• ‪البرنامج الرئيس اقتصاديات أنظمة الطاقة
  • ‪الاهتمامات البحثية أسواق الطاقة وتنظيماتها

‪السيرة الذاتية

فريدريك ميرفي أستاذ في كلية فوكس للأعمال بجامعة تيمبل لمدة 30 عاما. وكان باحثاً زائراً في كابسارك حيث يشارك في تطوير نماذج الطاقة وكتابة تحليلات السياسات في مجموعة من المجالات، بما في ذلك استخدام الطاقة المحلية في المملكة العربية السعودية وقوة السوق في أسواق النفط العالمية وتصميم وإدارة صناديق تثبيت الدخل واقتصاديات الطاقة في الصين والهند. يعمل بشكل رئيسي في مجال التنبؤ بسوق الطاقة وتحليل سياسات الطاقة. قبل انضمامه إلى جامعة تيمبل، كان في إدارة معلومات الطاقة بوزارة الطاقة الأمريكية وإدارة الطاقة الاتحادية قبل ذلك حيث ترأس المجموعة التي قامت بتحليل الأثر الاقتصادي للقوانين التي صدرت خلال رئاسة الرئيس كارتر وتطويرها وتنفيذ نماذج التنبؤ المستخدمة بعد ذلك في تحليلات السياسات والتنبؤات الواردة في التقرير السنوي لتقييم الأثر البيئي. وقد نشر أكثر من 100 مقالة محكمة. في إحدى الدراسات كان في المرتبة في 20 الباحثين الأكثر نشرا في مجاله على مدى خمسين عاما. وكان رئيس تحرير مجلة إنتيرفاسس، محرر منطقة لأبحاث العمليات، و إنفورمز جورنال في مجال الحوسبة، ونائب رئيس المطبوعات عن إنفورمز وجمعية بحوث العمليات في أمريكا. وقد شارك في دراسة قضايا السياسة الاقتصادية المحلية، بما في ذلك تقديم المشورة للجنة الإصلاح الضريبي لمدينة فيلادلفيا، وتقدير تأثير بناء الكازينوهات في فيلادلفيا، وإعادة تقسيم الدوائر السياسية. كما قام بدراسة السفن حاويات النفط على نهر ديلاوير.

الإصدارات

عرض جميع الإصدارات ‬‪فريدريك
  • ورقة نقاش
  • دراسة
  • المقالات المحكمة الخارجية
  • مقالات كابسارك المحكمة
التكاليف والمكاسب الناتجةعن تنسيق توليد الكهرباء فيدول مجلس التعاون الخليجيباستخدام الرابط الكهربائي

التكاليف والمكاسب الناتجةعن تنسيق توليد الكهرباء فيدول مجلس التعاون الخليجيباستخدام الرابط الكهربائي

ثبتت دول مجلس التعاون الخليجي شبكة من خطوط النقل الكهربائي ذات الجهد العالي، والمعروفة باسم الرابط الكهربائي بين دول مجلس التعاون الخليجي، الذي يربط الدول األعضاء المملكة العربية السعودية والبحرين والكويت وعمان وقطر والإمارات العربية المتحدة ببعضها. نجح الرابط الكهربائي في تقديم خدمات موثوقية لدول مجلس التعاون الخليجي لكنه لم يحقق بعد إمكاناته الكاملة بوصفه منصة لدمج أنظمة الكهرباء الفردية على نحو كامل. تحلل هذه الوثيقة التكاليف والمكاسب المحتملة الناتجة عن تبادل الكهرباء بين دول مجلس التعاون الخليجي. وبالنظر إلى المناخ السياسي الحالي، فإن ذلك لا يشمل تبادل الكهرباء مع قطر.

June 10, 2018
الأثر الاقتصادي لضوابط الأسعارعلى سلسلة إمدادات الغازالطبيعي في الصين

الأثر الاقتصادي لضوابط الأسعارعلى سلسلة إمدادات الغازالطبيعي في الصين

على الرغم من التقدم الكبير الذي أحرزته الصين في سبيل تحرير سوق الغاز الطبيعي، إلا أن بعض المجالات الرئيسة مثل إمكانية الوصول إلى السوق وآليات التسعير لا تزال تحتكرها الحكومة بشدة أو تتحكم بها. ولتقييم كيفية تأثير هذه التشوهات على السوق، قمنا بتطوير نموذج مشكلة التكامل المختلطة لصناعة إمدادات الغاز الطبيعي في الصين، وتم معايرته مع بيانات عام 2015 .

