Considine, Jennifer

  • Primary Program Oil & Gas
  • Research Interests World oil and inventories, commodity trading and technology, Russian oil industry, econometrics options pricing, commercial strategies

Biography

Dr. Considine is an Honorary Senior Research Fellow at the CEPMLP in Scotland, where she has developed courses and seminars on various topics related to the energy industry. She has published a book and several papers on energy politics, world oil market projections, and the Russian oil economy and its future role in the global energy market. She has also consulted for several energy companies and organizations, such as Coastal Corp. Ecopetrol, ANR Pipeline Company, Husky Energy, Pieridae Energy, and the University of Texas at Austin School of Law. She is passionate about advancing knowledge and understanding of the energy sector and its complex dynamics. Dr. Considine holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Aberdeen and a master’s degree in Economics from the University of Chicago.

Publications

See all Jennifer’s publications
  • Discussion papers
  • Methodology papers
  • Instant Insights
  • Commentary
  • KAPSARC journal articles
  • External journal articles
Is the Shale Oil Rush Over?

Is the Shale Oil Rush Over?

The California Gold Rush was a time of exuberance and technological development in the mining sector and exhibits significant parallels with shale development that are worth exploring. The easy wins of the pioneers gave way to larger organizations with better funding and technology, squeezing out smaller players as shale development became a contest of efficiency and diminishing returns.

20th November 2023
Reconsidering Inventories: An International Strategy for Strategic Storage Assets

Reconsidering Inventories: An International Strategy for Strategic Storage Assets

The purpose of this report is to recommend an interconnected regional and international strategy to share the burden of developing and maintaining commercial and strategic storage infrastructure for Saudi crude oil and products through an alliance with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and other countries. If properly implemented, the project has the capacity to enhance the security of oil supply throughout the transition to a green economy. Such enhancement can be achieved through the centralized tracking and management of commercial and strategic stockpiles overseas. The initiative will forge new links in the global supply chain for crude oil and liquids and reveal new forms of financing for strategic petroleum reserves (SPRs).

26th September 2023
Balancing World Oil Markets and Understanding Contango and Inventories: The Changing Nature of World Oil Markets

Balancing World Oil Markets and Understanding Contango and Inventories: The Changing Nature of World Oil Markets

The general theory of storage suggests that the level of inventories is a key factor in determining the structure of the oil futures curve, or the basis, over time. The basis is the difference between the price of oil in the futures market and the price of oil in the spot market. As an indicator of future price movements, the basis follows a different dynamic when inventories are in scarce supply or in surplus. This means that there are several different market states that reflect different underlying crude oil market conditions. 

6th July 2020
Market Structure, Inventories and Oil Prices: An Empirical Analysis

Market Structure, Inventories and Oil Prices: An Empirical Analysis

Understanding the relationship between crude oil prices and inventory levels is critical for policymakers and economic actors. The size of the ‘basis,’ or spread between spot and futures prices, reflects the level of inventories and can trigger arbitrage trading. The basis also reflects broader underlying market conditions and can be useful to policymakers such as the International Energy Agency and OPEC attempting to monitor and stabilize world oil markets.

24th February 2020
Placing a Value on Spot Sales from a Joint Oil Stockpiling Facility

Placing a Value on Spot Sales from a Joint Oil Stockpiling Facility

In this paper, joint oil stockpiling (JOS) refers to a commercial arrangement whereby crude oil, owned and commercially traded by an exporting country, is stored in an importing country in exchange for priority drawdown by the host country in the event of an emergency. It can thus be classified as both commercial and strategic storage (Doshi and Six 2017). 

23rd January 2020
The Value of Spot Sales to a Producing Country Subject to Production Quotas

The Value of Spot Sales to a Producing Country Subject to Production Quotas

In recent years, global oil markets have experienced intensified competition driven by growing surpluses of lighter crude and shale oil. As their margins have shrunk, many producers have increased output in order to boost revenue, adding to the oversupply. Meanwhile, global market dynamics have been upended, with many predicting that the United States will become the primary swing supplier of crude oil (Morse 2018). This atmosphere is particularly challenging for those major oil companies subject to strict production quotas, as they seek to maximize profitability while maintaining constant levels of crude oil production and sales.

