind
energy with hydrogen production to increase energy
sustainability and reduce curtailment issues. Oshore
wind farms face significant challenges related to high
installation costs and grid connection diculties,
particularly due to the higher capacitance in underwater
AC cables. While HVDC systems can mitigate energy
loss, they have higher installation costs than do other
systems. This situation has prompted the exploration of
innovative alternatives, such as producing hydrogen at
sea and transporting it to land without direct electricity
grid connections (Calado et al. 2024; Kang, Gbadago,
and Hwang 2024). In fact, some studies have reported
that oshore hydrogen production is more cost-eective
than is the construction of HVDC networks for onshore
hydrogen production, especially in remote locations and
for large capacities (Glaum, Neumann, and Brown 2024;
Ibrahim et al. 2022; Wang et al. 2024). Conversely, wind
farms located close to shore are likely connected to
onshore facilities via power cables (th et al. 2023).
Compared with underwater electrical cables, the
transportation of energy via underwater hydrogen
pipelines is an appealing option because of lower energy
losses, lower costs, and improved scalability (Calado
et al. 2024). This approach allows oshore wind farms
to bypass grid connections entirely, increasing their
feasibility and eciency when combined with onsite
hydrogen production in areas with high wind power
density (Bonacina, Bordbar Gaskare, and Valenti 2022;
Giampieri, Ling-Chin, and Roskilly 2024).
Promising developments in the oshore wind-to-hydrogen
sector involve the use of ammonia as a renewable
hydrogen carrier for long-distance interoceanic transport.
Studies have suggested that the transportation costs of
ammonia are lower than are the expenses associated with
hydrogen conversion, storage, and reconversion. While
liquid hydrogen is also considered promising because
of its lower cost and greater flexibility in delivery, it faces
significant energy loss during storage and transport (Díaz-
Motta, Díaz-González, and Villa-Arrieta 2023; Bonacina,
Bordbar Gaskare, and Valenti 2022). Ammonia, with its
relatively high volumetric energy density and existing
global infrastructure for storage and transport, is gaining
attention as a critical component in the emerging hydrogen
and green hydrogen economy (Díaz-Motta, Díaz-González,
and Villa-Arriet 2023; Perez-Vigueras et al. 2023).
Proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzers are well
suited for oshore wind integration because of their high
eciency, rapid response to variable loads, and ability
to adapt to the intermittency of wind power. Compared
with other electrolysis technologies, the superior
performance of PEM electrolyzers makes them ideal for
oshore hydrogen production (Farahmand, Günther, and
Kristiansen 2024; Guven 2024; Akdağ 2023; Luo et al.
2022). To produce hydrogen at sea, electrolyzers require
high-purity water, which is typically obtained through
reverse osmosis or other water treatment processes to
ensure the necessary quality (Komorowska, Benalcazar,
and Kamiński 2023). Desalination coupled with
seawater electrolysis is feasible but requires significant
technological advancements (Ramakrishnan et al. 2024).
The integration of hydrogen production into oshore
wind shows promise, but several challenges need to
be addressed. Farahmand, Günther, and Kristiansen
(2024); Komorowska, Benalcazar, and Kamiński (2023)
have highlighted the need for substantial investments in
infrastructure, such as pipelines and storage facilities, to
manage the produced hydrogen. Additionally, the above
authors have noted that regulatory frameworks and
market mechanisms need to evolve to support the large-
scale deployment of these systems. Distributed hydrogen
production, which eliminates the need for centralized
onshore facilities, has been demonstrated to be more
cost-eective than other types of hydrogen production,
especially in marine environments (Kang, Gbadago, and
Hwang 2024).
In recent studies, Bonacina, Bordbar Gaskare, and Valenti
(2022) and Díaz-Motta, Díaz-González, and Villa-Arriet
11
The Economics of Oshore Wind-Based Hydrogen Production in Saudi Arabia
(2023) have investigated the environmental sustainability
of producing hydrogen via oshore wind. Both studies
have concluded that oshore wind-powered hydrogen
production has a lower environmental impact than
conventional hydrogen production. Despite its significant
potential and low environmental impact, the oshore wind
sector faces high installation costs and the challenges of
operating under harsh environmental conditions (Rezaei,
Akimov, and Gray 2024). Some research on electrolysis
has emphasized the use of surplus renewable energy.
This approach increases production costs because both
hydrogen and electricity need to be exported. Recent
studies have suggested that relying solely on excess wind
energy is not economically viable. Instead, dedicated
oshore wind farms for hydrogen production should be
prioritized (Hill et al. 2024; Bonacina, Bordbar Gaskare,
and Valenti 2022).
The uncertainty in cost assumptions presents a significant
challenge for oshore wind-hydrogen systems. The LCOH
is highly sensitive to the electricity costs associated
with oshore wind farms (dal et al. 2024). Existing
technoeconomic studies have often lacked clarity
in terms of hydrogen production costs. Additionally,
electrolyzer eciency is sensitive to fluctuations
in input power, necessitating dynamic models to
accurately estimate hydrogen production costs (Rezaei,
Akimov, and Gray 2024; Hill et al. 2024). This ambiguity
emphasizes the need for more detailed and transparent
analyses to assess the financial feasibility of oshore
wind-hydrogen systems.
2.3 LCOH from
Oshore Wind
The TEA of hydrogen production from oshore wind
energy is an important area of focus in current research.
A consistent theme across several studies is the
evaluation of the LCOH under dierent scenarios and
timelines. Studies such as that of Groenemans et al.
(2022) have demonstrated that directly coupling PEM
electrolysis (PEMEL) systems with oshore wind turbines
can potentially lower the LCOH to $2.09/kg via pipelines,
compared with $3.86/kg from traditional electrolysis using
transmitted electricity, assuming an accelerated price
reduction in the main components. Similarly, Giampieri,
Ling-Chin, and Roskilly (2024) have conducted a detailed
case study on the UK, using simulation models to analyze
the costs and technical requirements of hydrogen
production, storage, and transportation in various oshore
wind-to-hydrogen scenarios, revealing that compressed
hydrogen, which is produced oshore and transported
via pipelines, is the most cost-eective scenario,
potentially lowering the LCOH from 6.6 $/kg at present to
approximately $2.9/kg by 2050.
Kang, Gbadago, and Hwang (2024) have examined
the feasibility of hydrogen production by FOWFs o
the Korean Peninsula highlighting that liquid hydrogen
production becomes more cost-eective at scales up
to 250 MW, with the LCOH holding at approximately
11 $/kg. The above study has suggested that specific
regional conditions and synergies can further enhance
the economic viability of oshore wind-to-hydrogen
systems. Bonacina, Bordbar Gaskare, and Valenti (2022)
have explored the viability of creating oshore liquefied
hydrogen production plants powered by wind energy
for the purpose of refueling ships, aiming to reduce
carbon emissions in the naval sector. The above study
employs an analytical model combined with an economic
prefeasibility analysis and uses MATLAB simulations to
assess the performance and economic metrics of dierent
plant configurations, with a focus on the optimal sizing
of wind farms and hydrogen production capacity. The
above study has revealed that the LCOH can be below
$4.37/kg for a wide range of plant capacities, suggesting
that oshore liquefied hydrogen production plants are
economically feasible.
Rezaei, Akimov, and Gray (2024) have modeled the cost
and eciency of hydrogen production from oshore wind
power in Australia via a dynamic system that accounts for
real-world factors such as economies of scale, learning
by doing, and the variable nature of wind power input.
The study has revealed that the LCOH can be reduced to
approximately $2.6/kg in the “fast progress” scenario by
2040, given a rapid scale-up and lower financial costs.
The study assumes that PEM technology will continue
to dominate hydrogen production from oshore wind.
Moreover, Cheng and Hughes (2023) have explored
the role of oshore wind in Australia’s renewable
hydrogen production via a least-cost optimization model
to simulate energy flows and optimize the capacities
of oshore wind, solar photovoltaics (PV), battery
storage, and electrolyzers. The study has revealed that
a hybrid renewable energy system can reduce hydrogen
production costs to $2.96-$3.71/kg by 2030.
