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      India’s Ambition to Achieve Net-Zero Emissions by 2070: Uncertainty and Opportunity
      Future of Global Oil Markets

      India’s Ambition to Achieve Net-Zero Emissions by 2070: Uncertainty and Opportunity

      Yagyavalk Bhatt, Zlata Sergeeva, Brian Efird

      The special report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius (°C) above pre-industrial levels highlighted the importance of achieving net-zero emissions or a carbon-neutral future. There has subsequently been…

      Yagyavalk Bhatt Bhatt, Yagyavalk
      Zlata Sergeeva Sergeeva, Zlata
      Brian Efird Efird, Brian
      29th December 2021
      KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook (KOMO)
      Future of Global Oil Markets

      KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook (KOMO)

      The drivers of this quarter’s global demand outlook stem from multiple factors (i.e., a slower roll-out of vaccinations in developing countries, multiple continued lockdowns in several countries, rising inflation, including shipping costs, lagging delivery times, the usual seasonal behavior of…

      4th November 2021
      Implications of the 2021 Iran-China Deal for the Oil Market
      Future of Global Oil Markets

      Implications of the 2021 Iran-China Deal for the Oil Market

      Emre Hatipoglu, Majed A. Al Suwailem

      In late March 2021, China and Iran signed a cooperation pact to stimulate investments in Iran’s oil, gas and petrochemical infrastructure. We refer to this pact as the ‘Iran-China deal’ throughout this manuscript. This deal attracted substantial attention for its…

      Emre Hatipoglu Hatipoglu, Emre
      Majed A. Al Suwailem Al Suwailem, Majed A.
      5th October 2021
      KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook (KOMO)
      Future of Global Oil Markets

      KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook (KOMO)

      The drivers of this quarter’s significant demand growth will be the reopening of COVID-related shutdowns/behaviors, continued economic recovery and seasonal consumption patterns. We anticipate that the most significant quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) growth will come from the U.S., followed by the OECD…

      22nd August 2021
      Will Shale Impede or Accelerate the Global Energy Transition?
      Future of Global Oil Markets

      Will Shale Impede or Accelerate the Global Energy Transition?

      United States (U.S.) shale has transformed oil market dynamics in ways we never thought possible. Shale oil has transformed the oil supply curve through massive supply shocks, such as the rapid increase in tight oil production over the past decade,…

      2nd June 2021
      KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook
      Future of Global Oil Markets

      KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook

      Total global oil demand is expected to increase year-on-year (YoY) by 4.3 million barrels per day (MMb/d) in 2021 to 96.3 MMb/d. It is expected to further grow by 3.2 MMb/d in 2022 (300,000 barrels per day [Kb/d] less than…

      2nd May 2021
      Are Bankruptcies Healthy For The Tight Oil Sector?
      Future of Global Oil Markets

      Are Bankruptcies Healthy For The Tight Oil Sector?

      Majed A. Al Suwailem, Malik Selemankhel

      Between January 2015 and mid-2020, about 69 of the approximately 2,160 small-to-medium independent oil companies operating in the tight oil sector filed for Chapter 11 protection. These filings mostly occurred in 2016 and 2019. A lack of financial discipline and…

      Majed A. Al Suwailem Al Suwailem, Majed A.
      Malik Selemankhel Selemankhel, Malik
      14th February 2021
      KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook
      Future of Global Oil Markets

      KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook

      Total global oil demand is expected to increase year-on-year (YoY) by 4.2 million barrels per day (MMb/d) in 2021 and further grow by 3.5 MMb/d in 2022, returning to 2019 levels by the third quarter (Q3) 2022. The International Monetary…

      2nd February 2021
      Can Oil Refiners Adjust to a Greater Supply of Shale Oil?
      Future of Global Oil Markets

      Can Oil Refiners Adjust to a Greater Supply of Shale Oil?

