Anwar, Ahm Mehbub

  • Primary Program Transport and Infrastructure
  • Research Interests Urban sustainable mobility, Port activity, Alternative fuels and enerygy efficiency, Choice modeling, Future transport strategy at local and national level

Biography

Dr. AHM Mehbub Anwar is a fellow at KAPSARC. He currently leads the Energy Decision Model for Maritime, which results in research outcomes as well as advisory inputs for the energy ecosystem across the Kingdom. This project investigates future port activity including seaborne trade and fuel consumption in the shipping sector both locally and globally. He also works on the KAPSARC Spatial Urban Energy System (KSUES) project. Prior to joining KAPSARC, he worked in Transport for New South Wales (TfNSW), a state government organisation, as a transport planner, and at the University of Wollongong (UOW) in Australia as a researcher. He led the update on the state of transport in the TfNSW regions as part of the strategic planning for its Future Transport 2056. He has also worked as a lecturer at Khulna University of Bangladesh, and was later promoted to a professor in urban transport planning. He holds a Ph.D. with an examiners’ commendation for an outstanding thesis from the UOW. His thesis focused on modeling travellers’ preference heterogeneity.

Publications

See all Ahm Mehbub’s publications
  • Book/book chapter
  • Discussion papers
  • Methodology papers
  • Report
  • Data Insights
  • Commentaries
  • KAPSARC journal articles
  • Think20 (T20)
Smart Transportation Systems in Smart Cities: Practices, Challenges, and Opportunities for Saudi Cities

Smart Transportation Systems in Smart Cities: Practices, Challenges, and Opportunities for Saudi Cities

Smart transportation is an approach that incorporates modern technologies into transportation systems to improve the efficiency of urban mobility. Cities worldwide call digital technologies to harness their development to address potential challenges and concerns, which provoke technology-driven practices in urban context. Big data and technologies now offer tools, techniques, and information that can improve how cities function. Consequently, urban process and practices are becoming highly responsive to a form of technology-driven urbanism, that is the key mode of production for smart urban development. This furnishes the prospect of building models of smart sustainable cities performing in real time from routinely available data. This in turn allows to monitor, understand, analyze, and plan such cities to improve their urban efficiency and promotes new urban intelligence functions as an advanced form of decision support. Although technology-driven approach to transport analysis and management is emerging as smart city principle, the application is limited in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). This chapter investigates the potentials and the role of technology-driven solutions in improving and advancing urban transport management in the context of smart cities. It also explores the relevant practices as well as potentials in smart urban development context for Saudi cities. Our approach of technology-driven urban management will envision cities as a complex social and technological ecosystem and build on lessons learned from the research at city level and conceptualizes actors and institutions in a technology-driven urban management for Saudi cities toward achieving liveable smart city.   Read Book Chapter

1st October 2023
Future Seaborne Exports and Their Impacts on Bunker Energy Demand: An Estimation of Saudi Container Seaports

Future Seaborne Exports and Their Impacts on Bunker Energy Demand: An Estimation of Saudi Container Seaports

Seaports are crucial for facilitating maritime trade and integrating countries into the global economy. Understanding port business dynamics, including trade and the impact on bunker energy demand, is essential for a nation’s competitiveness. Saudi Arabia’s ports are strategically situated at an advantageous location that connects Asia, Africa, and Europe. It is important to study current and future trade and investigate their implications for bunker energy demand. This study used data covering the period from 1991 to 2021 and employed a fixed effects linear model with an autoregressive disturbance to estimate outliers and detect breaks to estimate the compound annual growth rates (CAGRs) of exports. The results provide a rough estimation of future exports from Saudi container ports and the corresponding bunker energy demand up to 2040. We used energy intensity figures and the average export distance between Saudi Arabia and its trading partners for energy estimation. As of 2021, the estimated energy demand was about 28,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (Kboe/d). Using 2021 as the baseline year, bunker energy demand is expected to increase to 45 Kboe/d by 2040 under the medium growth scenario, with Jeddah and King Abdullah Port (KAP) accounting for approximately 61% of the total demand.