May 24, 2018
إدارة صناديق استقرار الإيراداتالنفطية: إطار لوضع السياسات

إدارة صناديق استقرار الإيراداتالنفطية: إطار لوضع السياسات

توفر صناديق استقرار الإيرادات النفطية حماية قصيرة الأجل ضد التقلبات في الإيرادات النفطية – مثلما تمثل ودائع الحكومة السعودية واحتياطاتها لدى مؤسسة النقد العربي السعودي مصد لعزل موازنة الحكومة عن التقلبات التي تشهدها الإيرادات النفطية. وعلى النقيض من ذلك، تعمل صناديق الثروة السيادية على خلق مصدر دخل للأجيال القادمة، لتحل محل مصادر الدخل من الموارد غير المتجددة – وهذا هو أحد أهداف صندوق الااستثمارات العامة السعودي. لقد وضعنا إطارًا لتحسين السياسات، وذلك للإضافة إلى صناديق الاستقرار والسحب منها، حيث نطبق هذا الإطار على المملكة العربية السعودية على سبيل دراسة حالة، استنادا إلى البيانات المتاحة للجمهور. تبدو النتائج الكمية حساسة تجاه الفرضيات المعينة حول احتمالية ارتفاع أسعار النفط، بيد أن النتائج الإجمالية تدعم مجموعة كبيرة من الفرضيات.

October 4, 2017
Potential Gains From Reforming Price Caps in China’s Power Sector

Potential Gains From Reforming Price Caps in China’s Power Sector

When energy sectors transition from government-controlled to market-driven systems, the legacy regulatory instruments can create unintended market distortions and lead to higher costs. In China, the most notable regulatory throwback is ceilings on electricity prices that generators can charge utilities, which are specified by plant type and region. We built a mixed complementarity model calibrated to 2012 data to examine the impact of these price caps on the electricity and coal sectors.

September 29, 2016
Can Adoption of Rooftop Solar PV Panels Trigger a Utility Death Spiral?

Can Adoption of Rooftop Solar PV Panels Trigger a Utility Death Spiral?

The growing penetration of distributed energy resources (DER) such as solar and wind power is causing major changes in the electricity market. One key concern is that existing tariffs incentivize ‘free riding’ behavior by households, which leads to a cycle of rising electricity prices and DER adoption, thereby eroding utility revenues and start a death spiral. We developed a model using data from two cities in the U.S. to explore this issue.

May 15, 2016
Economic Impacts of Debottlenecking Congestion in the Chinese Coal Supply Chain

Economic Impacts of Debottlenecking Congestion in the Chinese Coal Supply Chain

China’s coal industry grew at unprecedented rates during the first decade of the 2000s in order to support equally unprecedented economic growth. In that type of environment, it is impossible for the capacities of every link in the supply chain to be correctly sized all the time. In order to understand the consequences of such mismatches, KAPSARC has developed a production and multi modal transshipment model of China’s domestic coal market, calibrated to 2011 data. This allows us to examine what the global and domestic consequences might have been had the bottlenecks not existed in 2011.

September 7, 2015
Asian Premium or North Atlantic Discount: Does Geographical Diversification in Oil Trade Always Impose Costs?

Asian Premium or North Atlantic Discount: Does Geographical Diversification in Oil Trade Always Impose Costs?