Hill et al. (2024) have developed a technoeconomic model
that incorporates Monte Carlo simulations to account
for uncertainties to determine the cost competitiveness
of hydrogen produced from oshore wind power and
12
The Economics of Oshore Wind-Based Hydrogen Production in Saudi Arabia
compared dierent electrolysis technologies. The
results indicate that hydrogen produced through alkaline
electrolysis (AEL) is the most cost-eective type of
hydrogen, with an LCOH of €7.66/kg in the base case,
which is potentially lower under optimized scenarios. In
contrast to other studies that prefer PEMEL over AEL, the
above paper argues that the modular nature of operating
98 AEL stacks allows the system to adapt to intermittent
generation. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC)
has a strong influence on the LCOH in all the scenarios.
Rogeau et al. (2023) have conducted a resource
assessment across Europe, employing a detailed cost
modeling approach combined with geospatial analysis.
The study estimates that more than 1000 terawatt hours
(TWh) of green hydrogen could be produced at a price
below $3.3/kg by 2030, making it competitive with gray
hydrogen. The above study has highlighted the potential
of decentralized oshore electrolysis configurations
in maximizing the use of Europe’s extensive oshore
wind resources.
Lucas et al. (2022) have analyzed the feasibility of
producing hydrogen via electricity generated from the
WindFloat Atlantic oshore wind farm in Portugal. The
study considers PEM electrolyzer systems and evaluates
the costs and benefits of hydrogen production under
dierent electricity price conditions. Hydrogen production
from oshore wind energy can become profitable at
$4.40/kg LCOH with larger wind farm capacities and
when hydrogen is produced during periods of low
electricity prices. Calado et al. (2024) have assessed
the technoeconomic viability of hydrogen production
associated with oshore wind farms, taking the Iberian
Peninsula as a case study. The study involves the
modeling and simulation of the following two hydrogen
production systems: one with an oshore electrolyzer
and another with an onshore electrolyzer. The onshore
electrolyzer system is more economically viable than
is the oshore system, mainly because of its ability to
purchase electricity from the grid, resulting in a lower
LCOH. The LCOH for the onshore system decreases
significantly from 2020 to 2030 and then to 2050 as
follows: €5.84/kg ($6.15/kg), €3.42/kg ($3.60/kg), and
€2.57/kg ($2.71/kg). In the oshore electrolyzer case, the
LCOH is €8.98/kg ($9.47/kg), €4.37/kg ($4.61/kg), and
€2.68/kg ($2.83/kg).
Guven’s (2024) study employs life cycle assessment
(LCA) via GREET to assess the environmental impact and
economic feasibility of producing green hydrogen via
oshore wind power. The paper concludes that while
oshore wind-driven green hydrogen production has
significant environmental benefits, achieving economic
viability requires targeted incentives. The LCOH is
estimated at $4.36/kg under the base scenario, which is
not profitable under the current corporate tax rate. Akdağ
(2023) has focused on the operation of green hydrogen
production via oshore wind in Turkey, highlighting the
importance of infrastructure investments and supportive
policies. The study estimates that the cost per kg of
hydrogen could drop from €6.26/kg ($6.60/kg) in 2023
to €1.13/kg ($1.19/kg) by 2050. The analysis also shows
that despite initial high costs, green hydrogen can
become a viable alternative for fueling stations and the
transportation sector with proper policy support and
technological advancements.
Farahmand, Günther, and Kristiansen (2024) have
explored the potential benefit of hydrogen in terms of
the oshore wind utilization rate in the North Sea. The
study uses a deterministic optimization model (PowerGIM)
to assess the optimal transmission expansion plan and
generation expansion plan for the North Sea Oshore
Grid, including the integration of a PEM electrolyzer for
hydrogen production. Their study finds that coupling
hydrogen with oshore wind can reduce wind curtailment
and drive the LCOH to €1.4/kg ($1.47/kg) by 2040
when electrolyzer demand is optimized in a market
context. Komorowska, Benalcazar, and Kamiński (2023)
have focused on assessing the competitiveness and
uncertainty of oshore wind-to-hydrogen production
systems in Poland and used a Monte-Carlo-based
framework to analyze location-based variability and
long-term planning uncertainties. By analyzing 23
planned oshore wind farm locations in Poland, the
LCOH for oshore wind-to-hydrogen is estimated to be
between €3.60 ($3.79/kg) and €3.71/kg ($3.90/kg) in
2030 and between €2.05 ($2.16/kg) and €2.15/kg ($2.26/
kg) in 2050. The study finds that electricity prices and
electrolyzer utilization rates are the main cost drivers of
the LCOH.
Díaz-Motta, Díaz-González, and Villa-Arriet (2023)
have evaluated the long-term sustainability and
competitiveness of producing renewable ammonia
via oshore wind energy, focusing on the production
process, technological advancements, and potential cost
reductions in the coming decades. The analysis finds
that the high production costs of oshore wind-powered
ammonia (ranging from $600 to $1,500/t NH₃) currently
pose a barrier to its deployment.
The LCOH is highly sensitive to several region-specific
factors, such as natural resources, the cost of electricity,
13
The Economics of Oshore Wind-Based Hydrogen Production in Saudi Arabia
infrastructure, and technological advancements. For
Saudi Arabia, understanding the real economics of
producing hydrogen from oshore wind is essential
for assessing the feasibility of this option as a viable
green hydrogen source. Moreover, benchmarking its
competitiveness against international figures is important
given Saudi Arabia’s ambition to become a leader in the
energy transition.
As summarized in Table 1, no previous technoeconomic
study has specifically assessed the integration of oshore
wind into hydrogen production in Saudi Arabia. This
study aims to fill this gap by developing a transparent
deterministic cost model for the LCOH, focused on the
natural resources of Saudi Arabia. Through a detailed
case study of a selected wind farm location in the Red
Sea, this research will evaluate the cost-eectiveness
and eciency of onshore versus oshore hydrogen
electrolysis. By identifying specific cost drivers, this study
will inform policymakers and industry stakeholders in
focusing on targeted innovations, realistic timelines, and
research and development (R&D) investments that have
the greatest potential to lower costs.
14
The Economics of Oshore Wind-Based Hydrogen Production in Saudi Arabia
Table 1. Comparison of oshore wind-based hydrogen production studies.
Reference Location Objective Methodology Components
assessed
Results
Farahmand,
Günther, and
Kristiansen
(2024)
North Sea,
Europe
This paper assesses
the business case for
integrating oshore wind
with green hydrogen
production in the North
Sea while considering the
future development of an
integrated oshore grid.
This study uses a deterministic
optimization model (PowerGIM)
to optimize the North Sea
oshore grid’s expansion plans,
integrating a PEM electrolyzer
for hydrogen production. The
analysis is based on the TYNDP
2020 Global Ambition scenario
for 2040.
Fixed wind turbines,
PEM electrolyzers,
the direct coupling
of wind and
electrolysis, and the
hydrogen pipeline.
Combining a 5-GW PEM
electrolyzer with oshore
wind farms reduces wind
curtailment and boosts
electricity market revenue.
This study suggests that the
LCOH could drop to €1.4/
kg H2, with power costs as
the main factor. Sensitivity
analysis shows the LCOH
ranging between €1.2 and
€1.6/kg of hydrogen in
2030 based on electrolyzer
CAPEX, lifetime, and
eciency variations.
Calado et al.
(2024)
Iberian
Peninsula
This study assesses the
feasibility and economic
potential of integrating
hydrogen production with
oshore wind farms in the
Iberian Peninsula.
This study involves the modeling
and simulation of the following
two hydrogen production
systems: one with an oshore
electrolyzer and another with
an onshore electrolyzer. An
hourly optimization algorithm
and neural network forecasts are
used to assess day-ahead power
production and electricity prices.
Floating wind
turbines, HVAC
cables, oshore
central platform,
PEM electrolyzer,
desalination unit,
compressor,
hydrogen pipeline,
hydrogen storage,
fuel cell, and
transmission cables.
The onshore electrolyzer
system is more economically
viable than is the oshore
system due to its ability to
purchase electricity from
the grid, resulting in a lower
LCOH. The LCOH for the
onshore system decreases
significantly from 2020 to
2030 and then to 2050:
€5.84/kg, €3.42/kg, and
€2.57/kg. While the oshore
electrolyzer case LCOH is
€8.98/kg, €4.37/kg, and
€2.68/kg.