16th January 2020
Securing New Markets in Asia: The Value of Strategic Spot Crude Oil Sales to Teapot Refiners

Securing New Markets in Asia: The Value of Strategic Spot Crude Oil Sales to Teapot Refiners

In the race to secure customers on competitive world oil markets, many oil producers are looking to China as a promising source of increased market share. The task of securing new customers in China can be challenging, as most of China’s recent growth in oil demand has come from ‘teapot refiners’ who have been less predictable, and more like the ‘wild west,’ than China’s national oil companies. Teapot refiners tend to be more focused on short-term profits than long-term relationships.

18th December 2019
World Oil and Critical Mineral Study: A Global VAR Analysis

World Oil and Critical Mineral Study: A Global VAR Analysis

Critical minerals (CMs), such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earth metals, are essential for the development of clean energy technologies across the whole value chain of wind and solar power, electricity networks, and electric vehicles (EVs). Demand for these minerals is expected to grow quickly as energy transitions accelerate. Other sectors that depend on CMs include the electronics, defense and space industries.

26th September 2023
Global Crude Oil Storage Index: A New Benchmark for Energy Policy

Global Crude Oil Storage Index: A New Benchmark for Energy Policy

The global oil market dwarfs other commodity markets. Its size and role in the energy and industrial value chains underscore its significant economic and geopolitical impacts. Thus, the consequences of oil price fluctuations extend far beyond the oil industry and can be viewed as a barometer of trends in the global economy. Several oil price benchmarks currently compete in the global market. The most popular ones, such as Brent or West Texas Intermediate (WTI), are backed by a sufficient supply of the underlying crude. They also meet the criteria for efficient trading, hedging and speculating — including having sufficient liquidity, developed futures markets, low transaction costs and strong institutional support.

13th September 2022
World Oil and Inventory Study: A Global VAR Analysis

World Oil and Inventory Study: A Global VAR Analysis

Despite numerous journal articles, forecasting studies, and books, very little is known about the actual quantitative value, or economic cost, of shocks to world oil markets. The potential consequences of a given political or economic disturbance are unclear, and appear to depend on market conditions at the time of forecast and the idiosyncratic nature of the shock (see Figure 1). This study develops a new analytical framework to analyze shocks to world oil markets. We build upon the global vector autoregression (GVAR) model developed in 2016 by Mohaddes  and Pesaran to include a new variable, OECD oil inventories, creating the GVAR Oil and Inventory Model — GOVAR. We also expand its geographic coverage by adding two new countries, Russia and Venezuela.    

10th June 2020
A Short-Term Forecasting Model for Brent Oil Prices

A Short-Term Forecasting Model for Brent Oil Prices

The KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook (KOMO) has been designed to provide readers with a timely source of data, forecasts and analysis of world oil markets, including an understanding of the key factors affecting world oil prices. This paper gives a detailed description of the scope of KOMO, including the models and methodology used in the analysis.

20th October 2019
Capturing the Value From Supply-Side Shocks in the Heavy Crude Market

Capturing the Value From Supply-Side Shocks in the Heavy Crude Market

The Russian-Ukraine conflict and sanctions on Russian crude oil flows have significantly affected world oil markets. Price volatility has increased, flows have been re-directed and there is considerable uncertainty concerning future energy policy. The implications of these changes affect all market segments including those where Russian supplies have been limited or absent. Thus, recent events have exacerbated problems observed in the already tight global heavy crude sector, where key exporters have been constrained either by sanctions (Iran and Venezuela) or by logistic bottlenecks (Canada).

29th January 2023
The G7 Pricing Scheme, an Exercise in Monopsony Power

The G7 Pricing Scheme, an Exercise in Monopsony Power

High in the Bavarian Alps, at a special security session, G7 leaders set out to devise an ambitious plan to sanction Russian energy sales. The intent was to reduce Russian profits from oil and gas sales, while minimizing the damage to developed economies caused by rising fuel prices and inflation. The proposed solution, a ceiling on the price of oil and gas, is a new, untried method, which will be carefully constructed to allow oil to continue to flow to low- and middle-income countries, while limiting the economic benefit to Russia.

17th January 2023
The Effects of Russian Sanctions on the Global Economy

The Effects of Russian Sanctions on the Global Economy

On February 24, 2022, Russia began a ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine, which quickly escalated into a militarized conflict across multiple fronts. The act drew immediate disapproval from the United Nations and led most members of the Western alliance to impose sanctions on Russia, which has had negative spillover effects on the world economy.