It is popularly believed that importers of oil diversify their suppliers to achieve security of supply and that exporters diversify their customer base to achieve security of demand. However, this diversification comes at a cost, compared with buying from or selling to the most economically attractive counterparties— analogous to paying an insurance premium. In fact, our research suggests that this illustration may not properly describe the outcomes for large individual producers or consumers (or coalitions of these) and that diversification can also be a strategy for revenue maximization or cost minimization. We have developed KAPSARC’s Global Oil Trade Model (GOTM), which is calibrated to the configuration of the global oil markets in 2012, to demonstrate our framework. Our model shows that, in 2012, the volumes of supply and demand and the trade flows constrain the valid candidates to combine diversification with economic gain. Only the trading pair of the Arabian Gulf exporters and North East Asian importers can benefit. This is the illustration that we develop in this paper. However, a future reconfiguration of crude flows—perhaps with growth in North American exports to the Pacific or a major pivot by Russia to sell material volumes to China and other North East Asian customers—could introduce new players. KAPSARC’s framework may prove valuable to understanding potential future dislocations in crude oil trade flows.

August 6, 2015
Efficient Industrial Energy Use: The First Step in Transitioning Saudi Arabia’s Energy Mix

Efficient Industrial Energy Use: The First Step in Transitioning Saudi Arabia’s Energy Mix

External observers worry about whether Saudi domestic consumption of oil will crowd out exports. This is based on simple extrapolations which suggest that in a little more than 20 years Saudi Arabia may become a net importer of hydrocarbon fuels. However, our research does not support this. Based on the “baseline scenario” macroeconomic assumptions in Oxford Economics’ global economic and industry models, we project Saudi Arabia’s energy balances until 2032 using the KAPSARC Energy Model (KEM).

June 7, 2015
Why build energy models as MCPs? An economic perspective

Why build energy models as MCPs? An economic perspective

The discipline of microeconomics focuses on the outcomes of the actions of economic agents, where economic agents can be individuals as producers and consumers or organizations that deliver goods or services. Microeconomists have developed a collection of models to understand and represent these behaviors. Mixed Complementarity Problems (MCPs) are among the most recent such models. This paper addresses the community of energy economists who are not necessarily focused on modeling but want to know more about current methods for representing economic equilibria. We describe in non-mathematical terms the advantages of using MCPs over other representations of markets and how to decide when they should be preferred to a more traditional (and possibly simpler) optimization approach such as linear programming.

January 6, 2015
Lowering Saudi Arabia’s fuel consumption and energy system costs without increasing end consumer prices

Lowering Saudi Arabia’s fuel consumption and energy system costs without increasing end consumer prices

Saudi Arabia aims to reduce the growth of its energy demand. This paper outlines an approach that could help the country to reduce substantively its current fuel consumption and could result in a net economic gain without increasing current end consumer prices and while maintaining positive utility sector net cash flows. Using a new multi-sector equilibrium model developed by KAPSARC (the KAPSARC Energy Model or KEM), we estimate the magnitudes of the potential economic gains that different policies would generate. Our long term static version of the model reveals that an annual economic gain exceeding 23 billion USD in 2011, or almost 5% of that year’s GDP, could have been achieved while the water and power sectors continue to live within their cash flows. Our approach—which introduces investment credits for solar and nuclear and allows more natural gas consumption in the power sector—achieves almost all the benefit of raising inter-sector transfer prices for fuels to world market equivalences, but only moderately increases current transfer prices. Importantly, this gain does not require an increase in consumer prices of electricity or water.

March 7, 2014
تطبيق سياسات التسعير البديلة في نماذج التوازن الاقتصادي باستخدام إطار البرمجة الرياضية الموسعة

تطبيق سياسات التسعير البديلة في نماذج التوازن الاقتصادي باستخدام إطار البرمجة الرياضية الموسعة

