Methane Emissions Baseline Forecasts for Saudi Arabia Using the Structural Time Series Model and Autometrics

  • Focus Area Productivity and Economic Diversification Productivity and Economic Diversification
  • Type Discussion paper
  • Date 14 May 2023
Print

Abstract

Reducing methane (CH4) emissions is key to near-term efforts to limit global warming. CH4 is the second most abundant anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) in the atmosphere after carbon dioxide (CO2). The production, transport, and consumption of fossil fuels, in addition to waste and agriculture, account for most anthropogenic CH4 emissions globally (IPCC 2018). Although CH4has only a 12-year lifetime in the atmosphere, it is 84 times more potent per ton than CO2 in a 20-year period and 28 times more potent in a 100-year period (IPCC 2018). The drastically stronger short-term potency of CH4 explains why its short-term impact on global warming is considerably greater than that of CO2. Therefore, meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement necessitates not only decarbonization but also significant CH4 emissions reductions, especially in the near term.

Authors

Anwar Gasim

Anwar Gasim

Principal Fellow- Climate and Sustainability Anwar is an energy and environmental economist with an engineering background and over a decade of research and advisory experience…

Anwar is an energy and environmental economist with an engineering background and over a decade of research and advisory experience around the areas of energy demand, greenhouse gas emissions, energy price reform, and carbon pricing. He currently leads multiple cross-functional teams on key projects tackling these areas, with a proven track record of publishing high-impact papers, providing consulting services to policymakers, and building the capabilities of talent within the organization. Anwar’s research has been published in leading energy and environmental journals and has been picked up by leading news media. Anwar also has experience transforming organizations, having been a member of task forces responsible for refreshing organizational strategy and building human capital.

Anwar is currently wrapping up a Ph.D. from UCL in Sustainable Resources (sub-specialization in Economics). He holds an M.Sc. from KAUST in Electrical Engineering and a B.Eng. from the University of Liverpool in Electronics and Communication Engineering.

Expertise

  • Energy price reform; Energy demand; Measuring GHG emissions; Carbon pricing; Carbon markets

Publications See all Anwar Gasim’s publications

Lester C. Hunt

Lester C. Hunt

Visiting Researcher- Climate & Sustainability Lester C. Hunt is a part-time Professor of Economics at the University of Portsmouth and a KAPSARC Visiting Researcher. Lester…

Lester C. Hunt is a part-time Professor of Economics at the University of Portsmouth and a KAPSARC Visiting Researcher.

Lester previously worked at the Universities of Essex (1979-1980), Swansea (1980-1985 and 1987-1989), Surrey (1989-1991 and 1999-2017), and Portsmouth (1994-1998, and 2017 onwards). At Surrey he was Head of Economics (1999-2003) and Director of SEEC (2003-2015). At Portsmouth he was Head of Economics (1996 -1998) and Head of Economics and Finance (2017-2021).

In addition to working in higher education, Lester was an Economic Adviser in the forecasting division of HM Treasury (1985-1987), an Energy Analyst/Economist at Midlands Electricity (1991-1994) and a Senior Research Fellow at KAPSARC (2015-2017).

Lester holds a B.Sc. (Hons) in Economics with Econometrics from Loughborough University, an MA in Economics from the University of Essex, and a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Surrey. He has been an Editor of The Energy Journal since 2006.

Expertise

  • Energy Economics and Policy

Publications See all Lester C. Hunt’s publications

Jeyhun Mikayilov

Jeyhun Mikayilov

Principal Fellow- Energy Macro & Microeconomics Jeyhun is a principal  fellow at KAPSARC. He received his B.A. and M.S. from Azerbaijan State University (now Baku State…

Jeyhun is a principal  fellow at KAPSARC. He received his B.A. and M.S. from Azerbaijan State University (now Baku State University) in mathematics. Jeyhun holds a Ph.D. in applied mathematics and a D.S. in econometrics. Before joining KAPSARC in September 2017, Jeyhun was an associate professor at the Department of Statistics and Econometrics at Azerbaijan State University, and the Department of Economics at Qafqaz University, where he taught econometrics, statistics, and mathematical economics. His other roles have included director of the Research Institute for Social Sciences and Humanities, and head of the Center for Socio-Economic Research. Jeyhun was a postdoctoral researcher at Indiana University Bloomington, United States (U.S.). He has also been a visiting researcher at several institutions, including the Center for Econometric Research, Sungyunkwan University in Seoul, South Korea; Vistula University, Warsaw, Poland; the University of North Texas, and the University of South Texas, both in the U.S.

Jeyhun’s research is focused on applied time series econometrics, the economics of energy, the environment and sustainable development. He has authored over 40 scientific articles published in peer-reviewed journals and is an editorial board member of the International Journal of Advanced Multidisciplinary Research and Review, the Journal of Management, Economics and Industrial Organization, and the Journal of Socio-Economic Studies, and a member of the International Association for Energy Economics.

Expertise

  • Applied Time Series Econometrics
  • The Economics of Energy and Environment
  • Sustainable Development

Publications See all Jeyhun Mikayilov’s publications

Share this Publication

Related projects

See all projects

Stay informed

 I'm interested in

Select the updates you'd like to receive from us

About

A bit about you