22nd May 2025
Analyzing the Interplay of Urbanization, Economic Development, and Seaborne Trade A Case of Saudi Arabia

Analyzing the Interplay of Urbanization, Economic Development, and Seaborne Trade A Case of Saudi Arabia

Urbanization is widely recognized as a critical factor influencing economic growth and global trade, yet there is ongoing debate about whether it drives these outcomes or is a consequence of them. To address this, it is essential to determine whether urbanization spurs economic development and trade, or if these processes influence urbanization, or if the relationship is one of mutual causality. This study investigates the interplay between urbanization, economic development, and trade in both the short and the long term. Using data from Saudi Arabia spanning from 1991 to 2022, the research employs cointegration and Granger causality tests to first determine the order of integration of the variables, and it then applies the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and the Error Correction Model (ECM) to examine causal relationships over different time horizons. The results reveal a bidirectional causality between urbanization and economic development in both the short and the long terms. In contrast, while there is bidirectional causality between trade and economic development in the short term, the long-term analysis indicates a unidirectional causality from trade to economic development. This suggests that trade influences economic development, which in turn affects urbanization, with no direct causality found between trade and urbanization.

18th December 2024
Enabling Net-Zero Shipping An Expert Review-Based Agenda for Emerging Techno-Economic and Policy Research

Enabling Net-Zero Shipping An Expert Review-Based Agenda for Emerging Techno-Economic and Policy Research

Net-zero shipping is emerging as a global priority, underscored by the shipping sector’s increasing projected contribution to climate change, making it critical to understand the emerging associated research priorities. We outline key techno-economic and policy research priorities for achieving effective and equitable net-zero shipping. We translate contemporary media issues to techno-economic and policy research priorities, corroborating the identified priorities through the academic literature, and consulting an array of maritime experts in the fields of policy, technology, fuel, and infrastructure.

14th October 2024
Modeling Factors Affecting the Choice to Use the Proposed Riyadh Metro System

Modeling Factors Affecting the Choice to Use the Proposed Riyadh Metro System

The Riyadh metro system is being implemented as a sustainable transport option that will offer reliable, affordable and comfortable urban mobility. It is important to understand the factors influencing the likelihood that people will use the new metro system. Thus, this study’s key objective is to investigate the underlying factors that drive people to use the metro instead of their current transport modes.

11th May 2023
Approach and Initial Findings in Modeling Future Seaborne Trade and Its Impact on Energy Demand

Approach and Initial Findings in Modeling Future Seaborne Trade and Its Impact on Energy Demand

International shipping contributes approximately 3% of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, prompting the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to aim for net-zero shipping greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050 to mitigate climate change. Shipping is a critical link between countries for transporting goods, and its future advancements will hinge primarily on customer demand for goods and regional growth trends. This study has a dual objective. First, this work seeks to establish a methodological framework for forecasting the trajectory of future global trade. Second, it aims to utilize the estimated future seaborne trade to understand the impact on energy demand in the shipping sector across three scenarios.

26th November 2024
Urban Transport Energy Demand Model for Riyadh: Methodology and Preliminary Analysis

Urban Transport Energy Demand Model for Riyadh: Methodology and Preliminary Analysis

Saudi Arabia intends to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 278 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent annually by 2030, according to its Nationally Determined Contribution to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Among many policies it is introducing, a mass transit system and transit-oriented development are being advanced with the expectation of reducing energy consumption and GHG emissions in Riyadh. To what extent such an initiative can reduce energy consumption and GHG emissions is an important question. In this paper, a methodology is developed to systematically measure the impact of mass transit and transit-oriented development in Riyadh on energy demand.

13th June 2023
Expert Survey Assessment of Emerging Maritime Decarbonization Challenges and Priorities

Expert Survey Assessment of Emerging Maritime Decarbonization Challenges and Priorities

The decarbonization of the maritime sector has emerged as a global concern due to the shipping sector’s 3% contribution to world’s total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Notably, the latest developments involving the adoption of more ambitious GHG reduction targets by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) highlight the increasing urgency to address maritime decarbonization. The revised IMO strategy includes indicative checkpoints and intermediary targets, aiming at emission reductions of at least 20% by 2030 and at least 70% by 2040 and reaching net-zero emissions “by or around 2050 (Carbon Pulse 2023). As nations strive to meet such commitments, it becomes crucial to comprehend the latest challenges associated with decarbonizing the maritime sector. Using an expert survey, we seek to identify the key priorities for achieving effective and equitable decarbonization by engaging a diverse group of maritime fuel, policy, technology, and infrastructure experts to gain valuable insights into the industry’s most pressing challenges.

14th September 2023
Current and Future Trends in Saudi Arabia’s Container Throughput

Current and Future Trends in Saudi Arabia’s Container Throughput

The maritime sector is a key pillar for the diversification of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s economy, and it has been prioritised by the Saudi government due to its strategic importance. Saudi Vision 2030 has set a target for making KSA a global logistics hub. Correspondingly, the Kingdom has been investing heavily in its seaports to modernize their infrastructure and increase their capacity. For instance, several projects are now underway to boost the maritime transport sector, costing around 6 billion Saudi Arabian riyals (SAR) (USD $1.6 billion).

