Evidence confirms that there is a positive correlation between the economic growth rate and its volatility/risk in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region. In other words, there is a trade-off between the benefits of oil and gas activity and the volatility resulting from unpredictable commodity price swings in such resource dependent economies. Our analysis uses a financial portfolio framework approach (and more specifically an efficient frontier analysis), treating economic sectors as individual investments. We calculate a relative risk measure termed the ‘beta coefficient’ and assemble a portfolio of sectors with varying weights to find the efficient frontier. If the beta of the portfolio representing the economy is above global average, the economy will generally grow faster than the global average but with greater volatility – the upturns will be higher and the downturns deeper. We aim to shed light on diversification policy from this novel, if not yet widely accepted, perspective.
Senior Research Analyst Ziyad is a Senior Research Analyst at KAPSARC focusing on energy demand modeling. He has also worked on developing a… Ziyad is a Senior Research Analyst at KAPSARC focusing on energy demand modeling. He has also worked on developing a macroeconometric model of Saudi Arabia. He is currently on sabbatical to undertake an M.Sc. in operations research.