(Continued)
15
The Economics of Oshore Wind-Based Hydrogen Production in Saudi Arabia
Reference Location Objective Methodology Components
assessed
Results
Bonacina,
Bordbar
Gaskare,
and Valenti
(2022)
Mediterranean
Sea, Italy
To explore the viability of
creating oshore liquefied
hydrogen production
plants powered by wind
energy for the purpose
of refueling ships, this
work aims to reduce
carbon emissions in the
naval sector.
This study employs an analytical
model combined with an
economic prefeasibility analysis.
MATLAB simulations are used
to assess the performance
and economic metrics of
dierent plant configurations,
focusing on the optimal sizing
of wind farms and hydrogen
production capacities.
Fixed wind
turbines, floating
wind turbines,
desalination unit,
electrolyzer,
liquification plant,
hydrogen storage,
and ship transport.
The study finds that the
LCOH can be below €4/
kg for a wide range of plant
capacities, and the optimal
electrolyzer capacity is
between 80% and 90%
of the wind farm capacity.
The payback time can be
reduced to below 11 years
if the wind farm capacity is
more than 150 MW.
Díaz- Motta,
az-
González,
and Villa-
Arrieta
(2023)
To evaluate the long-
term sustainability and
competitiveness of
producing renewable
ammonia using oshore
wind energy, this study
focuses on the production
process, technological
advancements, and
potential cost reductions
in the coming decades.
This study conducts a literature
review and quantitative analysis,
comparing the production costs,
energy consumption, eciency,
and CO emissions of oshore
wind-powered ammonia with
fossil-based (steam methane
reforming) and low-emission
ammonia (SMR-carbon capture
and storage).
Fixed wind
turbines, floating
wind turbines,
desalination unit,
electrolyzer, air
separation unit, and
ammonia synthesis.
The analysis finds that the
high production costs of
oshore wind-powered
ammonia (ranging from
$600 to $1,500/t NH₃)
currently pose a barrier to
its deployment. However,
improvements in solid
oxide electrolysis (SOEL)
technology and reductions
in CAPEX could make it
competitive in the future.
Komorowska,
Benalcazar,
and Kamiński
(2023)
Baltic Sea,
Poland
This work aims to evaluate
the competitiveness
of green hydrogen
production from oshore
wind farms in Poland by
analyzing the LCOH and
exploring uncertainties
in the planning and
development of
these systems.
The study uses a Monte-Carlo-
based framework to assess
the LCOH for oshore wind-to-
hydrogen systems, considering
23 planned oshore wind farm
locations in the Baltic Sea. The
analysis includes a comparison
with onshore wind-to-hydrogen
systems for 2030 and 2050.
Fixed wind turbines,
PEM electrolyzer,
transmission cables,
and water prices.
The LCOH for oshore
wind-to-hydrogen in Poland
is estimated to be between
3.60 and €3.71/kg in 2030
and between €2.05 and
€2.15/kg in 2050. This study
finds that electricity prices
and electrolyzer utilization
rates are the main cost
drivers for the LCOH.
(Continued)
16
The Economics of Oshore Wind-Based Hydrogen Production in Saudi Arabia
Reference Location Objective Methodology Components
assessed
Results
Lucas et al.
(2022)
Atlantic
Ocean,
Portugal
This study aims to
assess the feasibility
and economic viability
of producing hydrogen
from oshore wind
energy, specifically using
the WindFloat Atlantic
oshore wind farm as a
case study. This study
also evaluates dierent
scenarios for hydrogen
production and potential
profits from oxygen sales.
The study adopts a
technoeconomic analysis,
considering the following two
scenarios: one with the current
25.2-MW capacity of the
WindFloat Atlantic wind farm and
another with a future expanded
capacity of 150 MW. The study
considers PEM electrolyzer
systems and evaluates the
costs and benefits of hydrogen
production under dierent
electricity price conditions.
Floating wind
turbines, PEM
electrolyzer,
water treatment,
compressor,
hydrogen storage,
HVAC cables,
and substation.
The study finds that
hydrogen production is more
economically viable in the
long-term scenario with a
150-MW wind farm capacity
than in the other scenario.
The lowest hydrogen
production costs are
achieved when hydrogen is
produced during both night
and afternoon periods, with
the potential for profitable
operations depending on
electricity prices and the
inclusion of oxygen sales.
Guven (2024) Aegean Sea,
Turkey
This work assesses the
environmental impact
and economic feasibility
of producing green
hydrogen using oshore
wind power, with a
focus on minimizing
greenhouse gas emissions
and optimizing the
cost-eectiveness of
the technology.
This study employs LCA using
GREET 2023 and life cycle
cost analysis (LCCA) under
various economic scenarios,
including STEPS, APS, and NZE,
to evaluate the environmental
and financial performance of
the green hydrogen production
system. Global climate models
(GCMs) are used to predict wind
speeds for system sizing.
Fixed wind turbines,
PEM electrolyzer,
hydrogen storage,
transmission cables,
and substation.
The global warming potential
(GWP) of the system is
0.7 kgCO2-eq./kgH2 for a
20-year horizon and 0.753
kgCO2-eq./kgH2 for a 100-
year horizon. The LCOH is
estimated at $4.36/kgH2
under the base scenario.
This study finds that the
system is not profitable
under the current corporate
tax rate without incentives,
with internal rates of return
(IRRs) below the expected
cost of equity.
(Continued)
17
The Economics of Oshore Wind-Based Hydrogen Production in Saudi Arabia
Reference Location Objective Methodology Components
assessed
Results
Hill et al.
(2024)
Oshore, UK This study aims to
determine the cost
competitiveness of
hydrogen produced from
oshore wind power,
comparing dierent
electrolysis technologies
(alkaline and PEM) and
considering the impact of
integrating grid electricity
and salt-cavern storage
for hydrogen production.
This study aims to inform
strategies for lowering the
LCOH to compete with
conventional hydrogen
production methods.
The study develops a
technoeconomic model,
incorporating Monte Carlo
simulations to account for
uncertainties, and evaluates the
following three scenarios: AEL,
PEMEL, and a grid electricity-
backed AEL system. The model
considers CAPEX, OPEX, and
hydrogen production eciency
under each scenario, alongside
sensitivity analyses to identify
key cost drivers.
Fixed wind turbines,
substations,
PEM and AEL
electrolyzers,
desalination unit,
compressor,
hydrogen pipe,
hydrogen storage,
oshore central
platform, and
transmission cables.
The results indicate that the
AEL-driven cost of hydrogen
production (€8.38/kgH2) is
only three times that of SMR
+ CCS-generated hydrogen.
PEMEL-driven hydrogen
production has a higher
cost (€10.49/kgH2). This
study identifies the WACC,
wind farm CAPEX, and
electrolyzer eciency as the
most significant cost drivers.
Akdağ (2023) Aegean Sea,
Turkey
This study presents a
comprehensive model
for the installation and
operation of a green
hydrogen production
facility powered by
oshore wind and to
evaluate its economic
viability, particularly in
the context of supplying
hydrogen fuel stations
in Turkey. This study
also aims to identify
the challenges and
potential solutions for
the widespread adoption
of green hydrogen
technology in the
transportation sector.
The study uses a
technoeconomic analysis
approach, incorporating data
on wind potential, desalination,
and electrolysis technology.
This work includes a case
study for the Edirne-Enez
location in Turkey, where the
oshore wind potential and
water availability are analyzed
to determine the feasibility of
setting up a green hydrogen
production facility. The analysis
also covers the cost of hydrogen
production and the associated
infrastructure, including storage
and transportation to hydrogen
fuel stations.
Fixed wind turbines,
PEM electrolyzer,
hydrogen
storage, and truck
hydrogen transport.
The results indicate that
the cost of producing green
hydrogen through oshore
wind could decrease
significantly by 2050, making
it competitive with other
forms of hydrogen. This
study estimates that the cost
per kilogram of hydrogen
could drop from €6.26/kg in
2023 to €1.13/kg by 2050.
The analysis also shows
that despite initial high
costs, green hydrogen can
become a viable alternative
for fueling stations and the
transportation sector with
proper policy support and
technological advancements.
