Aldubyan, Mohammad

  • Primary Program Climate and Sustainability
  • Research Interests Energy Efficiency, Energy Demand, Modeling

Biography

Mohammad is a fellow in KAPSARC’s Climate & Sustainability program. His research focuses on energy efficiency in buildings, energy demand, and energy modeling. He is currently leading the Residential Energy Model (REEM), which simulates residential energy demand and estimates the impact of energy efficiency programs on Saudi Arabia’s housing sector.

Mohammad holds an M.Sc. in Renewable and Clean Energy from the University of Dayton, Ohio, and an M.Sc. in Economics from Purdue University, West Lafayette.

Publications

See all Mohammad’s publications
  • Discussion papers
  • Methodology papers
  • Data Insights
  • Instant Insights
  • Commentaries
  • KAPSARC journal articles
The Future of Residential Electricity Demand in Saudi Arabia and the Role of Energy Efficiency in the 2060 Net Zero Pledge

The Future of Residential Electricity Demand in Saudi Arabia and the Role of Energy Efficiency in the 2060 Net Zero Pledge

Abstract Saudi Arabia has set the ambitious goal to reach net zero by 2060, and reducing domestic electricity consumption and thus curbing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is critical. Since the residential sector is the biggest consumer of electricity in the Kingdom, understanding how its electricity consumption will evolve in the long term can help policymakers to design policies through which the sector can contribute effectively to that target.

25th July 2024
Achieving Net-Zero GHG Emissions of Saudi Arabia by 2060: The Transformation of the Building Sector

Achieving Net-Zero GHG Emissions of Saudi Arabia by 2060: The Transformation of the Building Sector

In this paper, an economy-wide, net-zero pathway that enables Saudi Arabia to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2060 is investigated, with a specific focus on the critical role played by the building sector. An exploration is undertaken of the significance of energy efficiency measures, the circular carbon economy framework and the Saudi Energy Efficiency Center’s instrumental contributions in reducing energy demand and GHG emissions within the building sector.

25th March 2024
Impact of Stay-home Orders on the Electricity Demand of Residential Buildings: Case Study of Saudi Arabia

Impact of Stay-home Orders on the Electricity Demand of Residential Buildings: Case Study of Saudi Arabia

The analysis presented in this paper evaluates the impact of the COVID-19 stay-home order (or lockdown) on electricity consumption among Saudi residential building stock. Our analysis is based on an assessment of monitored data obtained for a sample of housing units as well as the results from a residential energy model (REEM). Specifically, we estimate the impact of the stay-home order imposed due to COVID-19 in most Saudi regions between March 15 and June 15, 2020, on residential electricity consumption.

14th April 2022
Cost-Effectiveness of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Technologies for Reducing Peak Demand

Cost-Effectiveness of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Technologies for Reducing Peak Demand

This paper describes an optimization-based approach to evaluate measures providing peak electricity demand reduction cost benefits for Saudi residential buildings. These measures can be categorized as energy efficiency (EE) and renewable energy (RE) measures. Specifically, this paper models the existing Saudi building stock using 56 housing prototypes based on types, vintages and locations.

22nd December 2021
Projecting Global Oil Demand for the Buildings Sector

Projecting Global Oil Demand for the Buildings Sector

As one of the largest consumers of energy resources, the building sector plays a key role in the evolution of the global energy landscape. Buildings account for approximately one-third of the world’s final energy consumption. This methodology paper aims to provide a projection of oil demand in the building sector. The adopted modeling framework disaggregates the oil demand outlook by four fuel types and eight regions, which, in aggregate, add up to establish the global long-term oil demand outlook for the building sector up to 2050.

6th May 2024
Modeling Long-Term Oil Demand in the Agricultural Sector

Modeling Long-Term Oil Demand in the Agricultural Sector

The agricultural sector and global food security are facing an increasing number of risks due to climate change, the increasing population size, rising energy and agricultural demands, competing demands for land for biofuel production, and the degradation of soil quality. Between 2001 and 2018, the annual consumption of food and agricultural products increased rapidly by approximately 48%, and there was twofold population growth (WEF 2021). This increase in agricultural demand has also stimulated the demand for energy products, as the agricultural sector relies heavily on specific fuels for heating, machinery, and other activities. Given the consistent increasing trend of the global population, the world will be faced with the need to feed approximately 10 billion people by 2050, or approximately 50% more food than in 2010.

17th January 2024
Residential Energy Model for Evaluating Energy Demand and Energy Efficiency Programs in Saudi Residential Buildings

Residential Energy Model for Evaluating Energy Demand and Energy Efficiency Programs in Saudi Residential Buildings

This paper describes the development of the Residential Energy Model (REEM) for Saudi Arabia using an engineering bottom-up approach. The model can assess energy demand for the current residential building stock and the impact of energy efficiency and demand-side management programs. It accounts for the makeup and features of the Kingdom’s existing housing stock using 54 prototypes of residential buildings defined by three building types, three vintages, and six locations representing different climatic zones.

21st February 2021
The Evolution of Gasoline Demand and Prices in Saudi Arabia

The Evolution of Gasoline Demand and Prices in Saudi Arabia

Gasoline is the primary fuel for the passenger car fleet in Saudi Arabia. The demand for passenger cars, and hence gasoline, is primarily driven by the size, geography and economic growth of the country, its domestic fuel prices, and the tendency for consumers to use private transportation, among other factors.