10th October 2022
Extreme Market Distortions Canadian Crude Oil Flows

Extreme Market Distortions Canadian Crude Oil Flows

With extensive natural resources and strategic access to both the Atlantic and Pacific basins, Canada has the potential to become a global energy powerhouse – provided that the nation is successful in alleviating its infrastructure bottlenecks. According to the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA), Canada has the third-largest crude oil reserves in the world (EIA 2020).    

27th December 2020
The Impact of Global Trade Disruptions on World Oil Markets

The Impact of Global Trade Disruptions on World Oil Markets

After decades of relatively smooth trade liberalization, a wave of protectionist measures and a global trade war is now threatening world trade. On September 1, 2019, the United States (U.S.) imposed a new series of tariffs on Chinese imports worth more than $100 billion.

4th December 2019
Critical Minerals and the Oil Industry: The Impact of a Positive Shock to Critical Mineral and World Oil Prices

Critical Minerals and the Oil Industry: The Impact of a Positive Shock to Critical Mineral and World Oil Prices

The term “critical minerals” (CMs) refers to a distinct category of commodities, such as rare earths, critical earth minerals, and other non-fuel minerals or mineral materials that are of strategic importance to national economies and technical development and that have a high risk of being associated with supply disruptions. Consequently, the definition can vary over time and across countries. For example, in 2022, the U.S. Geological Survey added nickel and zinc while removing helium, potash, rhenium, and strontium to their list of critical minerals.

7th November 2024
The Demise of the Energy Marketing Industry: An Industry in Decline?

The Demise of the Energy Marketing Industry: An Industry in Decline?

Oilweek, (Calgary: June Warren Publishing Ltd.)

2003
Real Options Valuation and Energy Markets

Real Options Valuation and Energy Markets

Risk Magazine (London: Risk Waters Group)

2003
Transformation and Reform in the Russian Energy Sector

Transformation and Reform in the Russian Energy Sector

Joint Project on Revitalizing Russian Industry, University of Calgary—Gorbachev Foundation Public Policy Project (UCGF’99)

2002
Oil and Gas in Central Asia and Northwest China

Oil and Gas in Central Asia and Northwest China

Book Review , The Energy Journal

2002
The Geopolitics of Energy into the 21st Century

The Geopolitics of Energy into the 21st Century

Book Review, Geopolitics of Energy, (Calgary: Canadian Energy Research Institute)

2001
US Natural Gas

US Natural Gas

Oxford Energy Forum

2001
Vladimir Putin: The Man in the Iron Mask

Vladimir Putin: The Man in the Iron Mask

Geopolitics of Energy (Calgary: Canadian Energy Research Institute)

2000
Yeltsin’s Legacy

Yeltsin’s Legacy

Geopolitics of Energy (Calgary: Canadian Energy Research Institute)

2000
Russian Presidential Elections

Russian Presidential Elections

Geopolitics of Energy (Calgary: Canadian Energy Research Institute)

1996
Battle for Market Share: World Oil Market Projections, 1995-2010

Battle for Market Share: World Oil Market Projections, 1995-2010

CERI Study No. 65 (Calgary: Canadian Energy Research Institute)

1995
Taxing the Difference: World Oil Market Projections, 1994-2009

Taxing the Difference: World Oil Market Projections, 1994-2009

CERI Study No. 59 (Calgary: Canadian Energy Research Institute)

1994
Containing Iraq: World Oil Market Projections, 1993-2008

Containing Iraq: World Oil Market Projections, 1993-2008

CERI Study No. 51 (Calgary: Canadian Energy Research Institute)

1993
Russian Re-Centralization of Energy

Russian Re-Centralization of Energy

Geopolitics of Energy (Washington: Conant and Associates)

1993
Oil in the Former Soviet Union: Historical Perspectives, Long-Term Outlook

Oil in the Former Soviet Union: Historical Perspectives, Long-Term Outlook

CERI Study No. 48 (Calgary: Canadian Energy Research Institute)

1992
Challenging OPEC: World Oil Market Projections, 1992-2007

Challenging OPEC: World Oil Market Projections, 1992-2007

CERI Study No. 47 (Calgary: Canadian Energy Research Institute)

1992
A ‘New’ OPEC

A ‘New’ OPEC

Geopolitics of Energy

1992
After the Crisis: World Oil Market Projection s, 1991-2006

After the Crisis: World Oil Market Projection s, 1991-2006

CERI Study No.39 (Calgary: Canadian Energy Research Institute)

1991

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