David Soud

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Biography

Publications

See all David’s publications
  • Discussion paper
  • Commentaries
Unraveling the Black Market for Oil: The Complex Web of Phantom Trade and Its Reverberating Effects on Energy Security, Trade Balances, and Social Welfare

Unraveling the Black Market for Oil: The Complex Web of Phantom Trade and Its Reverberating Effects on Energy Security, Trade Balances, and Social Welfare

In the energy market, the black market1 for oil embodies the ancient parable of the blind men and the elephant. Just as the blind men each touched a different part of the elephant and experienced only a fraction of its true nature, so do policymakers perceive the black market for oil through narrow lenses. However, this market, like the imposing elephant, manifests itself in diverse and multifaceted forms that demand nuanced understanding and cannot be dismissed.

14th October 2024
No Magic Bullet The Challenge of Security Interventions in Phantom Oil Flows

No Magic Bullet The Challenge of Security Interventions in Phantom Oil Flows

The discovery and exploitation of oil and gas significantly transformed the global economy and social welfare landscape. Oil, in particular, became the lifeblood of industrialization, fueling the growth of numerous sectors, including transportation, manufacturing, and electricity generation. The economic boom experienced by oil-rich countries, particularly in the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa, facilitated unprecedented infrastructural development, improved living standards, and enabled the creation of welfare states. The proliferation of oil also played a pivotal role in shaping international relations, with countries vying for control over oil-rich regions, thus redefining geopolitical dynamics. The post-World War II era marked a period of rapid economic expansion and modernization, heavily underpinned by the steady flow of affordable energy from oil.

7th January 2025
The New Oil Market Multiverse: Physical Commodity Swaps as Instruments for Circumventing Sanctions and Their Implications for the Global Economy

The New Oil Market Multiverse: Physical Commodity Swaps as Instruments for Circumventing Sanctions and Their Implications for the Global Economy

From the global pandemic to the aftershocks of the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, the past few years have witnessed a reordering of global trade flows, most dramatically in the energy sector. Less obviously, these shifts have also precipitated an emerging trend toward alternative forms of commerce operating outside the customary channels of the global financial system. Such alternatives include local currency settlements and physical commodity swaps. Although such instruments are nothing new, their use by state actors as a way to circumvent both sanctions and the dominance of the U.S. dollar has implications that warrant careful study.

23rd May 2024

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