This study investigates the effects of oil price changes on the non-oil trade balance in four major OPEC economies – the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), Kuwait, Nigeria, and Venezuela – over the period 1982-2022. While oil revenues are a fundamental driver of economic activity in these countries, their impact on trade dynamics remains a critical policy concern. Additionally, the empirical literature shows that oil price increases and decreases might have unequal magnitude of effects on macroeconomic indicators, including the trade balance. This research explores whether rising and falling oil prices disproportionately affect non-oil trade balances in OPEC countries.

Senior Principal- Energy Macro & Microeconomics
Fakhri Hasanov is a senior principal and leads the KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model projects with 20+ years of experience…
Fakhri Hasanov is a senior principal and leads the KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model projects with 20+ years of experience in econometric modeling and forecasting. Since 2015, he has been involved in multistakeholder projects, leading and executing macroeconomic analysis of various policy choices and initiatives (e.g., energy prices, energy demand, and fiscal reforms) for the Kingdom’s economy. He has extensive experience working with policymakers. Prior to KAPSARC, he was a post-doc at George Washington University. His research mainly covers macro-econometric modeling for energy and environmental economics policy analyses. Dr. Hasanov has authored 50+ applied studies published in reputable journals such as Energy Policy, Energy Economics, Empirical Economics, and Energy Strategy Review. His research is recognized internationally (e.g., he is listed among the top 2% of scientists globally by Elsevier). Fakhri is an editorial board member of various peer-reviewed journals, such as Frontiers in Environmental Science. He holds a Ph.D. in econometrics.
Expertise
- Econometric modeling and forecasting
- Time series and panel data econometrics
- Macroeconometric models for policy analyses
- Energy economics
- Environmental economics.
Publications See all Fakhri Hasanov’s publications

Do Rising and Falling Oil Prices Affect Non-Oil Trade Balance Equally? Evidence from OPEC Countries
This study investigates the effects of oil price changes on the non-oil trade balance in…
22nd May 2025
Improving Predictive Ability of Macroeconometric Models Using Coefficient Averaging
This study investigates the effects of oil price changes on the non-oil trade balance in…
22nd May 2025