We focus on the elite decision-making process in China, analyzing the formation of coalitions around particular policy options. We apply a framework that simulates collective decision-making processes (CDMP): the KAPSARC Toolkit for Behavioral Analysis (KTAB). KTAB facilitates the application of a Spatial Model of Politics, an open source model similar to Bueno de Mesquita’s (1997) Expected Utility Model and the Senturion model (Abdollahian, et al 2006). KTAB provides a framework to understand logical consequences of subjective data inputs, enabling contrasting scenarios to be analyzed. We examine the interactions of actors’ interests that drive China to reform its energy sector policies, in particular the structure of the Chinese National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC). In the case of private companies’ entry into energy markets in China, we find that little reform is likely. The inertia of key actors holds back the potential for a significant opening of the energy sector. Despite the erosion of CNPC’s political clout, there is little consensus for major reform to China’s market position. © East Asia Institute.
Program Director Brian Efird is the program director for Policy and Decision Science and a senior research fellow. He manages a multidisciplinary,… Brian Efird is the program director for Policy and Decision Science and a senior research fellow. He manages a multidisciplinary, multinational team of researchers whose global program of work focuses on the nexus between geopolitics, domestic and local politics, and energy. Fundamentally, the team examines the non-economic factors that impact energy markets and energy policy. This includes quantitative models of collective decision-making processes (CDMP), geospatial information system (GIS) applications, the energy policymaking process, and country-specific studies. Dr. Efird is managing editor of the journal Energy Transitions. He was previously a senior research fellow at the National Defense University in Washington, D.C.; a consultant on defense and international security matters in Washington; and a consultant applying quantitative models to support corporate, investment banking, and legal negotiations in New York. Dr. Efird received his M.A. in International Studies and Ph.D. in Political Science from Claremont Graduate University.
- Geopolitics of Energy
- Behavioral Modeling
- Defense and National Security Studies
- Strategic Communication
Publications See all Brian Efird’s publications
Spatial Modeling of Bargaining Among Stakeholders in Energy Policy: The Case of Japanese Nuclear Plants
We focus on the elite decision-making process in China, analyzing the formation of coalitions around…15th February 2023
India’s Ambition to Achieve Net-Zero Emissions by 2070: Uncertainty and Opportunity
We focus on the elite decision-making process in China, analyzing the formation of coalitions around…29th December 2021