Energy Transition in Oil-Dependent Economies: Public Discount Rates for Investment Project Evaluation

  • Focus Area Evaluation of Public Investment Projects Evaluation of Public Investment Projects
  • Type Discussion paper
  • Date 05 June 2024
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Abstract

The selection of welfare-enhancing projects necessitates the determination of the present value of cash flows from a public policy perspective. For an oil-exporting economy, the domestic energy transition often implies displacing oil from domestic consumption. Economic dependence on oil affects the public discount rate for oil-related cash flows in two opposite ways. On the one hand, it renders the economy more volatile, lowering the risk-free discount rate; on the other hand, it increases the correlation between consumption and the oil price, resulting in a higher risk premium. To study these opposite effects, we first derive the public discount rate for an oil-related investment project. Our framework considers economic uncertainty and an oil price-related risk premium, and it makes it possible to value oil at its opportunity cost. We illustrate our methodology using data from a panel of 26 oil-exporting countries. The results indicate that a risk-free discount rate of 3.1% is appropriate for our panel. However, to discount oil-related cash flows, a risk premium of 1.4% needs to be added to the risk-free rate, yielding a risk-adjusted real discount rate of 4.5%. We find significant disparities between country-specific public discount rates. Additionally, for each country, we assess the present value of reducing domestic oil consumption by a barrel per day from 2023 to 2040, decomposing the different effects. Oil-exporting countries can use our estimates to make investment or policy decisions.

Authors

Fatih Karanfil

Fatih Karanfil

Principal Fellow- Energy Macro & Microeconomics Fatih is an economist who is interested in energy and environment. Before joining KAPSARC in December 2017, he was an…

Fatih is an economist who is interested in energy and environment. Before joining KAPSARC in December 2017, he was an Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Paris Nanterre and was a Fellow at EconomiX-CNRS in France. During this period, he conducted research, taught courses in energy economics, environmental economics, and econometrics, and contributed to projects funded by organizations such as the European Renewable Energy Council, the French Energy Council, and Région Île-de-France.

Fatih’s work at KAPSARC mainly focuses on developing economic frameworks to provide insights into energy and economic policymaking in oil-producing countries, particularly Saudi Arabia. His research appears in leading journals in energy economics as well as general-interest economics journals.

He received his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne in 2008. Prior to that, he completed an M.A. in Economic Analysis and Modeling jointly offered by the University of Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne and École Centrale Paris. Fatih also holds an HDR degree, which is a French accreditation to supervise doctoral research.

Expertise

  • Energy Economics
  • Environmental Economics
  • Applied Economics

Publications See all Fatih Karanfil’s publications

Axel Pierru

Axel Pierru

Vice President, Knowledge & Analysis Axel Pierru was appointed Vice President of Knowledge and Analysis by the Board of Trustees of KAPSARC in December 2023.…

Axel Pierru was appointed Vice President of Knowledge and Analysis by the Board of Trustees of KAPSARC in December 2023. In this role, he oversees and provides thought leadership to KAPSARC’s research and analysis activities.

He joined KAPSARC in 2011, after spending 15 years at IFP Energies Nouvelles in France where he led research and consulting projects and taught energy economics and finance to postgraduate students. He has served in various leadership roles at KAPSARC, including serving as interim Vice President for Research. From 2014 to 2023 he was a program director, leading the Energy Systems & Modeling, Energy & Macroeconomics, and Energy Macro & Micro-Economics research programs.

Dr. Pierru earned his Ph.D. in economics from University Paris 1 Pantheon-Sorbonne (France). He also holds an HDR degree, which is a French accreditation to supervise research. In 2007, Dr. Pierru was awarded Chevalier dans l’Ordre des Palmes Académiques (knighthood award in the academic field) by the French Ministry for National Education. He is an editor of The Energy Journal, as well as the corecipient of the 2023 OPEC Award for the Best Energy Research Paper, a first-time honor from OPEC.

He leads the Knowledge & Analysis team in designing applied research that blends methodological innovation with practical significance for policymaking. His expertise covers energy economics, policy and finance, the oil market, energy transitions, and commodity-exporting economies.

Dr. Pierru has a proven track record of methodological innovations with over 50 journal papers to his name. He has been a key contributor to developing new research avenues, such as the role of OPEC in stabilizing the oil market, the economic modeling of price controls, or the evaluation of investment projects by international oil companies facing various tax systems.

He also coauthored with Denis Babusiaux the book Corporate Investment Decisions and Economic Analysis: Exercises and Case Studies (2005), a culmination of years of teaching, consulting, and research.

Expertise

  • Energy modelling
  • Energy economics
  • Energy policy
  • Oil pricing and finance

Publications See all Axel Pierru’s publications

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