تمثل‭ ‬النماذج‭ ‬الاقتصادية‭ ‬القياسية‭ ‬المثلى‭ ‬الأسواق‭ ‬في‭ ‬حالة‭ ‬المنافسة‭ ‬الكاملة‭ ،‬Perfect Competition‭ ‬ ‬ويشيع‭ ‬استخدامها‭ ‬رُغم‭ ‬أنها‭ ‬قد‭ ‬لا‭ ‬تمثل‭ ‬السياسات‭ ‬واللوائح‭ ‬الحقيقية‭ ‬بصورةٍ‭ ‬دقيقة‭. ‬كما‭ ‬تتسم‭ ‬نماذج‭ ‬التوازن‭ ‬التي‭ ‬تم‭ ‬تصميمها‭ ‬باستخدام‭ ‬نهج‭ ‬مسألة‭ ‬التكامل‭ ‬المختلطة Mixed Complementarity Problem‬ بالقدرة‭ ‬على‭ ‬محاكاة‭ ‬هياكل‭ ‬التسعير‭ ‬الأكثر‭ ‬مرونة،‭ ‬بما‭ ‬في‭ ‬ذلك‭ ‬الأسعار‭ ‬الخاضعة‭ ‬للرقابة‭ .‬Regulated Prices‭ ‬ويمكن‭ ‬لهذا‭ ‬النهج‭ ‬تقديم‭ ‬تمثيل‭ ‬أكثر‭ ‬دقة‭ ‬للأنظمة‭ ‬الاقتصادية‭ ‬الحقيقية،‭ ‬ورُغم‭ ‬ذلك،‭ ‬يُعد‭ ‬تطويره‭ ‬أمرًا‭ ‬بالغ‭ ‬الصعوبة‭ ‬ويتطلب‭ ‬المزيد‭ ‬من‭ ‬الصيغ‭ ‬الأكثر‭ ‬تعقيدًا‭ ‬بالإضافة‭ ‬إلى‭ ‬مجموعة‭ ‬من‭ ‬المهارات‭ ‬المتقدمة‭.‬

March 12, 2020
A Dynamic Nash Game Model of Oil Market Disruptions and Strategic Stockpiling

A Dynamic Nash Game Model of Oil Market Disruptions and Strategic Stockpiling

Operations Research

1989
Modeling and Forecasting Energy Markets with the Intermediate Future Forecasting System

Modeling and Forecasting Energy Markets with the Intermediate Future Forecasting System

Operations Research

1988
Equation Partitioning Techniques for Solving Partial Equilibrium Models

Equation Partitioning Techniques for Solving Partial Equilibrium Models

European Journal of Operations Research

1987
Computer-assisted Formulation of Linear Programs

Computer-assisted Formulation of Linear Programs

IMA Journal of Management Mathematics

1987
Understanding the Future of United States Electricity Markets

Understanding the Future of United States Electricity Markets

Energy Policy

1987
Using Dynamic Programming for Aggregating Cuts in a Single Drillhole

Using Dynamic Programming for Aggregating Cuts in a Single Drillhole

International Journal of Surface Mining

1987
Mathematical Analysis of the Interactions between Oligopolistic Players and a Competitive Fringe

Mathematical Analysis of the Interactions between Oligopolistic Players and a Competitive Fringe

American Journal of Mathematical and Management Sciences

1987
A Nash Model of Consuming Nations’ Strategic Petroleum Reserves

A Nash Model of Consuming Nations’ Strategic Petroleum Reserves

Management Science

1987
Electric Utility Expansion Planning in the Presence of Existing Capacity: A Nondifferentiable Convex Programming Approach

Electric Utility Expansion Planning in the Presence of Existing Capacity: A Nondifferentiable Convex Programming Approach

Computers and Operations Research

1987
Using dynamic programming for aggregating cuts in a single drillhole

Using dynamic programming for aggregating cuts in a single drillhole

International Journal of Surface Mining Reclamation and Environment:35-40

1986
A Conceptual View of Model Assessment in the Context of Policy Analysis

A Conceptual View of Model Assessment in the Context of Policy Analysis

OMEGA

1986
An Intelligent System for Formulating Mathematical Programs

An Intelligent System for Formulating Mathematical Programs

Decision Support Systems

1986
End Effects in Capacity Expansion Models with Finite Horizons

End Effects in Capacity Expansion Models with Finite Horizons

Naval Research Logistics Quarterly

1986
An Integrated Analysis of U. S. Oil Security Policies

An Integrated Analysis of U. S. Oil Security Policies

Energy Journal

1986
International Cooperation in Tariffs and Stockpiles for Coping with Oil Supply Disruptions

International Cooperation in Tariffs and Stockpiles for Coping with Oil Supply Disruptions

Journal of Policy Modeling

1985
Computing Regulated Market Equilibria with Mathematical Programming

Computing Regulated Market Equilibria with Mathematical Programming

Operations Research

1985
The Replication of Multi‑year Solutions Using Single Period Models of Electric Utility Capacity Expansion Planning

The Replication of Multi‑year Solutions Using Single Period Models of Electric Utility Capacity Expansion Planning

