Various explanations have been proposed for the recent slowdown in the growth of global plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) sales. Considerable uncertainty also remains regarding future PEV adoption rates due to evolving consumer incentives and newly announced Western tariffs on Chinese PEV imports. This study offers an expert opinion-based perspective on how the PEV landscape may evolve amid ongoing policy and market shifts. Specifically, we survey PEV experts in the U.S., Germany, and China to explore (i) the reasons behind Western tariffs; (ii) the potential strategic responses of Chinese and Western policymakers and automakers; and (iii) how the PEV market might evolve in the coming years in light of the global landscape. The surveyed experts attribute the recent slowdown in global PEV sales growth to technological factors and a consumer preference for hybrids. They view Chinese automakers’ expansion into Western PEV markets as primarily driven by profit and market share considerations, rather than domestic factors. Experts anticipate that the tariffs will moderately reduce the price competitiveness of Chinese PEVs in the West and that China will likely seek ways to circumvent these tariffs. Additionally, they believe that China’s response will likely include tariffs on non-vehicle goods and restrictions on partnerships within China. Rather than trade policies, experts identify the changing stringency of existing emissions regulations as the main non-technological factor expected to influence global and regional PEV sales shares over the next three to five years. We find evidence of variation in expert opinions based on their region of focus (China vs. U.S./Germany) and their role (strategic vs. technical).
