The Determinants of Successful Energy Subsidy Reforms: A Logistic Regression Analysis

  • Focus Area Climate & Sustainability Climate & Sustainability
  • Type Discussion paper
  • Date 29 December 2024
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Abstract

Many factors influence whether an energy subsidy reform is successful. We define success as a reform that does not lead to social unrest and is not reversed. To better understand these factors, we apply logistic regression analysis to an original dataset capturing 392 distinct episodes of energy subsidy reform and their outcomes across 44 countries between 1995 and 2022. We find that larger energy price increases are more likely to trigger social unrest or lead to a reform reversal, pointing to the importance of gradual reform implementation.

Authors

Anwar Gasim

Anwar Gasim

Principal Fellow- Climate and Sustainability Anwar is an energy and environmental economist with an engineering background and over a decade of research and advisory experience…

Anwar is an energy and environmental economist with an engineering background and over a decade of research and advisory experience around the areas of energy demand, greenhouse gas emissions, energy price reform, and carbon pricing. He currently leads multiple cross-functional teams on key projects tackling these areas, with a proven track record of publishing high-impact papers, providing consulting services to policymakers, and building the capabilities of talent within the organization. Anwar’s research has been published in leading energy and environmental journals and has been picked up by leading news media. Anwar also has experience transforming organizations, having been a member of task forces responsible for refreshing organizational strategy and building human capital.

Anwar is currently wrapping up a Ph.D. from UCL in Sustainable Resources (sub-specialization in Economics). He holds an M.Sc. from KAUST in Electrical Engineering and a B.Eng. from the University of Liverpool in Electronics and Communication Engineering.

Expertise

  • Energy price reform; Energy demand; Measuring GHG emissions; Carbon pricing; Carbon markets

Publications See all Anwar Gasim’s publications

Paolo Agnolucci

Paolo Agnolucci

Paul Ekins

Paul Ekins

Lama Yaseen

Lama Yaseen

Fellow- Transportation & Infrastructure Lama is a fellow working under the Transportation and Infrastructure Content Center. Lama has a B.Sc. degree in computer science…

Lama is a fellow working under the Transportation and Infrastructure Content Center. Lama has a B.Sc. degree in computer science from Effat University and an M.Sc. degree in software engineering from the University of Oxford. Lama is a programmer, data modeler and software engineer working in data modeling and software integration. She is also part of the Geographical Information Systems (GIS) team, working in spatial analytics and modeling.

Lama was also one of the main contributors to the KAPSARC Toolkit for Behavioral Analysis (KTAB).

Expertise

  • Energy Sustainability and Social Science

Publications See all Lama Yaseen’s publications

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