• ‪البرنامج الرئيس نمذجة الطاقة ونماذج الاقتصاد القياسية
  • ‪الاهتمامات البحثية نماذج الاقتصاد القياسية، بالاضافة الى كفاءة استهلاك الطاقة ومعدّل الطلب عليها

‪السيرة الذاتية

تشغل شهد حاليا وظيفة محلل بحوث في مركز الملك عبد الله للدراسات والبحوث البترولية وتهتم خلال عملها بالتركيز على نمذجة الطاقة باستخدام نماذج الاقتصاد القياسية، تحمل درجة البكالوريوس في هندسة الكمبيوتر والكهرباء من جامعة عفت في جدة

الإصدارات

عرض جميع الإصدارات ‬‪شهد
  • كتاب
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  • المقالات المحكمة الخارجية
GCC-NEA oil trade: Competition in asian oil markets and the Russian ‘Pivot’ east

GCC-NEA oil trade: Competition in asian oil markets and the Russian ‘Pivot’ east

KAPSARC: The purpose of this paper is to assess Middle East crude oil exporter strategies to maintain or expand market share in Asian oil demand. It also analyses the impact of changing global crude oil flows on key oil exporters’ revenues and on inter-regional price differentials by utilizing the KAPSARC Global Oil Trade Model (GOTM). Oil trade between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Northeast Asia (NEA) will be subject to new pressures as major crude oil producers from outside the region compete to place their barrels in Asia. African, Latin American, and Russian flows of crude are increasingly redirected towards Asia, challenging the traditional large exporters in the Middle East. GCC oil producers are engaged in a number of initiatives to protect market shares in Asia. © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2016.

1st January 2016
نمذجة الطلب على الطاقة للصناعة في المملكة العربية السعودية وفهم دوافعه

نمذجة الطلب على الطاقة للصناعة في المملكة العربية السعودية وفهم دوافعه

في عام 2016 ، شكَّل قطاع الصناعة في المملكة العربية السعودية نسبة 30.3 % من إجمالي الاستهلاك النهائي للطاقة في المملكة العربية السعودية (منشور 2018) الخاص بالوكالة الدولية للطاقة. وترتفع هذه النسبة إلى أكثر من 50 ٪ عندما تشمل بيانات استهلاك الطاقة اللقيم المستخدم لصناعة البتروكيماويات وللصناعات الأخرى.

3rd December 2019
Energy Relations and Policy Making in Asia

Energy Relations and Policy Making in Asia

Trade between the economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and North East Asia (NEA) reached $471 billion in 2013, based almost entirely on oil and gas. The GCC sends 44 percent of its exports to NEA, which depends on the GCC region for a very high proportion of its oil imports. Trade relations are otherwise very limited: the GCC takes only 3 percent of NEA’s exports.

8th August 2016
Asian Premium or North Atlantic Discount: Does Geographical Diversification in Oil Trade Always Impose Costs?

Asian Premium or North Atlantic Discount: Does Geographical Diversification in Oil Trade Always Impose Costs?

It is popularly believed that importers of oil diversify their suppliers to achieve security of supply and that exporters diversify their customer base to achieve security of demand. However, this diversification comes at a cost, compared with buying from or selling to the most economically attractive counterparties— analogous to paying an insurance premium. In fact, our research suggests that this illustration may not properly describe the outcomes for large individual producers or consumers (or coalitions of these) and that diversification can also be a strategy for revenue maximization or cost minimization. We have developed KAPSARC’s Global Oil Trade Model (GOTM), which is calibrated to the configuration of the global oil markets in 2012, to demonstrate our framework. Our model shows that, in 2012, the volumes of supply and demand and the trade flows constrain the valid candidates to combine diversification with economic gain. Only the trading pair of the Arabian Gulf exporters and North East Asian importers can benefit. This is the illustration that we develop in this paper. However, a future reconfiguration of crude flows—perhaps with growth in North American exports to the Pacific or a major pivot by Russia to sell material volumes to China and other North East Asian customers—could introduce new players. KAPSARC’s framework may prove valuable to understanding potential future dislocations in crude oil trade flows.

6th August 2015

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