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- Impact of Methane and Black Carbon Mitigation on Forcing and Temperature: A Multi-model Scenario Analysis
Abstract
he relatively short atmospheric lifetimes of methane (CH4) and black carbon (BC) have focused attention on the potential for reducing anthropogenic climate change by reducing Short-Lived Climate Forcer (SLCF) emissions. This paper examines radiative forcing and global mean temperature results from the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 multi-model suite of scenarios addressing CH4 and BC mitigation, the two major short-lived climate forcers. Central estimates of temperature reductions in 2040 from an idealized scenario focused on reductions in methane and black carbon emissions ranged from 0.18–0.26 °C across the nine participating models. Reductions in methane emissions drive 60% or more of these temperature reductions by 2040, although the methane impact also depends on auxiliary reductions that depend on the economic structure of the model.
Meet the authors

Kenichi Wada

Joeri Rogelj

Kalyn Dorheim

Maria Cecilia P. Moura

Tatsuya Hanaoka

Gunnar Luderer

Steven J. Smith

Shinichiro Fujimori

Kimon Keramidas

Fuminori Sano

Zbigniew Klimont

Keywan Riahi

Laurent Drouet

Detlef P. van Vuuren

Jérôme Hilaire

Oliver Fricko

Mathijs Harmsen

Jean Chateau

Durand-Lasserve, Olivier
Principal Fellow- Energy Macro & Microeconomics