This study quantifies the impact of a warming climate on residential cooling demand in Saudi Arabia, examining four regions through 2060. Utilizing region-specific electricity demand models and IPCC temperature pathways, we find that a 1°C increase in average temperature could raise electricity consumption for cooling by 12.9% in the Western region, 10.3% in the Southern region, 8.3% in the Central region, and 4.8% in the Eastern region, based on data from 1990 to 2018. Under the high-emission SSP5 – Fossil-Fueled Development (Taking the Highway) pathway (high-emissions scenario), cooling-related electricity use in 2060 is projected to be nearly 20 TWh higher than under the SSP2 – Middle of the Road baseline. By contrast, the SSP1 – Sustainability (Taking the Green Road) scenario could reduce consumption by about 8 TWh. These findings underscore the strain that rising temperatures place on households and utilities, leading to higher bills and greater infrastructure demands.
