Saudi Arabia needs to decarbonize road freight transportation to fulfill its emission reduction commitments. In this study, we utilize the GCAM-KSA modeling framework to explore potential mitigation pathways for the Kingdom’s road freight sector. We evaluate the emission implications of several announced and potential decarbonization strategies, including the modal shift to electric freight rail, fuel efficiency improvements for heavy-duty vehicles (HDV), and the adoption of zero-emission vehicles. The results suggest that achieving an economy-wide net-zero target will require policy initiatives such as replacing trucks with electric freight rail, implementing fuel economy standards for heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs), adopting zero-emission vehicles, and introducing carbon taxes. In the economy-wide net-zero scenario, total land freight CO2 emissions will be reduced to 29.4 Mt by 2060. The adoption of higher carbon taxes not only curbs the overly fast growth of land freight activity, capping total land freight demand at 823 billion tkm, but also incentivizes further adoption of freight rail and zero-emissions vehicles. In 2060, rail and zero-emission vehicles (primarily battery electric vehicles – BEVs) are expected to account for 30.6% and 25.9% of total land freight activities, respectively, while internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles make up the remaining 43.5%. Low-carbon technologies (i.e., electricity and hydrogen) are expected to play an increasingly important role in the road freight decarbonization process, with their total demand projected to reach 56.8 TWh (electricity) and 77,549 tonnes (hydrogen), respectively, by 2060. Policymakers need to be aware of the energy and emission implications of the supply of these fuels on other energy sectors so that a coordinated decarbonization pathway across the Saudi economy can be achieved.
