Since real oil price is positively correlated with real consumption and domesticincome in Saudi Arabia, a risk premium needs to be considered when assessingthe net present value of oil-related public investment projects. For projects generatingadditional oil exports, this risk premium quantifies the cost of increaseddependence on oil revenues. For projects transforming oil into products whoseprices are less correlated with the Saudi economy, it quantifies the benefit fromreducing the aggregate risk. The value of this risk premium depends on expectationsabout future consumption and oil price. By considering alternative assumptions,we show that over a one-year horizon this risk premium could rangebetween 1.3% and 5% of the expected oil-related cash flow, with higher premiafor longer planning horizons. We discuss the implications of these calculationsfor energy-related public projects in Saudi Arabia and, more generally, for publicdecision-making in resource-rich countries. © 2014 by the IAEE. All rights reserved.
Acting Vice President/ Program Director Axel Pierru received his Ph.D. in economics from University Paris 1 Pantheon-Sorbonne (France). He also holds an HDR degree, which… Axel Pierru received his Ph.D. in economics from University Paris 1 Pantheon-Sorbonne (France). He also holds an HDR degree, which is a French accreditation to supervise research. In 2007, Dr. Pierru was appointed Chevalier dans l’Ordre des Palmes Académiques (knighthood award in the academic field) by the French Ministry for National Education. In 2011 Dr. Pierru joined KAPSARC in Saudi Arabia, after spending 15 years at IFP Energies Nouvelles (France) where he led research, consulting and training projects and taught energy economics and finance to postgraduate students. Dr. Pierru has served in various leadership positions at KAPSARC, including as interim Vice President for Research. Since 2014 he has been a program director, and currently he leads the Energy Macro & Micro-economics Program. He is also Acting Vice President, Knowledge & Analysis. He undertakes applied research that combines methodological innovation with practical relevance for policymaking. His expertise covers oil market and pricing, energy economics, policy, finance and modeling, and oil-exporting economies. Dr. Pierru has a proven track record of methodological innovations with 50 journal papers to his name. He has been a key contributor to the development of novel lines of research, such as the role of OPEC in stabilizing the oil market, the economic modeling of price controls, or the evaluation of investment projects by international oil companies facing various tax systems. He also coauthored with Denis Babusiaux the book Corporate Investment Decisions and Economic Analysis: Exercises and Case Studies (2005), which is the fruit of years of teaching, consulting and research, and contains numerous examples from the oil and gas sector.
Expertise
- Energy modelling
- Energy economics
- Energy policy
- Oil pricing and finance
Publications See all Axel Pierru’s publications
Hard-linking a Top-down Economic Model with a Bottom-up Energy System for an Oil-exporting Country with Price Controls
Since real oil price is positively correlated with real consumption and domesticincome in Saudi Arabia,…
7th January 2023Oil Market Stabilization: The Performance of OPEC and Its Allies
Since real oil price is positively correlated with real consumption and domesticincome in Saudi Arabia,…
15th November 2022