(Continued)
18
The Economics of Oshore Wind-Based Hydrogen Production in Saudi Arabia
Reference Location Objective Methodology Components
assessed
Results
Cheng and
Hughes
(2023)
Oshore,
Australia
This work investigates the
role of oshore wind in a
hybrid renewable energy
system for hydrogen
production in Australia,
particularly focusing on
cost optimization and the
integration of oshore
wind into other renewable
energy sources like
solar PV.
The study uses a least-cost
optimization model to simulate
energy flows and optimize the
capacities of oshore wind,
solar PV, battery storage, and
electrolyzers over a 10-year
period. The model evaluates
dierent scenarios, including
varying levels of solar PV
contribution and cost reductions.
Fixed wind turbines,
solar PV, pumped
hydrostorage,
battery storage,
PEM electrolyzer,
and HVDC cables.
This study finds that oshore
wind plays a significant role
in hydrogen production,
especially in regions with
strong wind resources.
The cost of hydrogen can
be competitive with solar
PV-dominated systems under
certain conditions. However,
achieving a low-cost
hydrogen production system
requires further reductions
in the costs of oshore wind
and electrolyzers.
Giampieri,
Ling-Chin,
and Roskilly
(2024)
North Sea, UK This study analyzes the
economic feasibility of
dierent oshore wind-
to-hydrogen production
scenarios in the UK,
focusing on the LCOH for
compressed, liquefied,
and chemically bonded
hydrogen, and to provide
insights into the most
cost-eective strategies
for future projects.
This study employs a TEA
approach, using simulation
models to analyze the costs
and technical requirements
of hydrogen production,
storage, and transportation
scenarios. Data for capital and
operating costs are collected,
and scenarios are developed
to estimate the LCOH under
various conditions.
Fixed wind turbines,
substations, PEM
electrolyzer,
desalination unit,
liquification unit,
ammonia synthesis,
compressor,
hydrogen pipe,
hydrogen storage,
liquid ship tanker,
and HVDC cables.
This study finds that
compressed hydrogen
produced oshore and
transported via pipeline
is the most cost-eective
scenario for projects starting
in 2025, with the LCOH
potentially reaching £2/
kg of hydrogen or lower
by 2050. The economic
feasibility of each scenario
varies significantly based
on storage periods and
distances to shore.
(Continued)
19
The Economics of Oshore Wind-Based Hydrogen Production in Saudi Arabia
Reference Location Objective Methodology Components
assessed
Results
Rogeau et al.
(2023)
Oshore,
Europe
This work aims to develop
a unified cost model that
incorporates various
configurations (onshore,
centralized oshore, and
decentralized oshore
electrolysis) and to
perform a resource
assessment at the
European scale. This study
aims to identify the most
economically attractive
sites for hydrogen
production from oshore
wind by 2050.
This study employs a detailed
cost modeling approach
combined with geospatial
analysis to assess the LCOH
across dierent sites in Europe.
The analysis includes onshore
and oshore electrolysis
configurations and considers
future projections of turbine and
electrolyzer costs.
Fixed wind turbines,
PEM electrolyzer,
desalination
unit, oshore
central platform,
turbine integrated
electrolysis,
hydrogen pipe,
HVDC cables,
and substations.
This study finds that the
LCOH could fall from €4.50-
€7.50/kg in 2020 to €1.50-
3.00/kg in 2020 to 1.53.0
/kg by 2050 as costs
decrease. More than 1,000
TWh of green hydrogen
could be produced at a price
below €3.0/kg by 2030,
making it competitive with
gray hydrogen. Oshore
electrolysis becomes
increasingly relevant closer
to shore over time.
Rezaei,
Akimov, and
Gray (2024)
Oshore,
Australia
This study models the
cost and eciency of
hydrogen production from
oshore wind power using
a dynamic system that
accounts for real-world
factors such as economies
of scale, learning by doing,
and the variable nature
of wind power input. This
study aims to determine
the LCOH under
dierent scenarios.
This study uses a detailed
technoeconomic model
that incorporates dynamic
electrolyzer eciency, air
density-adjusted wind speeds,
and plant-level losses to simulate
hydrogen production. The model
is applied to various oshore
wind sites in Australia to assess
the feasibility of achieving a
competitive LCOH by 2040.
Fixed wind
turbines, PEM
electrolyzer, central
oshore platform,
compressor, and
hydrogen storage.
This study finds that the
LCOH can be reduced to
below AU$3/kg (US$2/
kg) in the “fast progress”
scenario by 2040, given a
rapid scale-up and lower
financial costs. Dynamic
eciency and well-planned
energy management
strategies are crucial in
achieving cost-competitive
hydrogen production.
(Continued)
20
The Economics of Oshore Wind-Based Hydrogen Production in Saudi Arabia
Reference Location Objective Methodology Components
assessed
Results
Kang,
Gbadago,
and Hwang
(2024)
Oshore,
Republic of
Korea
This work aims to
determine the LCOH for
both gaseous and liquid
hydrogen produced using
floating oshore wind
turbines and to assess
the economic viability of
dierent transportation
methods for hydrogen
in Korea.
The study uses Aspen Plus
and Custom Modeler to
model PEMEL and hydrogen
liquefaction processes,
includes a sensitivity analysis
of transportation methods and
costs, and considers real-
time wind data for modeling
power generation.
Floating wind
turbines, PEM
electrolyzer,
water treatment,
compressor,
hydrogen pipe,
liquification
unit, and truck
H2 transport.
This study finds that liquid
hydrogen is more cost-
eective at scales up to 250
MW, with an LCOH of $11.04/
kg H2. However, gaseous
hydrogen becomes less
expensive as production
scales exceed 500 MW due
to its greater sensitivity to
production volume.
Groenemans
et al. (2022)
Atlantic
Ocean, U.S.
This study evaluates the
economic viability and
eciency of producing
hydrogen directly at
oshore wind sites using
PEMEL, comparing it
to traditional methods
where electricity is
transmitted to shore for
hydrogen production.
This study uses a TEA approach,
modeling the hydrogen
production process using
real wind data and comparing
costs across methods. The
assumptions include a 14-MW GE
turbine and a pipeline length of
60 km.
Fixed wind turbines,
transmission
cables, and
PEM electrolyzer.
The results show that the
LCOH from direct oshore
wind electrolysis could
be as low as $2.09/kg H2,
compared to $3.86/kg H2
from traditional electrolysis
using transmitted electricity.
This work Red Sea,
Saudi Arabia
This work aims to evaluate
the LCOH of green
hydrogen production from
oshore wind in Saudi
Arabia, with a focus on
assessing the feasibility
of this option as a viable
green hydrogen source.
This study uses a deterministic
technoeconomic assessment
of green hydrogen production
from oshore wind in Saudi
Arabia, comparing centralized
onshore and oshore
electrolysis approaches. This
study analyzes the LCOH for
both scenarios, identifies the
key cost drivers, and assesses
the competitiveness of each
approach for large-scale
hydrogen production.
Floating wind
turbines,
substations, PEM
electrolyzer,
desalination unit,
compressor,
hydrogen pipe,
oshore central
platform, and
HVAC cables.
This study aims to provide
a transparent deterministic
cost model for the LCOH
from floating oshore wind
power in the context of
Saudi Arabia.
21
The Economics of Oshore Wind-Based Hydrogen Production in Saudi Arabia
3. Technoeconomic
Assessment of
Hydrogen Production
from Offshore Wind
in Saudi Arabia
In this study, the following two cases will be compared: onshore electrolysis
and centralized oshore electrolysis. Decentralized hydrogen production
will be discussed qualitatively. The analysis will begin with the selection of a
suitable oshore wind farm location. Locating oshore wind farms is based
on a prior study, and turbines will be located 35-km oshore at water depths
of approximately 720 m, opposite Duba port in the Red Sea. The wind farm’s
capacity will be set to 1,000 MW, chosen to represent a GW-scale project, which
is reasonable for oshore wind development and provides a reference point
for scaling costs up or down for various project sizes. The capital expenditure
(CAPEX) estimates will be derived from BVG Associates’ guidelines for FOWF
costs (BVGA 2023). While the cost estimates and projections from BVGA will
provide a valuable reference for understanding the potential cost structure
of floating oshore wind, these figures are based primarily on conditions and
markets in Europe, where floating wind technology and supply chains are
more mature. In the context of Saudi Arabia, unique local factors, such as site-
specific conditions, infrastructure readiness, and supply chain maturity, may lead
to cost variances. Nonetheless, BVGAs guidelines will oer a solid foundation
for the technical assumption and provide insights into how costs may evolve
as the industry matures globally, which can inform preliminary assessments for
Saudi oshore wind projects. CAPEX encompasses development and project
management, wind turbines, the balance of plants, and installation costs.
