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Abstract

The United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) and KAPSARC co-hosted an expert workshop on the international outlook for oil and gas, held in Washington, D.C. on September 18, 2018. The workshop focused on the global oil and gas supply and demand equilibrium, the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) outlook, regional LNG developments, the economics of modeling oil demand, and the changing energy mix in the United States and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in a global context. During the one-day workshop, over 50 participants from government, industry, and academia examined the current status of global oil and gas markets, and forecasting and modeling methodologies, as well as future trends and likely global challenges for oil and gas markets.

Key insights

  • Improving data forecasts for global and regional supply and demand involves transitioning from analyst-based approaches to model-based approaches. A comparative analysis of long-term outlooks may provide insight into the differences between approaches.
  • Understanding the diversity of global energy demand forecasts requires a clear overview of electrification and climate policy adoption assumptions, as most liquids demand forecasts have so far fallen short of actual demand. Oil demand remains resilient and chemicals and transport will fuel liquids demand growth.
  • Future oil demand will be driven by plastics and petrochemicals. Better definitions of oil as feedstock for petrochemicals and statistics and reporting consistencies are needed to consolidate growth in crude consumption, expected to come from the petrochemicals sector.
  • Worldwide LNG supply and liquefaction capacity are growing. The expansion of global liquefaction capacity has led to more liquid and more commoditized LNG markets, with an increase in spot trading, and a move from oil-based to hub-based pricing.
  • Market coordination can help regional partners achieve energy transition goals by improving international connections through natural gas markets and regional electricity trade.
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