Analyzing the Interplay of Urbanization, Economic Development, and Seaborne Trade A Case of Saudi Arabia

  • Focus Area Transportation & Infrastructure Transportation & Infrastructure
  • Type Discussion paper
  • Date 18 December 2024
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Abstract

Urbanization is widely recognized as a critical factor influencing economic growth and global trade, yet there is ongoing debate about whether it drives these outcomes or is a consequence of them. To address this, it is essential to determine whether urbanization spurs economic development and trade, or if these processes influence urbanization, or if the relationship is one of mutual causality. This study investigates the interplay between urbanization, economic development, and trade in both the short and the long term. Using data from Saudi Arabia spanning from 1991 to 2022, the research employs cointegration and Granger causality tests to first determine the order of integration of the variables, and it then applies the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and the Error Correction Model (ECM) to examine causal relationships over different time horizons. The results reveal a bidirectional causality between urbanization and economic development in both the short and the long terms. In contrast, while there is bidirectional causality between trade and economic development in the short term, the long-term analysis indicates a unidirectional causality from trade to economic development. This suggests that trade influences economic development, which in turn affects urbanization, with no direct causality found between trade and urbanization.

Authors

Ahm Mehbub Anwar

Ahm Mehbub Anwar

Fellow- Transportation & Infrastructure Dr. AHM Mehbub Anwar is a fellow at KAPSARC. He currently leads the Energy Decision Model for Maritime, which results…

Dr. AHM Mehbub Anwar is a fellow at KAPSARC. He currently leads the Energy Decision Model for Maritime, which results in research outcomes as well as advisory inputs for the energy ecosystem across the Kingdom. This project investigates future port activity including seaborne trade and fuel consumption in the shipping sector both locally and globally. He also works on the KAPSARC Spatial Urban Energy System (KSUES) project. Prior to joining KAPSARC, he worked in Transport for New South Wales (TfNSW), a state government organisation, as a transport planner, and at the University of Wollongong (UOW) in Australia as a researcher. He led the update on the state of transport in the TfNSW regions as part of the strategic planning for its Future Transport 2056. He has also worked as a lecturer at Khulna University of Bangladesh, and was later promoted to a professor in urban transport planning. He holds a Ph.D. with an examiners’ commendation for an outstanding thesis from the UOW. His thesis focused on modeling travellers’ preference heterogeneity.

Expertise

  • Urban sustainable mobility
  • Port activity
  • Alternative fuels and enerygy efficiency
  • Choice modeling
  • Future transport strategy at local and national level

Publications See all Ahm Mehbub Anwar’s publications

Nourah Al Hosain

Nourah Al Hosain

Manager- Geographic Information Solution Nourah is a manager in the Solutions Productization program. Her work focuses on geospatial analysis and modeling. Nourah was previously…

Nourah is a manager in the Solutions Productization program. Her work focuses on geospatial analysis and modeling. Nourah was previously in KAPSARC’s Policy and Decision Science program, where she was part of the KAPSARC Toolkit for Behavioral Analysis (KTAB) development team. She holds a B.S. in Computer Science from Prince Sultan University.

Expertise

  • Policy Analysis
  • Sustainable Cities and Geospatial Analysis and Modeling

Publications See all Nourah Al Hosain’s publications

Yagyavalk Bhatt

Yagyavalk Bhatt

Fellow- Transportation & Infrastructure Yagyavalk Bhatt is an energy professional with more than seven years of experience in the transportation and electricity domain. Yagyavalk…

Yagyavalk Bhatt is an energy professional with more than seven years of experience in the transportation and electricity domain. Yagyavalk leads “The Role of Clean Energy Policies: Trends in India’s Transport Sector” project, aimed at estimating India’s transport energy demand and potential impact on crude oil supply chain.

His expertise covers energy policy, energy economics, transport modeling, the impact analysis of transport policies, emerging economies energy transition, renewable energy, and cost-benefit analysis of the transport and electricity sector. He has authored and contributed to numerous research papers and studies related to the transportation and electricity sector.

 

Expertise

  • Policy Analysis
  • Transport Demand Modeling
  • Sustainable Transport
  • Clean Energy Transition
  • Renewable Energy
  • Climate Change

Publications See all Yagyavalk Bhatt’s publications

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