IIE Transactions

1985
A Class of Stochastic Mathematical Programs with Correlated Scale Parameters in the Objective Function and Right‑Hand Side

A Class of Stochastic Mathematical Programs with Correlated Scale Parameters in the Objective Function and Right‑Hand Side

Operations Research

1984
The Capital Supply Curve in Capacity Expansion Models: Some Economic and Algorithmic Aspects

The Capital Supply Curve in Capacity Expansion Models: Some Economic and Algorithmic Aspects

Naval Research Logistics Quarterly

1984
The Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) Oil and Gas Supply Model of the Energy Information Administration

The Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) Oil and Gas Supply Model of the Energy Information Administration

European Journal of Operations Research

1984
Intertemporal Allocation of Capital Costs in Electric Utility Capacity Expansion Planning under Uncertainty

Intertemporal Allocation of Capital Costs in Electric Utility Capacity Expansion Planning under Uncertainty

Management Science

1984
Stackelberg‑Nash‑Cournot Equilibria: Characterizations and Computations

Stackelberg‑Nash‑Cournot Equilibria: Characterizations and Computations

Operations Research

1983
Net Effects of Government Intervention in Energy Markets

Net Effects of Government Intervention in Energy Markets

The Energy Journal

1983
Optimal Output of the Averch‑Johnson Model

Optimal Output of the Averch‑Johnson Model

Atlantic Economic Journal

1982
Linear Programming Based Analysis of Marginal Cost Pricing in Electric Utility Capacity Expansion

Linear Programming Based Analysis of Marginal Cost Pricing in Electric Utility Capacity Expansion

European Journal of Operations Research

1982
Estimating Operational Costs in an Electric Utility

Estimating Operational Costs in an Electric Utility

Omega

1982
A Mathematical Programming Approach for Determining Oligopolistic Equilibrium

A Mathematical Programming Approach for Determining Oligopolistic Equilibrium

Mathematical Programming

1982
The Averch‑Johnson Model with Leontief Production Functions

The Averch‑Johnson Model with Leontief Production Functions

Energy Economics

1982
Electric Utility Capacity Expansion Planning with Uncertain Load Forecasts

Electric Utility Capacity Expansion Planning with Uncertain Load Forecasts

AIIE Transactions

1982
Modeling Natural Gas Regulatory Proposals Using the Project Independence Evaluation System

Modeling Natural Gas Regulatory Proposals Using the Project Independence Evaluation System

Operations Research

1981
Modeling the National Energy Plan

Modeling the National Energy Plan

Operational Research Quarterly

1980
Sensitivity Analysis of the Costs in the Dynamic Lot Size Model

Sensitivity Analysis of the Costs in the Dynamic Lot Size Model

AIIE Transactions

1979
Multiproduct Lot‑Size Scheduling with Proportional Product Demands

Multiproduct Lot‑Size Scheduling with Proportional Product Demands

Naval Research Logistics Quarterly

1979
A Mathematical Programming Approach to the Scheduling of Check Sorting Operations

A Mathematical Programming Approach to the Scheduling of Check Sorting Operations

Naval Research Logistics Quarterly

1978
A Dynamic Programming Algorithm for Check Sorting

A Dynamic Programming Algorithm for Check Sorting

Management Science

1977
Improved Convergence Rate Results for a Class of Exponential Penalty Functions

Improved Convergence Rate Results for a Class of Exponential Penalty Functions

Naval Research Logistics Quarterly

1976
A Class of Exponential Penalty Functions

A Class of Exponential Penalty Functions

S.I.A.M. Journal of Control

1974
On Measuring Economic Interrelatedness

On Measuring Economic Interrelatedness

Review of Economic Studies

1974
A Column Generation Algorithm for Nonlinear Programming

A Column Generation Algorithm for Nonlinear Programming

Mathematical Programming

1973
Column Dropping Procedures for the Generalized Programming Algorithm

Column Dropping Procedures for the Generalized Programming Algorithm

Management Science

1973

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