Publications

Balancing International Trade and Climate Justice: Legal Perspectives on the EU’s Deforestation Regulation

Majed A. Al Suwailem, Tommaso Morotti

Forests play a crucial role as natural carbon sinks and protectors of biodiversity. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, the world lost approximately 4.2 million square kilometers of forest between 1990 and 2020 –…

Al Suwailem, Majed A.

Tommaso Morotti

Phantom Oil Movements: An Investigation into Opaque Ship- to-Ship Operations and Their Role in Sanction Evasion

Majed A. Al Suwailem, Philipp Galkin, Fahad Alyahya

The transportation and distribution of large volumes of oil, gas, and refined products over long distances are enabled primarily by marine shipping. Transborder pipelines serve as an additional method for transporting oil and gas. However, these pipelines are typically more…

Al Suwailem, Majed A.

Galkin, Philipp

Alyahya, Fahad

Critical Minerals and the Oil Industry: The Impact of a Positive Shock to Critical Mineral and World Oil Prices

Jennifer Considine, Abdullah Aldayel, Philipp Galkin, Emre Hatipoglu

The term “critical minerals” (CMs) refers to a distinct category of commodities, such as rare earths, critical earth minerals, and other non-fuel minerals or mineral materials that are of strategic importance to national economies and technical development and that have…

Considine, Jennifer

Aldayel, Abdullah

Galkin, Philipp

Hatipoglu, Emre

Can the Dangote Refinery Deliver on its Promise?

Evar Umeozor

In Nigeria, energy cost is the predominant driver of prices for all goods and services. With a population of over 200 million people, Nigeria is a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and a major producer…

Umeozor, Evar

Long-Term Forecasting Models of Oil Demand Emerging from the Global Petrochemical Sector

Raed Al-Mestneer, Carlo Andrea Bollino

This study aims to estimate the demand for petrochemical feedstocks for four main products (naphtha, ethane, liquified petroleum gas [LPG], and other petrochemical products) for each of the eight regions of the world.

Al-Mestneer, Raed

Bollino, Carlo Andrea

The Impact of Displacing Fuel Oil on Saudi Refineries

Walid Matar

Saudi Arabia aims to displace fuel oil in its electricity system and industry. Such a move ­will impact the operation of its oil refineries, and this commentary explores ­these potential effects.

Matar, Walid

The Unfolding Potential of GCC China Collaboration on Critical Minerals

Dongmei Chen, Jianping Ge, Yibo Wang, Ruihua Ren

As a clean energy system begins to be implemented worldwide, the demand for critical minerals is expected to increase dramatically in the coming decades. Thus, demonstrating how mineral collaboration benefits the economy is key to building long-term supply resilience and…

Chen, Dongmei

Jianping Ge

Yibo Wang

Ruihua Ren

KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook

This quarter’s highlights include stagnating quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) oil demand, with a trivial decline of only 8,000 barrels a day (Kb/d), following last quarter’s growth of 1.27 million barrels per day (MMb/d). While significant gains and losses were reported in individual…

Unraveling the Black Market for Oil: The Complex Web of Phantom Trade and Its Reverberating Effects on Energy Security, Trade Balances, and Social Welfare

Majed A. Al Suwailem, David Soud, Fahad Alyahya

In the energy market, the black market1 for oil embodies the ancient parable of the blind men and the elephant. Just as the blind men each touched a different part of the elephant and experienced only a fraction of its…

Al Suwailem, Majed A.

David Soud

Alyahya, Fahad

Azerbaijan: Energy, Carbon, and Opportunities

Zlata Sergeeva, Colin Ward

At the end of 2023, after prolonged discussions, Azerbaijan was selected as the host country of the 2024 United Nations climate summit, COP29. Like the two preceding hosts of COP28 and COP27, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Egypt, Azerbaijan…

Sergeeva, Zlata

Ward, Colin

Geothermal Energy – A Rising Powerhouse? A Global Technical Review and Applications for Saudi Arabia

Majed A. Al Suwailem, Bez Hoxha, Colin Ward, Abdulrahman Alwosheel

The Earth’s core, which is as hot as the sun, contains a large amount of thermal energy insulated by impermeable rocks. This energy, totaling 15 million zetta joules, dwarfs traditional energy sources such as coal and gas. However, only a fraction…

Al Suwailem, Majed A.

Bez Hoxha

Ward, Colin

Alwosheel, Abdulrahman

Gas Demand in the MENA Hydrocarbon- Producing Countries: Recent Trends and Drivers

Sid Ahmed Hamdani

Natural gas has gained significant importance in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, with demand reaching more than 700 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2022 and increasing by almost 50% compared with a decade ago. Gas demand in the…

Hamdani, Sid Ahmed

Web-Based User Interfaces for Mathematical Models to Support Decisions: The Fuel Distribution Network Optimizer

Nourah Al Hosain, Jaidaa Alidrisi, Amr Alruthai, Walid Matar, Abdelrahman Muhsen, Pavithra Kumar Shetty, Lama Yaseen, Abeer AlGhamdi

Mathematical models provide quantitative analyses that can inform policy decisions. We argue that two attributes can support models’ adoption by policymakers: an intuitive graphical interface and active engagement between modelers and policymakers.

Al Hosain, Nourah

Alidrisi, Jaidaa

Alruthai, Amr

Matar, Walid

Muhsen, Abdelrahman

Shetty, Pavithra Kumar

Yaseen, Lama

AlGhamdi, Abeer

An Exposition of Bilinear “Implicit” Subsidy Equations

Walid Matar

The price-gap method is popularly applied to estimate energy subsidies, and it simply involves calculating the difference between the market and domestic prices of a good multiplied by the quantity consumed. In the case where subsidies impose foregone revenue rather…

Matar, Walid

Volatility of Crude Oil Prices and the Mitigation of Oil Price Risk

The workshop participants voiced a number of diverse views about the prospects for ­future oil demand. They also clearly articulated the need for OPEC spare production capacity as a critical policy tool for the stabilization of world oil markets.

Scaling Up Geothermal Power Generation to Rebalance the Energy Trilemma

Energy is the vehicle that has enabled humanity to flourish. Since the dawn of time, humans have sought to find more efficient ways to power and propel their lives forward. With each generation, humanity has made progress in unlocking energy…

Assessing CCUS Potential for LNG in the GCC

Zlata Sergeeva, Colin Ward

As the world experiences the energy transition, traditional oil and gas producers are feeling a greater need to decarbonize their hydrocarbon production.

Sergeeva, Zlata

Ward, Colin

Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) Solutions to Decarbonize LNG: Why, Where and How Much?

Zlata Sergeeva, Colin Ward

In 2019, a new product – carbon-neutral LNG – was born. By 2021, the market for this product had grown rapidly. However, in 2022, the number of announcements about the volumes delivered to customers significantly decreased. To a large extent,…

Sergeeva, Zlata

Ward, Colin

NOCs and ESG: Room for Refinement?

Julio Arboleda, Claudia Belahmidi

The oil and gas industry has faced investment challenges since 2014. Oil and gas suppliers are still searching for a solution to attract investments from financial institutions and other cautious investors who are hesitant to inject more capital. Factors such…

Arboleda, Julio

Belahmidi, Claudia

KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook

This quarter’s highlights include an oil demand quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) growth of 940 Kb/d following last quarter’s declines. While the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries witnessed a QoQ decline of roughly 700 thousand barrels per day (Kb/d) last…