Uncertainty in Modeling the Demand for Materials from the Energy Sector at a Country-level: A Case Study of Saudi Arabia

The material intensity of the energy transition has been a topic of growing importance in the literature and policymaking over the last decade. Much of this debate has been founded on a range of future demand forecasts of the material requirements of the energy transition, primarily at a global level. However, these forecasts have varied considerably, which has created uncertainty about what materials may be deemed critical, both in terms of future material needs and in securing future supply. In this work, we use a dynamic material flow model to estimate future material requirements at the country level and assess the material demands of the energy transition in Saudi Arabia under different scenarios. We vary the metrics related to demand and its contextualization in terms of supply, along with key underlying assumptions, to highlight crucial design questions future material demand estimation at the country level and areas in which uncertainties may arise.

Timothy Laing

Senior Research Fellow- Utilities & Renewables Dr. Timothy Laing is an environment, natural resource, and development economist, and he is a Senior Research Fellow at KAPSARC,…

Dr. Timothy Laing is an environment, natural resource, and development economist, and he is a Senior Research Fellow at KAPSARC, focusing on Critical Minerals. He has held academic positions at the University of Brighton, the University of Cambridge, the London School of Economics and Political Science, and the University of West Indies. He has worked as an independent consultant for clients such as the World Bank, Climate Strategies, the International Council on Mining and Metals, and Conservation International on a variety of projects relating to mining policy, carbon markets, the EU ETS, and REDD+. He has published academic papers and reports on subjects including critical minerals, natural resource management, small- and large-scale mining, the EU ETS, international carbon market mechanisms, and REDD+. He obtained his Ph.D. from the London School of Economics and Political Science, and he holds an M.A. in Development Economics from the University of Sussex and a B.A. in Economics from the University of Nottingham.

Expertise

Critical Minerals
Mining Industry
Carbon Markets

Publications See all Timothy Laing’s publications

Electric Vehicle Battery Chemistry Evolutions: Critical Mineral Implications

The material intensity of the energy transition has been a topic of growing importance in…

18th December 2024