Saudi Arabia’s rapidly growing cooling demand, driven by harsh climatic conditions, urban expansion, and rising living standards, places increasing strain on the national electricity grid and contributes to higher carbon emissions. This study evaluates the technical, economic, and environmental feasibility of shallow geothermal cooling using ground source heat pumps (GSHPs) as a high-efficiency alternative to conventional air-based heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems in the Kingdom. Drawing on field data, thermal response tests, aquifer pumping trials, and detailed techno-economic modeling, the analysis develops a standardized evaluation framework and applies it to representative case studies on the Eastern and Western coasts. Results show that geothermal systems consistently achieve seasonal coefficients of performance (SCOP) near 5.0, almost double those of conventional HVAC systems, reducing electricity consumption by 40%-50% and significantly lowering CO2 emissions. Regional extrapolation using measured performance and building-stock electricity profiles indicates that achieving a 40% penetration rate across commercial and governmental facilities could reduce national electricity demand by approximately 7-9 terawatt-hours (TWh) annually, avoid 3-7 million metric tons (Mt) of CO2 emissions, and defer substantial grid-capacity investments.