22
The Economics of Oshore Wind-Based Hydrogen Production in Saudi Arabia
Aqaba
Tabouk
Al-Tubayq
Natural Reserve
St. Catherine’s
Reserve
Duba Port
Potential Suitable
Locations for FOWFs
Protected Areas
Saudi Admin Boundary
Esri, FAO, NOAA, USGS, Esri, HERE,
Garmin, FAO, NOAA, USGS, Esri, USGS
KM
0 25 50 100 150
The Red Sea
Sea Port
N
Yanbu Commercial Port
Yanbu
King Fahd Industrial
Port in Yanbu
SAUDI
ARABIA
Al Madinah
3862 km2
4593 km2
Hijaz Mountains
Hijaz Mountains
IRAN
Tabuk
Me
South Sinai
Figure 2. Potential areas for floating oshore wind project development.
Source: Albalawi et al. 2024.
23
The Economics of Oshore Wind-Based Hydrogen Production in Saudi Arabia
3.1 Hydrogen
Production from
Onshore Electrolysis
In the case of transmitting generated electricity to
shore, HVAC transmission is assumed because of the
relatively short distance involved. Oshore and onshore
substations are employed to optimize power conversion
and ensure ecient transmission. Our model shows
that the CAPEX of the wind farm, including the export
cables for the onshore electrolysis case, is $4,993/
kW. Additionally, the operation and maintenance (O&M)
costs are assumed to be 2% of the total CAPEX per year.
Decommission costs are estimated at 4% of CAPEX
(BVGA 2023).
To estimate the wind farm’s annual energy production, we
start by calculating the capacity factor (CF). This is done
via a methodology similar to that outlined in Chandler and
Whitlock (2005), which involves analyzing hourly wind
speed data against the turbine power curve. Wind speed
data are obtained from NASA’s power tool for the period
from 2021 to 2023. We choose a three-year average to
account for annual and seasonal variations in wind speed.
The wind speed data are then adjusted to a hub height of
136 m, which corresponds to the NREL annual technology
baseline turbine used in our analysis (NREL 2021). Wind
speed is adjusted via Gipe’s power law, and a surface
roughness exponent of 0.1 is used for open water (Gipe
1999). Next, we employ the specified power curve of the
15-MW NREL model turbine to correlate the adjusted wind
speeds with the estimated power output.
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0
Rated power (MW)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Wind speed (m/s)
Source: NREL 2021.
Figure 3. NREL ATB reference 15-MW turbine power curve.
24
The Economics of Oshore Wind-Based Hydrogen Production in Saudi Arabia
The CF is then calculated by dividing the total annual estimated power output by the theoretical maximum energy that can
be produced, which is the product of the turbine’s rated capacity and the total number of hours in a year:
 
 
Our analysis yields a CF of 38.51%. Table 1 outlines the specific characteristics of the wind farm.
Using the above inputs, we calculate the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for the wind farm over the project life cycle
using a discount rate (r) of 5% as follows:

  
󰇛 󰇜

󰇛 󰇜
Equation 1
The resulting LCOE for the 1,000-MW oshore wind farm is calculated to be approximately 1$124.19/MWh, including the
export cables used to transmit the power to shore.
To estimate the LCOH, the characteristics of the PEM electrolyzers are assumed, as shown in Table 2.
Table 2. Characteristics of the oshore wind farm.
Characteristics Value Reference
Site latitude 27.49 Selected site
Site longitude 35.05 Selected site
Distance from shore (km) 35 Selected site
Water depth (m) 720 Selected site
Wind farm capacity (MW) 1000 Assumed
Turbine rated power (MW) 15 NREL 2021
Turbine rotor diameter (m) 240 NREL 2021
Inter-array cable length (m) 100,500 Hill et al. 2024
Annual average wind speed at hub height (m/s) 7.04 NASA 2024
CF (%) 38.51 Model result
Discount rate (%) 5 Assumed
CAPEX ($/kW) 4,993.39 Total CAPEX
Development and project management ($/kW) 191.45 BVGA 2023
Wind turbine ($/kW) 1,755.4 BVGA 2023; DNV 2023
Balance of plant ($/kW) 2,884.29 BVGA 2023; DNV 2023
OPEX (% of CAPEX) 2 BVGA 2023; DNV 2023
Project life (years) 30 NREL 2021
Decommissioning (% of CAPEX) 4BVGA 2023
25
The Economics of Oshore Wind-Based Hydrogen Production in Saudi Arabia
The LCOH is a key metric used to determine the cost-eectiveness of hydrogen production over the lifetime of a
project and is calculated via the following formula:

  
󰇛 󰇜

󰇛 󰇜
Equation 2
Table 3. Characteristics of the PEM onshore electrolyzers.
Characteristics Value Reference
Capacity of stack (MW) 20 Alhadhrami et al. 2024
Number of electrolyzer stacks 27 Model result
CAPEX ($/kW) 1450 Alhadhrami et al. 2024
OPEX (% of CAPEX) 2.5 Alhadhrami et al. 2024
Water consumption (L/kg) 9Alhadhrami et al. 2024
Eciency (%) 80 Alhadhrami et al. 2024
Energy input for 1 kg of hydrogen produced (kWh/kg) 50 Model result
Discount rate (%) 5 Assumed
Here, CAPEX includes the initial investment in wind
turbines, electrolysis systems, desalination units,
platforms, and pipelines (as applicable). Operational
expenditure (OPEX) covers ongoing maintenance,
operational costs, energy input for electrolysis, and any
other recurring expenses.
After performing the cost analysis over the expected
project lifetime, the LCOH is found to be $6.47/kg,
reflecting the weak cost-eectiveness of producing
hydrogen via oshore wind under the given assumption.
To put this finding into perspective, a previous KAPSARC
analysis showed that the LCOH using solar PV power is
approximately $3/kg (Alhadhrami et al. 2024). Clearly,
a significant reduction in the cost of FOWF technology
is needed before it can be competitive with onshore
renewable energy.
Onshore electrolysis using oshore wind energy
benefits from established onshore infrastructure and
reduces the need for complex oshore platforms and
equipment, making its O&M easier. However, despite
these advantages, the LCOH for onshore electrolysis
using FOWFs is notably greater than is that for onshore
electrolysis using solar PV. Currently, the LCOH for
oshore floating-wind-based hydrogen production
is significantly higher than is that of solar PV-based
systems in Saudi Arabia. This significant cost disparity
presents a challenge for the economic competitiveness
of hydrogen production from oshore wind in the
current market.
3.2 Hydrogen
Production from
Central Oshore
Electrolysis
Central oshore hydrogen production presents a
compelling approach to harnessing oshore wind energy
by centralizing the electrolysis process on an oshore
platform. For oshore hydrogen production, the wind
farm CAPEX is adjusted to exclude the costs of export
cables and substations, as no electrical energy needs
to be transmitted onshore. The 30 wind turbines are
connected via inner-array cables to an oshore platform
where the electrolyzers are centrally located. Additional
costs in this setup include the oshore platform,
desalination unit, compressors, and gas pipeline used to
transport the generated hydrogen to shore. The cost of
a new dedicated hydrogen pipeline, which factors in the
26
The Economics of Oshore Wind-Based Hydrogen Production in Saudi Arabia
pipeline and compressor, is approximately $3.11 million/
km (Kotek, Takácsné Tóth, and Selei 2023).
The desalination system is sized to be 80% of the
electrolyzer capacity to account for a buer in the
desalination system capacity (Rogeau et al. 2023). The
cost of the desalination system is estimated via CAPEX
to be approximately $0.022/kg of hydrogen produced
(Singlitico, Østergaard, and Chatzivasileiadis 2021;
Donkers 2020). This simplified assumption allows for
direct cost estimation on the basis of hydrogen output.
