• Initiative -
  • Type KAPSARC journal article
  • Date 1st March 2016


We focus on the elite decision-making process in China, analyzing the formation of coalitions around particular policy options. We apply a framework that simulates collective decision-making processes (CDMP): the KAPSARC Toolkit for Behavioral Analysis (KTAB). KTAB facilitates the application of a Spatial Model of Politics, an open source model similar to Bueno de Mesquita’s (1997) Expected Utility Model and the Senturion model (Abdollahian, et al 2006). KTAB provides a framework to understand logical consequences of subjective data inputs, enabling contrasting scenarios to be analyzed. We examine the interactions of actors’ interests that drive China to reform its energy sector policies, in particular the structure of the Chinese National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC). In the case of private companies’ entry into energy markets in China, we find that little reform is likely. The inertia of key actors holds back the potential for a significant opening of the energy sector. Despite the erosion of CNPC’s political clout, there is little consensus for major reform to China’s market position. © East Asia Institute.


Journal of East Asian Studies


Brian Efird

Program Director Dr. Brian Efird is the Program Director for Policy and Decision Science and Acting Program Director for Climate and Environment.… Dr. Brian Efird is the Program Director for Policy and Decision Science and Acting Program Director for Climate and Environment. He manages a multidisciplinary, multi-national team of researchers who work on quantitative models of collective decision-making processes (CDMP), geospatial information system applications for energy economics and energy policy, demography and energy, and energy policy studies of countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region. Dr. Efird is editor-in-chief of the Springer Scientific journal, Energy Transitions. He was previously a senior research fellow at the National Defense University in Washington, D.C.; a consultant on defense and international security matters in Washington; and a consultant applying quantitative models to support corporate, investment banking, and legal negotiations in New York.


  • Behavioral Modeling
  • Geopolitics
  • Defense and National Security Studies
  • Human Geography
  • Strategic Communication

Publications See all Brian Efird’s publications

Leo Lester

Leo Lester


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