Primary Program Markets and Industrial Development
Research Interests Natural Gas and Hydrogen

Biography

Rami Shabaneh is a senior research associate with a focus on global gas and hydrogen markets. Rami has nearly 15 years of research and industry experience analyzing energy markets and energy policy. Before joining KAPSARC, Rami worked at Cenovus Energy as a market fundamentals analyst, providing analytic support on specific issues affecting North American gas, natural gas liquids and condensate markets. His work informed the company’s hedging strategies. Before working at Cenovus Energy, Rami spent three years as a research economist at the Canadian Energy Research Institute. He holds a B.Sc. in actuarial science and an M.Sc. in sustainable energy development from the University of Calgary.

Publications

See all Rami’s publications

The Future of Gas in the Gulf: Continuity and Change

This book provides an update the development of natural gas in the Gulf countries nearly ten years after the publication of the OIES Gas Programme book on Natural Gas Markets in the Middle East and North Africa. The book comprises in-depth studies of a smaller set of countries, but those of critical regional and international importance to the future of gas: Qatar, Iran, Oman, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq and Bahrain. Over the past decade, Gulf gas production and demand have expanded rapidly, and the next decade is likely to see further major expansions. The only substantial increase in LNG exports in the 2010s was from Qatar and a smaller, but still very significant, increase is planned for the 2020s. This book finds that the Gulf will play a substantial role in the expansion of global gas supply and demand at least until 2030, and probably beyond, and will therefore remain an extremely important region for gas and energy researchers over the next decade. https://www.oxfordenergy.org/shop/the-future-of-gas-in-the-gulf-continuity-and-change/?v=3dd6b9265ff1

15th June 2019

Economic Analysis of Gas Pipeline Trade Cooperation: A GCC case study

Natural gas development across the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) — including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain —has become a priority for achieving long-term energy security and for supporting economic diversification initiatives (Shabaneh et al. 2020).

23rd March 2021

Can Oil Refiners Adjust to a Greater Supply of Shale Oil?

The advent of American shale oil and its prospects for continued production growth have raised concerns about whether oil refineries can handle the increasingly lighter crude oil supply. To provide a perspective on this issue, we run a global oil refining model for the years from 2017 to 2030. The model’s objective is to maximize refining industry profits in eight global regions, taking into account around 100 grades of crude oil.

6th January 2021

Viability of Seasonal Natural Gas Storage in the Saudi Energy System

Saudi Arabia expects to double its natural gas production within the next decade. This increased domestic supply is expected to meet the demand for gas from Saudi Arabia’s industrial development and, most importantly, to displace liquid fuels in its electricity sector. Given the strong seasonal variability of the latter, underground gas storage (UGS) can help ensure the availability of gas to meet peak power load.

8th December 2019

Assessing Politics in Market Projections-Restarting Japanese Nuclear Reactors and Global Gas Markets

This paper explores the value of explicitly integrating the modeling of political concerns into a model of energy market projections. This is achieved by assessing the impact on global gas markets of political constraints on restarting Japanese nuclear reactors. The 2018 KAPSARC discussion paper cited above utilized the KAPSARC Toolkit for Behavioral Analysis (KTAB) to determine the political will for such a policy decision.

27th October 2019

Assessing Energy Policy Instruments: LNG Imports Into Saudi Arabia

Natural gas is already playing a prominent role in diversifying Saudi Arabia’s power mix away from a heavy reliance on oil-based fuels. Between 2010 and 2017, the share of natural gas used in power generation in Saudi Arabia grew from 44% to 54%. The country’s gas fields are being developed to increase domestic gas supplies. However, imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) could remedy the near-term scarcity of gas from domestic sources and provide the support needed to integrate more renewable and other alternative sources of energy into the country’s power mix. Developments in global gas markets in recent years, including procurement and technological innovations in LNG, have unlocked value for producers and consumers.

