Anticipating Trend Shifts in Oil Prices Using the Crude Oil Storage Index

  • Program Oil & Gas (upstream & downstream) Oil & Gas (upstream & downstream)
  • Type Discussion paper
  • Date 07 January 2025
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Abstract

The dynamics of crude oil prices have been characterized by a pronounced price trend, high-intensity jumps, and volatility. The price trend can be divided into three distinct categories: rising, falling, and “choppy sideways” or range bound in what is commonly known as a symmetrical triangle or pennant technical pattern . A change in the trend generally requires a change in the underlying market fundamentals, such as supply, demand, legislation, and geopolitical happenstance. Traders’ and market players’ expectations concerning these trends in the future are reflected in crude oil spread options prices, which can be used to forecast significant changes in the long-term movements of global oil prices.

Authors

Philipp Galkin

Philipp Galkin

Visiting Researcher- Oil & Gas Philipp is a visiting researcher at KAPSARC, working on the economic and policy aspects of energy supply and trade. Philipp’s…

Philipp is a visiting researcher at KAPSARC, working on the economic and policy aspects of energy supply and trade. Philipp’s work at KAPSARC includes evaluating the effect of preferential trade agreements on energy flows, analysis of OPEC energy policy and deriving insights related to China’s energy policy and its impact on global markets through modeling energy supply sectors.

Expertise

  • International economic relations
  • Regional and country studies and policy analysis

Publications See all Philipp Galkin’s publications

Jennifer Considine

Jennifer Considine

Visiting Researcher- Oil & Gas Dr. Considine is an Honorary Senior Research Fellow at the CEPMLP in Scotland, where she has developed courses and seminars…

Dr. Considine is an Honorary Senior Research Fellow at the CEPMLP in Scotland, where she has developed courses and seminars on various topics related to the energy industry. She has published a book and several papers on energy politics, world oil market projections, and the Russian oil economy and its future role in the global energy market. She has also consulted for several energy companies and organizations, such as Coastal Corp. Ecopetrol, ANR Pipeline Company, Husky Energy, Pieridae Energy, and the University of Texas at Austin School of Law. She is passionate about advancing knowledge and understanding of the energy sector and its complex dynamics. Dr. Considine holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Aberdeen and a master’s degree in Economics from the University of Chicago.

Expertise

  • World oil and inventories
  • Commodity trading and technology
  • Russian oil industry
  • Econometrics options pricing
  • Commercial strategies

Publications See all Jennifer Considine’s publications

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