3rd February 2021
Per Capita Regional Electricity Consumption in the Saudi Housing Sector

Per Capita Regional Electricity Consumption in the Saudi Housing Sector

Aggregate residential electricity consumption data for Saudi Arabia conceals regional disparities. Although electricity prices are unified across the country, electricity consumption patterns can be driven by regional factors such as wealth, population size, and weather conditions, among others.

7th September 2020
Geothermal – Saudi Arabia’s Next Energy Vector?

Geothermal – Saudi Arabia’s Next Energy Vector?

For decades, Saudi Arabia’s power sector has heavily relied on hydrocarbons for electricity generation. Their abundant supply, affordability, and differential performance have made them a top choice. A significant portion of this electricity provides power for air conditioning systems and water desalination plants.

30th April 2024
Why Did Domestic Gasoline Prices Fall in Saudi Arabia?

Why Did Domestic Gasoline Prices Fall in Saudi Arabia?

What is behind the dramatic fall in gasoline prices? On May 11, 2020, Saudi Arabia slashed its domestic gasoline prices. The price of 91-octane gasoline fell from 1.31 to 0.67 Saudi Arabian riyals (SAR) per liter, while the price of 95-octane gasoline fell from 1.47 to 0.82 SAR per liter. As a result of these price reductions, domestic gasoline prices today are very close to those that prevailed before the gasoline price reform in 2018. As a result, some mistakenly believe that Saudi Arabia has introduced gasoline subsidies.

7th June 2020
Gasoline Price Reform in Saudi Arabia

Gasoline Price Reform in Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia has been adjusting gasoline prices on a quarterly basis since the start of 2019, with the most recent adjustment occurring on July 14, 2019. These adjustments depend on changes in international oil prices, and are smaller than the major changes in gasoline prices that occurred because of the energy price reforms of 2016 and 2018.

1st September 2019
Ground-Source Air Conditioning: A Potential Solution for Saudi Arabia’s Building Sector

Ground-Source Air Conditioning: A Potential Solution for Saudi Arabia’s Building Sector

Energy consumption for cooling in Saudi Arabia is notably high due to the country’s extreme climatic conditions, with air conditioning accounting for a significant portion of electricity demand. Addressing this challenge requires innovative solutions that align with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 sustainability goals. This paper explores the potential of ground-source air-conditioning systems as a sustainable alternative, evaluating their feasibility, benefits, and policy implications to support the Kingdom’s energy efficiency and decarbonization efforts.

8th April 2025
Ratifying the Kigali Amendment Challenges and Opportunities for Saudi Arabia

Ratifying the Kigali Amendment Challenges and Opportunities for Saudi Arabia

The Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol is an international agreement which continues the effort to protect the ozone layer but adds the phase out of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), potent greenhouse gases that contribute significantly to global warming. The international efforts on the Montreal Protocol are some of the most successful ones, with projections that the ozone layer will be healed 80% by 2050.

23rd January 2025
Smart Energy-Saving Technologies and Their Potential Application in Buildings Lessons for Saudi Arabia

Smart Energy-Saving Technologies and Their Potential Application in Buildings Lessons for Saudi Arabia

The increasing demand for energy in our modern world has led to a critical need to conserve energy resources. The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) predicts that under the 1.5°C scenario, electricity will be the primary energy carrier in the future, with a threefold increase in its generation capacity from 27 petawatt-hours (PWh) in 2020 to approximately 90 PWh in 2050; additionally, the share of renewable energy sources in electricity generation is expected to increase from 28% in 2020 to 91% in 2050.

12th May 2024
The Rebound Effect in Residential Energy Demand: The Case of Saudi Arabia

The Rebound Effect in Residential Energy Demand: The Case of Saudi Arabia

A Bird’s-Eye View of the Rebound Effect Although the rebound effect phenomenon has sparked heightened policy and academic debate in recent years, the topic is not new. The concept of rebound – and its extreme form, “backfire”, where energy efficiency leads to higher energy consumption – emerged in the work of 19th-century economist Stanley Jevons (Jevons, 1865). Jevons, in his book The Coal Question (1865), postulated that energy consumption would increase with increasing industrial efficiency as individuals produce and consume more goods.  

8th May 2023
The Role of Building Energy Efficiency in Shaping the Energy Transition in Saudi Arabia: Key challenges and initiatives

The Role of Building Energy Efficiency in Shaping the Energy Transition in Saudi Arabia: Key challenges and initiatives

This commentary discusses a crucial topic that has emerged in the policy and economic literature in recent years: the potential role of energy efficiency in the current energy transition. It provides a straightforward analysis of the prominent role that residential energy efficiency may play in shaping the energy transition and the pathway to sustainability. The primary focus is the energy efficiency initiatives in Saudi Arabia, as an example of a country that is very concerned by the transformation of the energy landscape.

8th February 2022
Building Back Better in Saudi Arabia With Energy Efficiency

Building Back Better in Saudi Arabia With Energy Efficiency

The first priority for governments in managing the COVID-19 crisis is the health of their citizens. However, the implementation of restrictions on activity necessary for limiting the spread of the disease has caused the greatest global recession since the Great Depression. Many governments are considering how to support citizens’ livelihoods and stimulate economies hit hard by the disease.

5th October 2021
The Impact of High Temperatures on Battery Performance in Solar-PV Systems With Storage

The Impact of High Temperatures on Battery Performance in Solar-PV Systems With Storage

The World Bank estimates that nearly 1 billion people globally have no grid electricity access. Diesel generators are the default source of energy for locations lacking access to the grid. The falling costs of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation and battery storage systems will enable fully renewable, reliable, and economic off-grid generation.

17th December 2019

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