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      Economic Diversification Under Saudi Vision 2030
      Productivity and Economic Diversification

      Economic Diversification Under Saudi Vision 2030

      David Havrlant, Abdulelah Darandary

      The last decade has brought a row of substantial changes that have profound implications for the hydrocarbon resource-rich economies. The general answer to a changing environment is: Adapt! From the macroeconomic perspective, this means diversifying the economy to broaden the…

      David Havrlant Havrlant, David
      Abdulelah Darandary Darandary, Abdulelah
      14th April 2021
      Economic  Diversification in the MENA Region

      Economic Diversification in the MENA Region

      T20

      The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region consists of a heterogeneous group of countries ranging from high-income countries in the Arabian Gulf to middle-income and least developed countries. A dominant concern in the MENA region is the high dependence…

      Said A. Alshaikh, Jamal Alzayer, Imed Drine, David Havrlant, Abdulelah Darandary, Farah Durani, Salah Abu Nar, Hatem Akeel

      2020
      Estimating the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Saudi GDP

      Estimating the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Saudi GDP

      David Havrlant, Abdulelah Darandary, Abdelrahman Muhsen

      The COVID-19 pandemic has interrupted economic and social activity globally at an unprecedented pace. The international movement of goods has been limited to the necessary minimum, often solely for deliveries of protective and healthcare equipment. Many governments have imposed strict…

      David Havrlant Havrlant, David
      Abdulelah Darandary Darandary, Abdulelah
      Abdelrahman Muhsen Muhsen, Abdelrahman
      10th June 2020
      Saudi Vision 2030 Dynamic Input-Output Table: Combining Macroeconomic Forecasts With the RAS Method
      Productivity and Economic Diversification

      Saudi Vision 2030 Dynamic Input-Output Table: Combining Macroeconomic Forecasts With the RAS Method

      David Havrlant, Mehmet Ali Soytas

      When an economy is in the midst of a transformation and diversification process, it is hard to assume that its sectoral composition and inter-industry transactions will remain unchanged. This is especially the case since substantial adjustments to a country’s economic…

      David Havrlant Havrlant, David
      Mehmet Ali Soytas Soytas, Mehmet Ali
      12th April 2020
      Economic Convergence in the Czech Republic and Slovakia

      Economic Convergence in the Czech Republic and Slovakia

      European Commission, Economic Brief 034

      This brief discusses economic convergence in the Czech Republic and Slovakia vis-à-vis the EU-28 during the past two decades, focusing mainly on developments in Gross National Income (GNI) per capita. It addresses three questions. First, did economic convergence take place in both…

      David Havrlant

      2018
      Forecasting Czech GDP Using Mixed-Frequency Data Models

      Forecasting Czech GDP Using Mixed-Frequency Data Models

      Journal of Business Cycle Research, vol. 12(2), pages 165-185

      In this paper we use a battery of various mixed-frequency data models to forecast Czech GDP growth. The models  employed are mixed-frequency vector autoregressions, mixed-data sampling models, and the dynamic factor model. Using a dataset of historical vintages of unrevised…

      David Havrlant

      2016
      On the optimal number of indicators – nowcasting GDP growth in CESEE

      On the optimal number of indicators – nowcasting GDP growth in CESEE

      Austrian Central Bank Working Paper Series, issue 4, pages 54-72.

      We employ principal components and dynamic factor models for nowcasting GDP growth in selected Central, Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) economies. Our estimation sample extends from the first quarter of 2000 to the second quarter of 2008, our evaluation period…

      David Havrlant

      2016
      Models of Factors Driving the Czech Export

      Models of Factors Driving the Czech Export

      Prague Economic Papers

      This paper aims to analyze the cost factors that influence the export of the Czech Republic, and to estimate models suitable for quantitative analysis of export and its prediction. According to the macroeconomic theory, the  fundamental export factors include foreign…

      David Havrlant

      2011
      Short-Term Forecasting of Czech Quarterly GDP Using Monthly Indicators

      Short-Term Forecasting of Czech Quarterly GDP Using Monthly Indicators

      Czech Journal of Economics and Finance, vol. 61(6), pages 566-583

      We evaluate the out-of-sample forecasting performance of six competing models at horizons of up to three quarters ahead in a pseudo-real time setup. All the models use information in monthly indicators released ahead of quarterly GDP. We estimate two models…

      David Havrlant

      2011