This study examines the long-term impacts of climate change on thermal comfort, energy demand, and household electricity expenditure in Saudi Arabia using a scenario-based modeling approach. The analysis is conducted by utilizing a multi-sector integrated assessment model (IAM) for Saudi Arabia (GCAM-KSA), which integrates regionally updated Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results indicate an increase in cooling degree days (CDD) and a corresponding decline in heating degree days (HDD) across all scenarios, leading to an 80% increase in national cooling service demand by 2100. These changes drive growth in building electricity consumption of up to 20% due to climate impacts alone, and increase household electricity expenditures by 8% to 33%, depending on the scenario. We explain these results in terms of the basic drivers linking regional climate to energy demand, highlighting that under the low-emissions RCP2.6 pathway, which reflects Saudi Arabia’s net-zero target by 2060, increased expenditures are primarily driven by enhanced access to services and rising living standards rather than higher energy costs.