The cost of floating oshore platforms for centralized
hydrogen production in waters deeper than 150 m,
where floating foundations are needed, is not explicitly
provided in the available data. However, this cost is
generally recognized as being high due to engineering
complexities and installation challenges at such
depths (Rogeau et al. 2023; Singlitico, Østergaard,
and Chatzivasileiadis 2021). Floating platforms, while
oering flexibility in deep waters, are associated with
higher maintenance costs and risks due to factors such
as movement from wind and waves and vulnerability to
external damage (Gerrits 2017).
The CAPEX assumptions for these balance-of-plant
components are detailed in Table 3. The resulting
LCOH is calculated to be $8.01/kg, which is higher
than that in the case where the electrolyzers are
placed onshore.
Figure 4. CAPEX shares of the main components for the two scenarios.
Wind turbines Project finance Desalination unit Oshore central platform
PEM electrolyzers Pipeline and compressorWind farm BOS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Oshore electrolysis
Percentage
Onshore electrolysis
Source: Authors.
Table 4. Costs of the oshore hydrogen balance-of-system (BOS) components.
Characteristics Value Reference
Desalination CAPEX ($/kg hydrogen) 0.022 Singlitico et al. 2021; Donkers 2020; Hill et al. 2024;
Scottish Government 2020
Pipeline and compressor CAPEX ($/m) 3,110 Kotek et al. 2023; Hill et al. 2024; Scottish
Government 2020
Oshore platform CAPEX ($/MW) 1,668,300 Hill et al. 2024; Scottish Government 2020
27
The Economics of Oshore Wind-Based Hydrogen Production in Saudi Arabia
The high LCOH for the onshore electrolysis case stems
primarily from the higher CAPEX associated with FOWFs
than with other types of wind farms. The installation
and maintenance costs of oshore turbines, the need
for high-voltage transmission infrastructure to bring
electricity onshore, and the inherent logistical challenges
of operating in harsh marine environments increase the
overall cost of hydrogen production.
For onshore electrolysis using oshore wind to become
economically competitive with solar PV, substantial
reductions in the cost of FOWFs are necessary. Advances
in technology, economies of scale, and improved
deployment techniques are essential to reduce the
costs of floating wind turbines and reduce the LCOH
for hydrogen production. As floating wind technology
matures, the potential for cost reductions can make
oshore wind a more attractive option for hydrogen
production in the future. The case for oshore wind in
hydrogen production may also become stronger as
land availability constraints for solar PV become stricter,
especially in densely populated regions or areas with
limited suitable land for solar development.
The CAPEX share of wind farm BOS decreases to $4,245/
kW for the oshore electrolysis case, as no electrical
transmission to shore is needed. Although the share of
PEM electrolyzers is slightly lower than that of onshore
electrolyzers, the overall cost increases because of the
additional expenses associated with oshore installation
and infrastructure. However, the costs related to the
central oshore platform, which hosts the electrolyzers,
are significant. This platform introduces substantial
cost uncertainty, and its high CAPEX share complicates
accurate project feasibility assessments. Furthermore, this
uncertainty makes it challenging to estimate the potential
large-scale benefits of oshore hydrogen production.
Theoretically, aggregating power outputs from several
wind farms and transporting the energy to shore as
hydrogen via a single pipeline appears advantageous.
In contrast, the electrical transmission of wind power to
shore requires each project to incur the same high costs
for substations and transmission lines. While the concept
of aggregating multiple wind farms seems promising,
current figures do not clearly indicate at what scale this
approach becomes economically favorable, further
complicating the assessment of its long-term feasibility.
Sensitivity analysis is conducted on the LCOH model for
the oshore electrolysis case to determine the primary
cost drivers for each scenario. In this analysis, the input
parameters are adjusted to their respective limits for each
scenario, with only one parameter altered at a time from the
baseline scenario to observe its impact on the LCOH. The
reduction range of 30% is based on a study by Catapult
(2021), which reveals that FOWF costs could decrease by
30%-50% by 2030, driven primarily by scaling turbine sizes,
economies of scale, and technological advancements.
A similar cost reduction is projected for electrolyzers,
with Fraunhofer (2021) estimating an ~30% decline in
electrolyzer costs by 2030 due to advancements in stack
components and manufacturing processes. The outcomes
of the sensitivity analysis are presented in Table 5. An
additional sensitivity analysis combining cost reductions in
the three main components simultaneously is considered
for both the onshore and oshore electrolysis cases to
estimate an optimistic lower bound for the LCOH. The
resulting range is between $4.57 and $6.07/kg.
Table 5. Sensitivity results for the oshore electrolysis case.
Input variableInput variable Base scenarioBase scenario Sensitivity analysisSensitivity analysis New LCOH ($/kg)New LCOH ($/kg) Change %Change %
Baseline LCOHBaseline LCOH 8.018.01
Turbine foundationTurbine foundation FloatingFloating FixedFixed 6.526.52 −19−19
Wind farm CAPEXWind farm CAPEX Business as Business as
usual (BAU)usual (BAU)
30% reduction30% reduction 6.736.73 −16−16
Electrolyzer CAPEXElectrolyzer CAPEX BAUBAU 30% reduction30% reduction 7.67.6 −5−5
Central oshore platform CAPEXCentral oshore platform CAPEX BAUBAU 30% reduction30% reduction 7.677.67 −4−4
Wind farm, electrolyzer, and Wind farm, electrolyzer, and
central oshore platform CAPEXcentral oshore platform CAPEX
BAUBAU 30% reduction30% reduction 6.076.07 −24−24
Discount rateDiscount rate 5%5% 3%3% 6.966.96 −13−13
28
The Economics of Oshore Wind-Based Hydrogen Production in Saudi Arabia
4. Discussion
Onshore electrolysis using oshore wind energy benefits from established
onshore infrastructure and reduces the need for complex oshore platforms
and equipment, making O&M easier. However, despite these advantages,
the LCOH for onshore electrolysis using FOWFs is notably greater than is
that for onshore electrolysis using solar PV. Currently, on the basis of our
results, the LCOH for oshore floating-wind-based hydrogen production is
approximately three times greater than is that of solar PV-based systems
in Saudi Arabia. This significant cost disparity presents a challenge for the
economic competitiveness of hydrogen production from oshore wind in
the current market. Nonetheless, ongoing advancements in technology,
supply chain maturity, and key component cost reductions are expected to
significantly lower these costs in the near future. In regions with limited land
availability, these improvements could make oshore wind a viable alternative
for hydrogen production.
The high LCOH for oshore wind stems primarily from the
higher CAPEX associated with FOWFs. The installation
and maintenance costs of oshore turbines, the need
for high-voltage transmission infrastructure to bring
electricity onshore, and the inherent logistical challenges
of operating in harsh marine environments increase
the overall cost of hydrogen production. In comparison,
solar PV has significantly lower CAPEX because of its
simpler installation processes, minimal maintenance
requirements, and the rapidly declining costs of solar
panels over the past decade.
For onshore electrolysis using oshore wind to become
economically competitive with solar PV, substantial
reductions in the cost of FOWFs are necessary. Advances
in technology, economies of scale, and improved
deployment techniques are essential to reduce the
costs of floating wind turbines and reduce the LCOH
for hydrogen production. As floating wind technology
matures, the potential for cost reductions could make
oshore wind a more attractive option for hydrogen
production in the future. As mentioned above, the
case for oshore wind in hydrogen production may
also become stronger as land availability constraints
for solar PV become stricter, especially in densely
populated regions or areas with limited suitable land for
solar development.
The central oshore hydrogen production model oers
scalability benefits. In large-scale aggregated oshore
wind projects, such as those reaching 10 GW, each
project typically requires separate high-voltage cables
to transmit electricity onshore. In contrast, a single,
well-sized and strategically planned hydrogen pipeline
can carry the hydrogen output from multiple projects,
significantly reducing overall infrastructure costs as the
project scale increases (Derelle 2023). This situation
reduces the operational complexity and capital costs
associated with the installation of multiple platforms. With
a central oshore platform, hydrogen production can
be eciently managed, with shared infrastructure such
as desalination, compression, and transport systems,
making it a promising solution for large-scale oshore
wind farms.
