Publications

The Effects of Russian Sanctions on the Global Economy

Abdullah Aldayel, Jennifer Considine, Emre Hatipoglu, Colin Ward

On February 24, 2022, Russia began a ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine, which quickly escalated into a militarized conflict across multiple fronts. The act drew immediate disapproval from the United Nations and led most members of the Western alliance to…

Aldayel, Abdullah

Considine, Jennifer

Hatipoglu, Emre

Ward, Colin

Global Crude Oil Storage Index: A New Benchmark for Energy Policy

Jennifer Considine, Philipp Galkin, Abdullah Aldayel

The global oil market dwarfs other commodity markets. Its size and role in the energy and industrial value chains underscore its significant economic and geopolitical impacts. Thus, the consequences of oil price fluctuations extend far beyond the oil industry and…

Considine, Jennifer

Galkin, Philipp

Aldayel, Abdullah

Unintended Transnational Effects of Sanctions: A Global Vector Autoregression Simulation

Taylor & Francis

Emre Hatipoglu, Jennifer Considine, Abdullah Aldayel

Inventories and the Term Structure of Oil Prices: A Complex Relationship

Elsevier

Jennifer Considine, Abdullah Aldayel, Philipp Galkin

The Sensitivity of Oil Price Shocks to Preexisting Market Conditions: A GVAR Analysis

Science Direct

This study develops a Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model to simulate various types of shocks to oil markets and to see whether such shocks are time-sensitive in oil markets. Our model extends the canonical Mohaddes and Pesaran (2016) model temporally…

Jennifer Considine, Emre Hatipoglu, Abdullah Aldayel

Volatility, Contango, and Crude Oil Inventories: A Complex Relationship

Business School University of Colorado Denver

Jennifer Considine, Philipp Galkin, Abdullah Aldayel

Extreme Market Distortions Canadian Crude Oil Flows

Jennifer Considine, Philipp Galkin, Abdullah Aldayel

With extensive natural resources and strategic access to both the Atlantic and Pacific basins, Canada has the potential to become a global energy powerhouse – provided that the nation is successful in alleviating its infrastructure bottlenecks. According to the United…

Considine, Jennifer

Galkin, Philipp

Aldayel, Abdullah

Natural Gas Utilization in GCC Countries

Majed A. Al Suwailem, Abdullah Aldayel

Between 2009 and 2019, marketed gas production by Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members has grown at an average rate of 4.8% per annum, from 265 billion standard cubic meters in 2009 to 422 billion standard cubic meters (Bscm) in 2019.…

Al Suwailem, Majed A.

Aldayel, Abdullah

Balancing World Oil Markets and Understanding Contango and Inventories: The Changing Nature of World Oil Markets

Jennifer Considine, Abdullah Aldayel

The general theory of storage suggests that the level of inventories is a key factor in determining the structure of the oil futures curve, or the basis, over time. The basis is the difference between the price of oil in…

Considine, Jennifer

Aldayel, Abdullah

World Oil and Inventory Study: A Global VAR Analysis

Jennifer Considine, Abdullah Aldayel, Emre Hatipoglu

Despite numerous journal articles, forecasting studies, and books, very little is known about the actual quantitative value, or economic cost, of shocks to world oil markets. The potential consequences of a given political or economic disturbance are unclear, and appear…

Considine, Jennifer

Aldayel, Abdullah

Hatipoglu, Emre

Crude Oil Reserves Metrics of GCC Members

Majed A. Al Suwailem, Abdullah Aldayel

As of December 2018, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries had combined proven reserves of 497 billion barrels of crude oil. This represents approximately 34% of the world’s estimated proven crude reserves.

Al Suwailem, Majed A.

Aldayel, Abdullah

Crude Oil and Refined Products

Rami Shabaneh, Abdullah Aldayel

The power sector in Saudi Arabia makes up just over half of the natural gas demand in the Kingdom, followed by the industrial sector and non-energy use as a feedstock for petrochemicals.

Shabaneh, Rami

Aldayel, Abdullah

Market Structure, Inventories and Oil Prices: An Empirical Analysis

Jennifer Considine, Philipp Galkin, Abdullah Aldayel

Understanding the relationship between crude oil prices and inventory levels is critical for policymakers and economic actors. The size of the ‘basis,’ or spread between spot and futures prices, reflects the level of inventories and can trigger arbitrage trading. The…

Considine, Jennifer

Galkin, Philipp

Aldayel, Abdullah

Assessment of Coronavirus Effects on Oil Demand Implied by Price Elasticities

Ronald Ripple, Dongmei Chen, Abdullah Aldayel, Hamid M. Al Sadoon

There appears to be a significant response in the crude oil markets to the coronavirus outbreak that originated in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 and has since spread globally. Many cities in Hubei, of which Wuhan is the capital, have been…

Ripple, Ronald

Chen, Dongmei

Aldayel, Abdullah

Al Sadoon, Hamid M.

The Value of Spot Sales to a Producing Country Subject to Production Quotas

Jennifer Considine, Kang Wu, Abdullah Aldayel

In recent years, global oil markets have experienced intensified competition driven by growing surpluses of lighter crude and shale oil. As their margins have shrunk, many producers have increased output in order to boost revenue, adding to the oversupply. Meanwhile,…

Considine, Jennifer

Wu, Kang

Aldayel, Abdullah

Securing New Markets in Asia: The Value of Strategic Spot Crude Oil Sales to Teapot Refiners

Jennifer Considine, Kang Wu, Abdullah Aldayel

In the race to secure customers on competitive world oil markets, many oil producers are looking to China as a promising source of increased market share. The task of securing new customers in China can be challenging, as most of…

Considine, Jennifer

Wu, Kang

Aldayel, Abdullah

The Impact of Global Trade Disruptions on World Oil Markets

Abdullah Aldayel, AlJawhara Al Quayid, Jennifer Considine, Emre Hatipoglu

After decades of relatively smooth trade liberalization, a wave of protectionist measures and a global trade war is now threatening world trade. On September 1, 2019, the United States (U.S.) imposed a new series of tariffs on Chinese imports worth…

Aldayel, Abdullah

Al Quayid, AlJawhara

Considine, Jennifer

Hatipoglu, Emre

A Short-Term Forecasting Model for Brent Oil Prices

Hamid M. Al Sadoon, Colin Ward, Jennifer Considine, Abdullah Aldayel

The KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook (KOMO) has been designed to provide readers with a timely source of data, forecasts and analysis of world oil markets, including an understanding of the key factors affecting world oil prices. This paper gives a…

Al Sadoon, Hamid M.

Ward, Colin

Considine, Jennifer

Aldayel, Abdullah