China’s rapid shift toward electric vehicles (EVs), especially in the heavy-duty trucking sector, is reshaping its oil consumption landscape. While the initial wave of electrification primarily impacted gasoline demand through widespread adoption of light-duty EVs, recent momentum in medium- and heavy-duty electric trucks is increasingly affecting diesel consumption. This shift is reinforced by favorable government incentives, growing competition from liquefied natural gas (LNG), and declining diesel use in sectors like real estate construction.
Sales of new energy trucks surged in early 2025, with heavy-duty electric trucks accounting for a quarter of all new truck sales in the first half of the year. Forecasts by organizations like SCI, OPEC, and the IEA have already revised China’s oil demand projections downward. At the same time, electrification is placing mounting pressure on the country’s power grid. In 2024 alone, EVs consumed the equivalent of the annual output of 13–14 nuclear power plants.
With electric trucks consuming far more electricity per charge than passenger EVs, power infrastructure challenges are expected to intensify. While technologies like battery swapping are mitigating some barriers, the scale and speed of China’s transition require urgent upgrades to electricity generation and grid capacity, posing both energy security and infrastructure planning challenges.