The results show that while central oshore hydrogen
production involves high CAPEX, especially for the
platform, the potential for cost reductions exists as
29
The Economics of Oshore Wind-Based Hydrogen Production in Saudi Arabia
projects scale up. In this model, hydrogen is produced
oshore and transported to shore through pipelines,
which is the most commonly used method for shorter to
moderate distances, where large volumes of hydrogen
can be eciently carried to onshore storage or
distribution hubs. However, this approach is not the only
option available for hydrogen transport. Other options,
such as using ships to transport liquefied hydrogen or
hydrogen carriers such as ammonia or liquid organic
hydrogen carriers (LOHCs), oer alternative pathways,
especially for projects located further from shore or
in deeper waters, where pipeline infrastructure may
become prohibitively expensive. Ship transport allows
for the flexibility of scaling up transport as demand
grows without the need for fixed infrastructure, and
the technology for liquefying hydrogen is continuously
improving. Although liquefaction requires significant
energy input, advances in eciency may reduce these
costs in the future.
Moreover, hydrogen carriers such as ammonia or LOHCs
provide additional flexibility. These carriers allow for
easier storage and transport over long distances, as
they are more stable and can be integrated into existing
global shipping networks. Ammonia, for example, can
be easily converted back to hydrogen or used directly
as a fuel, adding another layer of utility. Importantly,
the conversion of hydrogen into ammonia at oshore
facilities can be performed at a relatively low cost,
further increasing its feasibility for export. However,
these methods come with their own sets of technical and
economic challenges.
In our analysis, central oshore hydrogen production
and pipeline-based transport are selected because
of their lower energy consumption and feasibility for
hydrogen transport over moderate distances. While our
study focuses primarily on the domestic production of
hydrogen, its export potential should also be considered.
As Saudi Arabia aims to become a leader in the global
hydrogen market, a key question is whether producing
hydrogen onshore or oshore for export is more cost
eective. Although export-related costs are not central to
our analysis, future studies should explore the potential
of shared oshore infrastructure among countries, as
seen in the North Sea, to reduce costs and improve
competitiveness. Nonetheless, as the scale of oshore
hydrogen production grows and projects move further
from shore, alternative transport methods such as ships
or carriers may become more cost competitive, with
estimates for shipping hydrogen from Saudi to Northwest
Europe in the form of ammonia being approximately $1/
kg (Alhadhrami et al. 2024). The incorporation of these
options into the global landscape of the hydrogen
economy and potential exports across continents could
provide a more comprehensive view of the potential
benefits of these options.
4.1 Hydrogen
Production from
Decentralized
Oshore Electrolysis
Decentralized hydrogen production (i.e., the deployment
of electrolysis systems at individual wind turbines)
oers a novel approach to leveraging oshore wind
energy. By placing electrolyzers directly at the source of
generation, this method bypasses the need for complex
and expensive electricity transmission infrastructure,
such as high-voltage cables, and allows hydrogen
to be produced and transported as a fuel directly
from the wind turbine. The promise of decentralized
hydrogen production lies in its potential to reduce grid
congestion, lower transmission losses, and provide a
flexible solution for hydrogen storage and distribution.
However, despite these theoretical advantages, there
are significant challenges that need to be addressed
before decentralized hydrogen production can be
widely adopted.
Conversely, one of the primary hurdles impeding
the development of decentralized oshore
electrolyzers is the lack of large-scale pilot projects
that demonstrate the technical and economic viability
of decentralized electrolysis. The concept remains
largely in the experimental phase, with only one
notable demonstration project underway in the UK
(Venugopalan, Garcia Navarro, and Buijs 2024).
Without comprehensive operational data, performing a
detailed quantitative analysis or accurately assessing
the LCOH for decentralized systems is dicult. This
uncertainty limits the ability to predict the scalability
of decentralized electrolysis and makes it challenging
to determine how it compares to centralized or
onshore alternatives in terms of cost eectiveness and
overall performance.
30
The Economics of Oshore Wind-Based Hydrogen Production in Saudi Arabia
The technical complexity of integrating electrolyzers
into individual turbines introduces additional layers of
uncertainty. While decentralized electrolysis reduces the
need for oshore platforms and pipelines, it requires each
wind turbine to have its own electrolyzer, desalination
unit, and potentially compression and storage system.
This modular approach complicates maintenance and
operational logistics, as each unit needs to be monitored
and serviced separately. Moreover, placing desalination
units at every turbine to purify seawater for electrolysis
is both resource and energy intensive, further increasing
costs and operational challenges. It will take time for
pilot projects to demonstrate and evaluate whether such
systems can function eciently at scale.
From an economic standpoint, decentralized electrolysis
carries the risk of higher CAPEX due to the need for
individual components at each turbine. The lack of
economies of scale, which centralized systems can
exploit by aggregating resources and infrastructure,
also poses a barrier to reducing costs. Nevertheless,
the potential for decentralized electrolysis to unlock
hydrogen production in remote or deep-water oshore
wind farms, where traditional electrical grid connections
are not feasible, is an exciting opportunity. As FOWFs
become more viable, decentralized hydrogen production
could allow developers to build wind farms far from shore
without the need for expensive electrical infrastructure.
In these scenarios, producing hydrogen at the source
and transporting it via ships or pipelines could oer a
cost-eective solution, especially if future technological
developments reduce the costs of decentralized systems.
4.2 Challenges,
Risks, and Barriers
Ahead
While both onshore and oshore electrolysis present
unique advantages, it is essential to consider the
common barriers that can influence the feasibility of
both approaches.
1. Oshore hydrogen production involves considerable
CAPEX, posing significant financing challenges.
Oshore hydrogen production faces significant
challenges, including high capital costs, economic
uncertainties, and technological integration issues.
Substantial upfront investments are required for
infrastructure, including the installation of wind turbines,
electrolysis systems, pipelines, and supporting facilities.
Furthermore, uncertainties surrounding the future
market price of hydrogen complicate the economic
viability of these ventures. The integration of oshore
wind technology with large-scale oshore hydrogen
production is still in its early stages of development.
2. Oshore production and technology integration
increase regulatory and permitting complexities.
The regulatory and permitting complexities of oshore
hydrogen production are major barriers. The regulatory
Platform integrated
Hydrogen production
Land
Hydrogen
Hydrogen
network
Sea
Inner-array
pipeline
Hydrogen pipeline
Figure 5. Decentralized oshore electrolysis.
Source: Authors.
31
The Economics of Oshore Wind-Based Hydrogen Production in Saudi Arabia
landscape for hydrogen is still emerging, and obtaining
permits for large-scale projects can be time consuming.
Streamlining regulatory processes and creating
standardized regulations for hydrogen production,
transport, and storage are essential for accelerating
project development. Furthermore, integration with
hydrogen transport and storage systems presents
significant technical challenges, particularly with
respect to reliability, eciency, and safety.
3. Managing too many stages and steps presents
operational challenges.
Grid integration and infrastructure development pose
significant challenges, including the development
and operation of hydrogen pipelines, storage
infrastructure, subsea piping systems, and intermediate
storage solutions for hydrogen. The installation and
maintenance of subsea pipelines present technical
challenges and operational risks, adding complexity to
infrastructure planning and development.
4. Oshore hydrogen production is hindered by
intermittent wind power.
Electrolyzers, which are used to produce hydrogen,
need to operate continuously to maximize eciency
and cost-eectiveness. However, the variability of
wind energy can lead to interruptions, necessitating
the use of backup systems or energy storage solutions
such as batteries, which would further increase costs.
Thus, it is essential to develop systems that can
manage this intermittent supply without compromising
hydrogen output to ensure the feasibility of oshore
hydrogen projects.
5. Safety and environmental issues will require
careful management.
Environmental concerns are crucial in hydrogen
production via electrolysis, which requires significant
fresh water and energy-intensive desalination
processes, impacting marine life. The safety risks
associated with hydrogen storage and transport in
oshore environments require careful management.
It is crucial to establish technological standards and
ensure long-term operational stability for the success
of oshore hydrogen production.
6. International oshore wind and hydrogen projects
will require eective cooperation.
Finally, regional cooperation is challenging for
international oshore wind and hydrogen projects
because of diering regulations and national interests.
