This study examines how leveraging upstream carbon intensities as a policy lever could reshape crude oil market dynamics, competitiveness, and asset stranding under net-zero pathways. Using GCAM-KSA with harmonised, field-level CI data, we simulate scenarios with uniform and heterogeneous CI across Baseline, NetZero_Delayed, and NetZero_Early pathways. While overall global production remains similar, CI differentiation strongly influences market shares and stranding risks. Low-CI producers, such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, consolidate residual demand, whereas high-CI exporters in Canada’s oil sands, Venezuela, West Africa, and parts of the Middle East face accelerated declines and stranded assets. These findings highlight the importance of CI-based benchmarks, border rules, and disclosure to align investment and trade with climate goals.