2nd September 2019

Assessing the Impact of Natural Gas on Natural Gas Liquids: Policy Challenges and Imperatives

The supply growth of natural gas liquids (NGLs) globally within the last decade is unprecedented. The future global demand growth for NGLs is expected to be strong in areas where relevant industries are garnering robust investment and policymakers support the use of NGLs. However, NGLs are hostage to the fate of natural gas markets, as their production is largely tied to the future production of natural gas. Competition from cheaper coal, calls to rein in carbon emissions from fossil energy, and the rapidly declining costs of renewable technologies imply that natural gas has to fight for its place in the future fuel mix. NGLs may present a silver lining to the future of natural gas, given their close links. The power sector is usually considered the principal driver of future demand growth. However, natural gas is likely to have a bigger role to play in future, given the essential role of NGLs in displacing polluting fuels for cooking and heating, as a feedstock for petrochemical plants that produce thousands of consumer goods.

15th November 2018

Potential Effects of Trade Liberalization on China’s Imports of Plastics From the GCC

Petrochemical products, particularly plastics, contribute to a significant share of expanding and increasingly diverse trade flows between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and China. The petrochemical sector could benefit from a preferential bilateral trade regime between China and the GCC, but has been a bone of contention in the GCC-China Free Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiation process. This study applies a dual-stage model of import demand functions to estimate the impact of trade liberalization scenarios, within an FTA framework, on China’s imports of major plastics from the GCC and the rest of the world. It assesses the implications of these scenarios for all parties.

4th June 2018

Identifying the Roadblocks for Energy Access: A Case Study for Eastern Africa’s Gas

Natural gas resources in Tanzania and Mozambique have emerged as a new source of gas supply. While they are poised for export to global gas markets, they can also provide a key source of energy to the rest of Eastern Africa (defined in this paper to include Burundi, Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Rwanda, South Africa, Tanzania, and Uganda), where millions of inhabitants are currently living without access to electricity and clean cooking. Natural gas could also potentially be a driver for industrialization and economic growth. But before delving into the potential gas demand and opportunities for gas utilization in the region, it is important to take a step back to analyze the current energy picture in Eastern Africa and look into the social and development plans in place in the region. Despite large natural resource potential across the region of Eastern Africa (except South Africa), low electricity access and energy access rates have hampered economic growth and increased dependency on traditional biomass. This scoping study investigates energy access issues in the residential, industrial and transport sectors.

20th May 2018

The Impact of Low Oil and Gas Prices on Gas Markets: A Retrospective Look at 2014-15

In the past year, global gas prices have dropped significantly, albeit at unequal paces depending on the region. All else being equal, economists would suggest that this should have generated a positive demand response. However, “all else” was not equal. Prices of other commodities also declined while economic growth forecasts were downgraded.

3rd May 2016

Crude Oil and Refined Products

The power sector in Saudi Arabia makes up just over half of the natural gas demand in the Kingdom, followed by the industrial sector and non-energy use as a feedstock for petrochemicals.

6th April 2020

Fuel Mix for Power Generation and Water Desalination in Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia’s fuel mix for power generation and water desalination comprises natural gas (57%) and a suite of liquid fuels (43%). Liquid fuels include crude oil, heavy fuel oil (HFO), and diesel.

11th February 2020

World’s First Blue Ammonia Shipment Signals Prospective New Low-Carbon Energy Trade for Saudi Arabia

On September 27, 2020, Saudi Aramco successfully exported the world’s first shipment of carbon-neutral ammonia to Japan, helping to fuel the nascent Japanese hydrogen economy. This pilot shipment of 40 tonnes is an important realization of the hydrogen economy for both the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Japan. It also signals a potentially important addition to the Kingdom’s export commodity portfolio.

26th November 2020

The Prospect of Unconventional Gas Development in Saudi Arabia

In February 2020, Saudi Aramco announced that it obtained regulatory approval to develop the Jafurah Basin, Saudi Arabia’s largest unconventional natural gas field (Figure 1). Situated east of the giant Ghawar oilfield, it contains 200 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of gas resources.

19th April 2020

U.S.-Iran Tensions and the Waiver Renewal for Iranian Gas Exports to Iraq

Following the assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad on January 3, as a result of a United States (U.S.) airstrike, the Iraqi Parliament passed a resolution stating that it “must work to end the presence of any foreign troops on Iraqi soil and prohibit them from using its land, airspace or water for any reason.”

