The 2026 closure of the Strait of Hormuz transformed a long-studied disruption scenario into an operational reality. In response, this paper uses the Freight Module of KAPSARC’s Integrated Transport and Energy-Demand Model to examine a full-year closure scenario based on 2025 freight demand and network conditions. It compares a Baseline with uninterrupted Hormuz operations against an Alternative imposing a 100% closure for 12 months. The model covers three trade-flow categories, five transport modes, and nine commodity groups.