Eective cooperation is vital to optimize resource use
and develop cross-border hydrogen infrastructure,
thus requiring careful negotiation and collaboration.
32
The Economics of Oshore Wind-Based Hydrogen Production in Saudi Arabia
5. Conclusions and
Ways Forward
Despite the challenges, oshore wind-to-hydrogen systems oer an
opportunity for decarbonization and energy security, particularly in sectors
that are hard to electrify, such as heavy industry, aviation, and shipping.
Hydrogen produced from renewable oshore wind energy provides a
zero-emission alternative to fossil fuels, positioning it as a key solution in
the transition to cleaner energy. The development of the oshore wind-to-
hydrogen industry also presents sizable potential for economic growth and
job creation. As the industry expands, opportunities will emerge across the
entire value chain, from the manufacturing of wind turbines and electrolyzers
to the construction, operation, and maintenance of both oshore wind farms
and hydrogen production facilities. This growth can drive local economies,
particularly in coastal regions where oshore wind farms are located, creating
long-term, high-skilled jobs in the renewable energy and hydrogen sectors.
Governments can leverage this opportunity to stimulate industrial growth and
strengthen domestic supply chains, fostering a robust green economy.
Additionally, countries that develop strong oshore
wind-to-hydrogen industries have substantial export
potential. As the global demand for green hydrogen
continues to rise, nations with abundant oshore wind
resources can position themselves as key exporters.
International collaboration in terms of infrastructure,
technology development, and regulatory frameworks will
be essential in accelerating this growth and opening new
markets. Collaborative eorts will enhance technological
advancements and standardization, driving down costs
and increasing eciency for global hydrogen markets,
further boosting the competitiveness of oshore wind-
to-hydrogen systems.
However, from the Saudi perspective, the economics
of oshore wind-to-hydrogen production, particularly
in the Red Sea, where much of the resource potential
lies in deeper areas suitable for FOWFs, make it less
competitive for green hydrogen production. Compared
with similar projects in Europe, this technology does not
provide a competitive advantage in exporting green
hydrogen, which has greater potential for FOWFs and is
further developed in terms of technological deployment
and cost eciency. Moreover, in terms of oshore wind
hydrogen production, Saudi Arabia will struggle to
compete with domestic onshore hydrogen production
from solar PV, which benefits from the country’s vast solar
resources and much lower production costs.
As a result, the development of Saudi Arabia’s oshore
wind-to-hydrogen sector will likely be a medium- to long-
term target, driven by the need for further cost reductions
in oshore wind technology. In addition, incentives for
green hydrogen will be essential for making oshore wind
hydrogen production financially viable. While the current
focus may remain on leveraging Saudi Arabia’s more
33
The Economics of Oshore Wind-Based Hydrogen Production in Saudi Arabia
cost-eective solar and onshore wind resources, oshore
wind could play a more prominent role in the future as the
technology matures.
One of the primary economic advantages of oshore
hydrogen production is that transporting hydrogen is
less expensive than is transmitting electricity over long
distances. Hydrogen produced from several oshore
wind farms can be transported via a single pipeline,
dramatically reducing material requirements, installation
costs, and the space needed on the seabed. Oshore
electrolysis becomes particularly attractive for projects
located far from shore, where the cost of hydrogen
pipelines is considerably lower than is that of installing
electrical cables. For large-scale projects, a hydrogen
pipeline can cost up to three times less than can an
electrical cable to transmit the same amount of energy,
providing a strong case for further investment in oshore
electrolysis infrastructure.
To ensure the successful development of oshore wind-
to-hydrogen systems, developing a hydrogen strategy
that integrates oshore wind deployment is crucial. Such
a strategy will oer a clear direction to businesses and
industries, thus supporting investment decisions and
providing a long-term roadmap. Additionally, this strategy
will involve linking the siting of oshore wind farms with
the proximity of hydrogen end-use sectors or industrial
bases. Oshore wind locations should be strategically
chosen to minimize the cost and complexity of hydrogen
transport and ensure ecient delivery to demand centers
or export facilities. Setting capacity targets will help
establish a pipeline of projects, giving stakeholders
visibility into future opportunities, whereas cost targets
will encourage innovation and cost reduction across
the supply chain. A well-structured strategy can align
oshore wind capacity with hydrogen production goals,
supporting the growth of both domestic and international
hydrogen markets.
Investment in R&D will be vital in advancing those key
technologies required for the oshore hydrogen economy.
Funding for R&D is necessary to accelerate progress
in areas such as advanced electrolyzers, more ecient
hydrogen storage solutions, and cost-eective pipeline
infrastructure. Identifying and supporting demonstrator
projects, particularly those targeting the first GW of
hydrogen production capacity, will be critical in kick starting
the supply chain and attracting investment. Additionally,
encouraging diverse business models will foster innovation
and competition, thus driving down costs and improving
the scalability of oshore hydrogen production.
Finally, international collaboration will play a crucial role
in advancing oshore hydrogen systems, especially
in regions with shared sea boundaries that oer
opportunities for cross-border projects. Collaboration
on technology sharing, regulatory harmonization, and
infrastructure development can help reduce costs
and improve the eciency of hydrogen production and
transport. Aligning regulatory standards across borders
will further streamline the development of transnational
hydrogen pipelines and facilitate the movement of green
hydrogen among nations.
34
The Economics of Oshore Wind-Based Hydrogen Production in Saudi Arabia
Endnote
1 The FPSO concept involves generating hydrogen on the same floating platform as the wind turbine and storing it onboard. The
stored hydrogen can then be ooaded for transport by ships, oering greater flexibility compared to pipeline-based systems,
especially in deep-water locations.
35
The Economics of Oshore Wind-Based Hydrogen Production in Saudi Arabia
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Notes
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The Economics of Oshore Wind-Based Hydrogen Production in Saudi Arabia
Notes
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The Economics of Oshore Wind-Based Hydrogen Production in Saudi Arabia
Notes
42
The Economics of Oshore Wind-Based Hydrogen Production in Saudi Arabia
Ahmed Albalawi
Ahmed is a Research Fellow in the Utilities & Renewables Program at KAPSARC. He is an
Electrical Engineer and holds an M.Sc. degree in renewable energy systems from Loughborough
University. Prior to joining KAPSARC, he worked as an R&D engineer at Saudi Electricity
Company for over five years, heading the research on renewables and energy storage. Ahmed’s
current research focuses on emerging technologies, critical minerals, and power system
modeling to help shape the future of the energy mix and the technologies that can contribute to
achieving the KSA’s green targets.
Shahid Hasan
Shahid is a Principal Fellow at KAPSARC. His current research focuses on electricity sector
transitions and hydrogen economics, as well as policy and regulatory issues in the Middle
East and globally. He also studies the development of regional electricity markets in the Gulf
Cooperation Council (GCC) and Middle East and North Africa regions. He previously consulted
extensively on policy, regulatory and market design for governments, electricity regulators,
public utilities and the electricity industries in India and Southeast Asia.
Amro M Elshurafa
Amro is the Executive Director of the Utilities & Renewables Department and possesses 20+
years of experience garnered on three continents. His research interests lie in renewable energy
policy, electricity market design and regulation, and power systems modeling. He has led and
executed several national modeling initiatives at distributed and utility scales. Some aspects
of his research have been adopted by BP in their seminal annual statistical review. He is listed
among the top 2% of scientists globally as per Stanford, and he is a board member of the Saudi
Water and Electricity Regulatory Authority. Credited with 50+ papers and patents, he holds a
Ph.D. in Engineering and an MBA in Finance.
About the Authors
43
The Economics of Oshore Wind-Based Hydrogen Production in Saudi Arabia
About the Project
This paper is part of the project “Innovations in electricity markets, network
regulations, low-carbon investments and technologies” under KAPSARC’s
Energy Transitions and Electric Power Program. This project aims to
provide insights into the transformation of the Saudi electricity sector. This
transformation is characterized by a willingness to increase the share of
renewables and replace liquid fuels with natural gas. This transformation
must also ensure fiscal balance, expand electricity exports, produce green
hydrogen and diversify the Saudi economy through localization. This project
provides insights into this transition by discussing and learning from electricity
markets worldwide.
www.kapsarc.org