      Walid Matar, Rami Shabaneh

      The advent of American shale oil and its prospects for continued production growth have raised concerns about whether oil refineries can handle the increasingly lighter crude oil supply. To provide a perspective on this issue, we run a global oil…

      Walid Matar Matar, Walid
      Rami Shabaneh Shabaneh, Rami
      6th January 2021
      KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook
      Future of Global Oil Markets

      KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook

      The global oil market moved into deficit in the third quarter of this year and is expected to remain in deficit during the next eight quarters. We expect the deficit to range between 3.4 – 0.1 million barrels per day…

      29th October 2020
      KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook
      Future of Global Oil Markets

      KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook

      The global oil market is likely to move into deficit as early as this quarter. The most significant driver of this shift has been strong compliance with the production cuts agreed by OPEC and its partners (OPEC+) at the group’s…

      6th August 2020
      Cooperate or Compete? Insights from Simulating a Global Oil Market with No Residual Supplier
      Future of Global Oil Markets

      Cooperate or Compete? Insights from Simulating a Global Oil Market with No Residual Supplier

      Bertrand Rioux, Abdullah AlJarboua, Fatih Karanfil, Axel Pierru, Shahd Alrashed, Colin Ward

      Structural changes in the global oil sector are disrupting conventional market dynamics and the roles played by competing and cooperating producers. Industry players are adjusting to the shale (or ‘tight’) oil revolution and the possibility of plateauing or peaking global…

      Bertrand Rioux Rioux, Bertrand
      Abdullah AlJarboua AlJarboua, Abdullah
      Fatih Karanfil Karanfil, Fatih
      Axel Pierru Pierru, Axel
      Shahd Alrashed Alrashed, Shahd
      Colin Ward Ward, Colin
      6th August 2020
      Simulating a Global Oil Market With No Residual Supplier
      Future of Global Oil Markets

      Simulating a Global Oil Market With No Residual Supplier

      Bertrand Rioux, Abdullah AlJarboua, Fatih Karanfil, Axel Pierru, Shahd Alrashed, Colin Ward

      Motivation and objective of the study What if OPEC decided to abandon organizing residual production collectively, transitioning the world permanently to a competitive oil market? This commentary is based on a forthcoming KAPSARC paper, “Cooperate or Compete? Insights from Simulating…

      Bertrand Rioux Rioux, Bertrand
      Abdullah AlJarboua AlJarboua, Abdullah
      Fatih Karanfil Karanfil, Fatih
      Axel Pierru Pierru, Axel
      Shahd Alrashed Alrashed, Shahd
      Colin Ward Ward, Colin
      16th July 2020
      World Oil and Inventory Study: A Global VAR Analysis
      Future of Global Oil Markets

      World Oil and Inventory Study: A Global VAR Analysis

      Jennifer Considine, Abdullah Aldayel, Emre Hatipoglu

      Despite numerous journal articles, forecasting studies, and books, very little is known about the actual quantitative value, or economic cost, of shocks to world oil markets. The potential consequences of a given political or economic disturbance are unclear, and appear…

      Jennifer Considine Considine, Jennifer
      Abdullah Aldayel Aldayel, Abdullah
      Emre Hatipoglu Hatipoglu, Emre
      10th June 2020
      KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook
      Future of Global Oil Markets

      KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook

      The recent declaration by OPEC and its partners (OPEC+), alongside the G20 and some non-G20 countries (OPEC++), to cut oil production should help stabilize the market over the coming quarters. OPEC+ took the lead in finalizing the agreement to cut…

      5th May 2020
      Crude Oil and Refined Products
      Future of Natural Gas Markets Future of Global Oil Markets

      Crude Oil and Refined Products

      Rami Shabaneh, Abdullah Aldayel

      The power sector in Saudi Arabia makes up just over half of the natural gas demand in the Kingdom, followed by the industrial sector and non-energy use as a feedstock for petrochemicals.

      Rami Shabaneh Shabaneh, Rami
      Abdullah Aldayel Aldayel, Abdullah
      6th April 2020
      Market Structure, Inventories and Oil Prices: An Empirical Analysis
      Future of Global Oil Markets

      Market Structure, Inventories and Oil Prices: An Empirical Analysis

      Jennifer Considine, Philipp Galkin, Abdullah Aldayel

      Understanding the relationship between crude oil prices and inventory levels is critical for policymakers and economic actors. The size of the ‘basis,’ or spread between spot and futures prices, reflects the level of inventories and can trigger arbitrage trading. The…

      Jennifer Considine Considine, Jennifer
      Philipp Galkin Galkin, Philipp
      Abdullah Aldayel Aldayel, Abdullah
      24th February 2020
      Analytical Approaches to Blending Political Science With the Study of Energy Markets
      Future of Global Oil Markets

      Analytical Approaches to Blending Political Science With the Study of Energy Markets

      Energy is arguably the most valuable traded commodity in the world. Unlike most other commodities, energy resources are essential for economic and military activity and therefore have unique strategic importance, especially because states vary widely in their energy resource endowment.…

      18th February 2020