This paper investigates the role of state ownership in oil and gas production after the Paris Agreement, comparing national oil companies (NOCs) with international oil companies (IOCs). Using firm-level panel data spanning from 2010 to 2021 in a difference-in-differences setting, it was found that IOCs increased their oil production by approximately 30%-35% relative to NOCs in the post-Paris era. This gap has been driven by the declining oil production from NOCs outside the OPEC+ bloc and the rising oil output from IOCs, suggesting that rising oil demand has been fulfilled by IOCs. These production trends are partly driven by long-term structural differences and market dynamics, rather than being a direct consequence of the Paris Agreement. In contrast to the oil market, no significant divergence is observed in gas production because NOCs and IOCs uniformly expanded their output, highlighting the role of natural gas as a transitional fuel. These findings underscore the necessity of considering corporate ownership structures and their unique market incentives in global climate governance and energy transition.
