Analyzing coalitions in China's policy formulation: Reforming the role of state-owned enterprises in China's energy sector

Initiative -
Type KAPSARC journal article
Date March 1, 2016

Abstract

We focus on the elite decision-making process in China, analyzing the formation of coalitions around particular policy options. We apply a framework that simulates collective decision-making processes (CDMP): the KAPSARC Toolkit for Behavioral Analysis (KTAB). KTAB facilitates the application of a Spatial Model of Politics, an open source model similar to Bueno de Mesquita’s (1997) Expected Utility Model and the Senturion model (Abdollahian, et al 2006). KTAB provides a framework to understand logical consequences of subjective data inputs, enabling contrasting scenarios to be analyzed. We examine the interactions of actors’ interests that drive China to reform its energy sector policies, in particular the structure of the Chinese National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC). In the case of private companies’ entry into energy markets in China, we find that little reform is likely. The inertia of key actors holds back the potential for a significant opening of the energy sector. Despite the erosion of CNPC’s political clout, there is little consensus for major reform to China’s market position. © East Asia Institute.

https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-east-asian-studies/article/analyzing-coalitions-in-chinas-policy-formulation-reforming-the-role-of-stateowned-enterprises-in-chinas-energy-sector/02CBC45E77B24847E06A3631ADA20771

Journal of East Asian Studies

Authors

Brian Efird

Program Director Dr. Brian Efird is the program director for Policy and Decision Science. He manages a multidisciplinary, multi-national team of researchers… Dr. Brian Efird is the program director for Policy and Decision Science. He manages a multidisciplinary, multi-national team of researchers who work on quantitative models of collective decision-making processes (CDMP), geospatial information system applications to energy economics and energy policy, demography and energy, and energy policy studies of countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region. Dr. Efird is co-editor-in-chief of a new journal from Springer Scientific called Energy Transitions. He was previously a senior research fellow at the National Defense University in Washington, D.C.; a consultant on defense and international security matters in Washington; and a consultant applying quantitative models to support corporate, investment banking, and legal negotiations in New York.

Expertise

Behavioral modeling
Geopolitics
Defense and national security studies
Human geography
Strategic communication

Publications See all Brian Efird’s publications

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Ben Wise

Visiting Researcher Ben Wise is a visiting research at KAPSARC. He supports the Policy Decision Sciences group as the main architect of… Ben Wise is a visiting research at KAPSARC. He supports the Policy Decision Sciences group as the main architect of the KAPSARC Toolkit for Behavior Analysis (KTAB). His research interests focus on the development of formal models of negotiation and their practical application to policy analysis. He began working with KAPSARC in 2014, after spending 25 years in various positions in corporate R&D or nonprofit research. Dr. Wise led many projects for research, consulting, policy analysis, doctrine development, and distributed training.

Expertise