Abstract

he relatively short atmospheric lifetimes of methane (CH4) and black carbon (BC) have focused attention on the potential for reducing anthropogenic climate change by reducing Short-Lived Climate Forcer (SLCF) emissions. This paper examines radiative forcing and global mean temperature results from the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 multi-model suite of scenarios addressing CH4 and BC mitigation, the two major short-lived climate forcers. Central estimates of temperature reductions in 2040 from an idealized scenario focused on reductions in methane and black carbon emissions ranged from 0.18–0.26 °C across the nine participating models. Reductions in methane emissions drive 60% or more of these temperature reductions by 2040, although the methane impact also depends on auxiliary reductions that depend on the economic structure of the model.

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Kenichi Wada
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Joeri Rogelj
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Kalyn Dorheim
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Maria Cecilia P. Moura
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Tatsuya Hanaoka
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Gunnar Luderer
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Steven J. Smith
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Shinichiro Fujimori
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Kimon Keramidas
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Fuminori Sano
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Zbigniew Klimont
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Keywan Riahi
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Laurent Drouet
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Detlef P. van Vuuren
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Jérôme Hilaire
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Oliver Fricko
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Mathijs Harmsen
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Jean Chateau
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Durand-Lasserve, Olivier
Energy Macro & Microeconomics
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