Despite global efforts to expand energy access, substantial disparities persist, with basic residential energy services remaining unavailable to large populations, particularly those contributing minimally to emissions yet experiencing heightened climate vulnerability. Using harmonized panel data spanning 186 countries from 1990 to 2023, we examine disparities in residential energy consumption and delineate their association with income and access indicators. Our analysis demonstrates a nearly seventyfold variation in annual household energy use – from below 0.15 MWh per capita in parts of sub-Saharan Africa to over 10 MWh in North America and Scandinavia – compared to a global median of 2.32 MWh. Household energy consumption closely tracks income, increasing at an elasticity of 0.70 ± 0.02 until reaching a plateau around a GDP per capita of approximately $70,000 (constant 2015 U.S. dollars), consistent with Engel-curve saturation as fundamental needs are fulfilled. Emerging economies, identified here as a “near-median belt” (including Mexico, Brazil, and Indonesia), show strong potential for accelerated demand growth, while sub-Saharan Africa remains predominantly within a “deep-deficit cluster” below 0.6 MWh per capita. Modest economic or tariff adjustments could shift hundreds of millions into higher-demand categories, highlighting a critical but currently underrepresented phenomenon in mainstream energy and climate models. Recognizing these threshold dynamics calls for differentiated policy responses: in deep-deficit contexts (below 0.6 MWh per capita), absolute energy provision is necessary to meet minimum service thresholds; in saturated settings (above 8 MWh per capita), targeted efficiency measures can reduce excess use without compromising welfare; and where affordability risks remain poorly quantified, interventions should be based on local empirical evidence rather than generalized assumptions. Integrating empirically validated minimum energy thresholds into multilateral investment support would anchor vulnerability assessments in energy deprivation and help direct support where it is most needed.
