China’s coal-to-olefins (CTO) development has been supported by energy security priorities, abundant domestic coal resources, advances in conversion technologies, and improvements in coal production and logistics. However, CTO remains significantly more carbon- and water-intensive than naphtha-to-olefins (NTO). Direct greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and freshwater consumption from CTO are estimated at 4.5-6.0 tCO2e and 16-30 tonnes per tonne of olefins, respectively, both around five times those of NTO. CTO is also considerably more capital-intensive, with capital investment of about US$4,985 per annual tonne of olefin capacity, compared with $1,528 for NTO. The economics look different, however, when focusing on cash costs, which exclude depreciation, amortization, and returns on capital.