30th January 2020

Implications of IMO 2020: The Potential for High Sulfur Fuel Oil Penetration in Saudi Arabia

January 1, 2020 marks the enforcement of the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) rule on limiting sulfur emissions from ships (IMO 2020). The rule mandates ships to reduce the sulfur content in their fuels to 0.5% from the current 3.5%. This suggests that ship owners and operators need to replace about 3 million barrels per day (MMb/d) of heavy fuel oil (HFO) with high sulfur content – known as high sulfur fuel oil (HSFO).

12th December 2019

India’s Push to Renegotiate Long-Term LNG Contracts

On August 26, 2019, India’s petroleum minister Dharmendra Pradhan announced that he would consider “a review of liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices under [India’s] long-term contracts”. However, Mr. Pradhan did not lay out a timeline for the review and reiterated that existing contracts would be honored.

8th December 2019

Saudi Arabia’s Clean Hydrogen Ambitions: Opportunities and Challenges

Saudi Arabia is a prime example of a country with an immense potential for clean hydrogen, i.e., hydrogen derived from a production process in which carbon emissions into the atmosphere are avoided, mitigated, or captured and stored. Fully leveraging clean hydrogen to sustainably power the global economy would give the Kingdom a competitive edge in an increasingly carbon-constrained world in which net-zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are both a requirement and a condition for survival. Therefore, this commentary analyzes the opportunities and challenges facing Saudi Arabia as it aims to become a frontrunner in the nascent global clean hydrogen market.

30th June 2021

Can Cooperation Enhance Natural Gas Utilization in the GCC?

The last decade saw dramatic changes in the energy sector, including the shale oil and gas boom in the United States (U.S.), a commodity down-cycle, and heightened awareness of the global climate challenge. In response, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member countries launched economic reforms to diversify government revenues away from hydrocarbon exports and restructure domestic energy prices to manage rapidly rising energy demand.

12th October 2020

Natural Gas Strategies for the Saudi Energy System

Fuel prices in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia have historically been below international market values. This has stimulated rapid growth in primary energy demand. The Kingdom’s natural gas demand has now outstripped its domestic production, forcing the government to impose rations on consuming sectors, and raising expectations that natural gas production and prices in Saudi Arabia will increase over the next decade.

13th January 2020

Aramco’s LNG strategy: Opportunities and Options

Saudi Arabia has taken a major step into global gas markets with Saudi Aramco signing a heads of agreement (HoA) with Sempra Energy. The HoA includes a 20-year sales and purchase agreement (SPA) for 5 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from phase 1 of the proposed Port Arthur LNG project in Texas. The agreement also includes a possible 25% equity stake from Aramco in the project.

4th December 2019

Viability of Seasonal Natural Gas Storage in the Saudi Energy System

Science Direct

2020

Assisting Energy Policy Instruments: LNG Imports into Saudi Arabia

Science Direct

2019

Economic Impacts of the Petroleum Industry in Canada

Canadian Energy Research Institute

2009

Comparative Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of Base Load Electricity Generation in Ontario

Canadian Energy Research Institute

2008

Related workshops

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23 Jun

Opportunities for Gas Trade and Infrastructure…

Co-hosted With Khalifa University and International Association for Energy Economics (IAEE) Natural gas has been instrumental in meeting growing power demand in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and establishing industrial bases that have contributed to their economic growth. Within the last decade, regional gas demand has grown by 100 billion cubic meters (bcm), placing GCC […]

09 Jul

The Path Towards a Hydrogen Economy:…

Co-hosted With Clingendael International Energy Programme (CIEP) Hydrogen is a potential solution in reaching climate goals and decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors like industry, buildings, and heavy-duty transport. It is also currently perceived as an energy vector: one that facilitates energy storage and can be used in the production of synthetic fuels. This makes it an essential component […]

12 Oct

Global Gas Security Review and Gas…

The Global Gas Security Review is the IEA’s annual flagship publication on gas supply security, which provides a quantitative assessment of contracting trends, supply flexibility, buyer and seller behavior, and the evolution of global LNG trade. This year’s review (for the first time) will be complemented with an update of the IEA’s global gas market […]

Rami Shabaneh

Senior Research Associate

Economic Impacts of the Petroleum Industry in Canada

Comparative Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of Base Load Electricity Generation in Ontario

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