Assessing the impact of political disruptions on crude oil trade

Initiative -
Type Book/book chapter
Date 1 January 2016

Abstract

Provides an empirical evaluation of energy trade flows, focusing on crude oil trade among the top 20 crude oil exporters and top 20 crude oil importers. We assess the potential impact of cross-national political disruptions (bilateral and regional) on energy trade between the six producing countries in the GCC and four consuming economies in Northeast Asia. We econometrically measure the impact of political disruptions on total crude oil trade for economies in these two regions to systematically address the question of how much political shocks threaten energy security and the flow of trade. We pay particular attention to how domestic, regional, and international political phenomena and irregular political crises might disrupt energy trade, and under what conditions such disruption might or might not occur. © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2016.

Authors

Kenneth White

Brian Efird

Program Director Brian Efird is the program director for Policy and Decision Science and a senior research fellow. He manages a multidisciplinary,… Brian Efird is the program director for Policy and Decision Science and a senior research fellow. He manages a multidisciplinary, multinational team of researchers whose global program of work focuses on the nexus between geopolitics, domestic and local politics, and energy. Fundamentally, the team examines the non-economic factors that impact energy markets and energy policy. This includes quantitative models of collective decision-making processes (CDMP), geospatial information system (GIS) applications, the energy policymaking process, and country-specific studies. Dr. Efird is managing editor of the journal Energy Transitions. He was previously a senior research fellow at the National Defense University in Washington, D.C.; a consultant on defense and international security matters in Washington; and a consultant applying quantitative models to support corporate, investment banking, and legal negotiations in New York. Dr. Efird received his M.A. in International Studies and Ph.D. in Political Science from Claremont Graduate University.

Expertise

Geopolitics of Energy
Behavioral Modeling
Defense and National Security Studies
Strategic Communication

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Sadeem Alhosain

Research Associate Sadeem Alhosain is a research associate in the Energy Information Management team focused on energy and demographic changes, energy information… Sadeem Alhosain is a research associate in the Energy Information Management team focused on energy and demographic changes, energy information management and data portal development. She is an economic data specialist on Saudi Arabia, the rest of GCC countries, India and China. Sadeem is an expert in data availability, data sources, data transformation, and data quality levels for research use. She is building the KAPSARC energy data portal and insight apps development.

Expertise