This study employs advanced econometric modeling to generate short-term projections of regional economic activity (gross value added, or GVA) in Saudi Arabia, focusing on the Eastern Province, which is the largest in terms of economic activity in the Kingdom. A combined forecasting framework of three models predicts that GVA in the Eastern Province grows by 4.4% in the third quarter (Q3) and 2.3% in the fourth quarter (Q4) relative to the second quarter (Q2) of 2024. This growth trajectory results in an annual GVA of 1,097 billion SAR in 2024 (in 2018 chained prices). In 2025, the Eastern Province’s annual GVA is projected to soften slightly to 1,076 billion SAR. This is primarily driven by real oil price dynamics, given the Eastern Province’s central role in the Kingdom’s oil and gas industry; however, an exogenous projection of a 21% drop in real oil prices leads to only a 1.9% reduction in GVA. The adopted framework and short-term projections offer valuable tools for subnational fiscal planning, monitoring regional economic convergence, and informing targeted policy interventions in contexts where official data remain sparse. As ex-post data become available in the future, the predictive performance of the framework can be evaluated and refined accordingly.
