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Abstract

The global oil market moved into deficit in the third quarter of this year and is expected to remain in deficit during the next eight quarters. We expect the deficit to range between 3.4 – 0.1 million barrels per day (MMb/d) until OPEC ends its cuts in April 2022. The most significant drivers of the shift have been the recovery of global demand and the strong compliance of OPEC members and OPEC partners (OPEC+) with the production cuts agreed by OPEC+ at the group’s historic April meeting.

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