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      World Oil and Inventory Study: A Global VAR Analysis
      Future of Global Oil Markets

      World Oil and Inventory Study: A Global VAR Analysis

      Jennifer Considine, Abdullah Aldayel, Emre Hatipoglu

      Despite numerous journal articles, forecasting studies, and books, very little is known about the actual quantitative value, or economic cost, of shocks to world oil markets. The potential consequences of a given political or economic disturbance are unclear, and appear…

      Jennifer Considine Considine, Jennifer
      Abdullah Aldayel Aldayel, Abdullah
      Emre Hatipoglu Hatipoglu, Emre
      10th June 2020
      Oil’s Demanding Road to Recovery

      Oil’s Demanding Road to Recovery

      Andrew Stanley

      As of May 1, OPEC+ members officially began implementing supply limits, with several countries outside the group providing support on their own terms. While this cooperation will provide much needed support to the market, demand-side factors continue to dominate the…

      Andrew Stanley Andrew Stanley
      20th May 2020
      The World Needs OPEC, but OPEC Can’t Go It Alone

      The World Needs OPEC, but OPEC Can’t Go It Alone

      Andrew Stanley

      The global oil market is going through an extraordinary period. The twin shocks of a significant increase in global supply and a remarkable fall in oil demand appear to have no parallel in history. Together, the collapsed OPEC+ agreement and…

      Andrew Stanley Andrew Stanley
      27th March 2020
      Market Structure, Inventories and Oil Prices: An Empirical Analysis
      Future of Global Oil Markets

      Market Structure, Inventories and Oil Prices: An Empirical Analysis

      Jennifer Considine, Philipp Galkin, Abdullah Aldayel

      Understanding the relationship between crude oil prices and inventory levels is critical for policymakers and economic actors. The size of the ‘basis,’ or spread between spot and futures prices, reflects the level of inventories and can trigger arbitrage trading. The…

      Jennifer Considine Considine, Jennifer
      Philipp Galkin Galkin, Philipp
      Abdullah Aldayel Aldayel, Abdullah
      24th February 2020
      Analytical Approaches to Blending Political Science With the Study of Energy Markets
      Future of Global Oil Markets

      Analytical Approaches to Blending Political Science With the Study of Energy Markets

      Energy is arguably the most valuable traded commodity in the world. Unlike most other commodities, energy resources are essential for economic and military activity and therefore have unique strategic importance, especially because states vary widely in their energy resource endowment.…

      18th February 2020
      Placing a Value on Spot Sales from a Joint Oil Stockpiling Facility
      Future of Global Oil Markets

      Placing a Value on Spot Sales from a Joint Oil Stockpiling Facility

      Jennifer Considine, Kang Wu, Ziyad Alfawzan, Sammy Six

      In this paper, joint oil stockpiling (JOS) refers to a commercial arrangement whereby crude oil, owned and commercially traded by an exporting country, is stored in an importing country in exchange for priority drawdown by the host country in the…

      Jennifer Considine Considine, Jennifer
      Kang Wu Wu, Kang
      Ziyad Alfawzan Alfawzan, Ziyad
      Sammy Six Six, Sammy
      23rd January 2020
      The Value of Spot Sales to a Producing Country Subject to Production Quotas
      Future of Global Oil Markets

      The Value of Spot Sales to a Producing Country Subject to Production Quotas

      Jennifer Considine, Kang Wu, Abdullah Aldayel

      In recent years, global oil markets have experienced intensified competition driven by growing surpluses of lighter crude and shale oil. As their margins have shrunk, many producers have increased output in order to boost revenue, adding to the oversupply. Meanwhile,…

      Jennifer Considine Considine, Jennifer
      Kang Wu Wu, Kang
      Abdullah Aldayel Aldayel, Abdullah
      16th January 2020
      The Impact of Global Trade Disruptions on World Oil Markets
      Future of Global Oil Markets

      The Impact of Global Trade Disruptions on World Oil Markets

      Abdullah Aldayel, AlJawhara Al Quayid, Jennifer Considine, Emre Hatipoglu

      After decades of relatively smooth trade liberalization, a wave of protectionist measures and a global trade war is now threatening world trade. On September 1, 2019, the United States (U.S.) imposed a new series of tariffs on Chinese imports worth…

      Abdullah Aldayel Aldayel, Abdullah
      AlJawhara Al Quayid Al Quayid, AlJawhara
      Jennifer Considine Considine, Jennifer
      Emre Hatipoglu Hatipoglu, Emre
      4th December 2019
      A Short-Term Forecasting Model for Brent Oil Prices
      Future of Global Oil Markets

      A Short-Term Forecasting Model for Brent Oil Prices

      Hamid M. Al Sadoon, Colin Ward, Jennifer Considine, Abdullah Aldayel

      The KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook (KOMO) has been designed to provide readers with a timely source of data, forecasts and analysis of world oil markets, including an understanding of the key factors affecting world oil prices. This paper gives a…

      Hamid M. Al Sadoon Al Sadoon, Hamid M.
      Colin Ward Ward, Colin
      Jennifer Considine Considine, Jennifer
      Abdullah Aldayel Aldayel, Abdullah
      20th October 2019
      International Oil and Gas Market Outlook
      Future of Global Oil Markets Future of Natural Gas Markets

      International Oil and Gas Market Outlook

      The United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) and KAPSARC co-hosted an expert workshop on the international outlook for oil and gas, held in Washington, D.C. on September 18, 2018. The workshop focused on the global oil and gas supply and…

      18th December 2018
      Sheltering the Economies of Oil Exporting Countries From Energy Shocks
      Energy and Economic Vulnerability

      Sheltering the Economies of Oil Exporting Countries From Energy Shocks

      Price shocks are a feature of international oil markets, with the oil price collapse in the second half of 2014 being the most recent example. These episodes are a source of macroeconomic disruption that harm economic activity in the short…

      10th August 2017
      Energy Productivity in the GCC: Evidence From an International Kuznets Curve Analysis
      Productivity and Economic Diversification

      Energy Productivity in the GCC: Evidence From an International Kuznets Curve Analysis

      Marzio Galeotti, Nicholas Howarth, Alessandro Lanza

      This paper explores energy productivity trends at a national level for the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and puts them in an international context. This analysis can be used as part of an evidence base for setting nationally…

      Marzio Galeotti Galeotti, Marzio
      Nicholas Howarth Howarth, Nicholas
      Alessandro Lanza Lanza, Alessandro
      18th October 2016
      Energy systems modeling to support policy making

      Energy systems modeling to support policy making

      The main needs of energy system models over the past three decades trace a journey from an era in which concerns about security and sufficiency of supply were the dominant themes (1970s and 1980s), through a swing towards liberalizing markets,…

      6th February 2014