25th May 2022
Stated Preferences of Metro Use by Current Mode Choices in Riyadh

Stated Preferences of Metro Use by Current Mode Choices in Riyadh

Based on the current use of mode, people show different preferences for modal shift. This Data Insight presents the most important metro options (based on fare, travel time, walking time and waiting time of the metro) as stated by the respondents.

7th February 2021
Fueling the Transition in the Maritime Sector: What Are the Current Status and Path Ahead?

Fueling the Transition in the Maritime Sector: What Are the Current Status and Path Ahead?

The continued demand for global seaborne trade is estimated to have accounted for 85.9% of world trade in 2023, with demand reaching 12 billion tons. As with the growth in demand, the continued growth in CO₂ emissions from global shipping, which currently contributes an estimated 2.19%, equivalent to 837.7 million tons (mt) of the total CO₂ emission output and an estimated 3% of worldwide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, has led to a push toward increased measures to limit emissions since the sector is projected to contribute approximately 10%-13% of global GHG emissions in the future if no action is taken to decarbonize the sector.

10th March 2024
IMO GHG Emission Reduction Strategy: Insight into the Alignment of Saudi Arabia’s Efforts at Maritime Decarbonization

IMO GHG Emission Reduction Strategy: Insight into the Alignment of Saudi Arabia’s Efforts at Maritime Decarbonization

On July 7, 2023, member states of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) met in London, UK, at the 80th session of the Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC 80), where they adopted a revised strategy to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from international shipping (KSA IMO 2023c). The initial GHG emission strategy was adopted in 2018 during the MEPC 72, and since then, the decision to adopt a revised strategy to reduce GHG emissions from shipping has been a work in progress. During the MEPC 77 in 2021, this decision appeared very important, and IMO member states agreed to a revision of the initially proposed IMO GHG Strategy as part of an effort to accelerate the uptake of climate targets highlighted at the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP 26) in Glasgow in 2021.

22nd January 2024
Trend in Eurasia’s Seaborne Trade and Vessel Capacity Between 2013 and 2021

Trend in Eurasia’s Seaborne Trade and Vessel Capacity Between 2013 and 2021

International trade between countries and across regions has existed for centuries. Moreover, international trade saw a significant increase in its growth from 1950 to 2000, with trade volume growing at an average rate of 6% per year. The concept of trade comprises both exporting and importing, and the growth of international trade is influenced by various factors, with economic growth playing a significant role, as has been the subject of much scholarly research.

9th January 2024
Future Fuel Demand From the Saudi Shipping Sector: A Business-as-Usual Estimation

Future Fuel Demand From the Saudi Shipping Sector: A Business-as-Usual Estimation

The purpose of this commentary is to suggest a rough estimation of future exports and corresponding fuel consumption of the Saudi shipping sector up to 2040. For estimation purposes, we use two assumptions: A global average energy intensity of 0.078 megajoules per tonne-kilometers (MJ/tonne-km). An average export distance of 5,441 nautical miles (nm) between Saudi Arabia and export trading partner countries.

21st August 2023
Saudi Arabia’s Potential to Further Hydrogen Use in the Maritime Sector

Saudi Arabia’s Potential to Further Hydrogen Use in the Maritime Sector

The United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP 26) in Glasgow focussed on advancing low-carbon fuels to reach emissions abatement targets. The conference also reaffirmed the goals of the Paris Agreement: to secure global net-zero emissions by mid-century and limit the global temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.  

21st March 2023
Understanding the Trajectory of Urban and Transport Development in Riyadh

Understanding the Trajectory of Urban and Transport Development in Riyadh

Riyadh has been a car-oriented city since the 1950s, a trend that was compounded by the economic boom of the 1970s. Likewise, the first master plan of Riyadh, a highway-based plan prepared by Doxiadis Associates International in 1973, encouraged the continued use of private cars.

16th October 2022
Understanding the Willingness to Make the Modal Shift to the New Metro in Riyadh

Understanding the Willingness to Make the Modal Shift to the New Metro in Riyadh

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia’s capital and main financial hub, is currently facing substantial urban growth pressures. The city suffers from serious traffic congestion, especially at peak hours. Owing to the city’s high level of urbanization, travel demands are expected to increase. This demand cannot be met through car-based infrastructure development alone. Therefore, the Saudi government has introduced a proposal for a new metro rail system in the city.

27th March 2022

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