Galkin, Philipp

07 January 2025

We analyze oil price dynamics in the long-, medium and short-term by using the world crude storage index (COSI), a global index reflecting spread options values from crude oil at major ports around the world for all of the major competing crudes.

26 September 2023

he purpose of this report is to recommend an interconnected regional and international strategy to share the burden of developing and maintaining commercial and strategic storage infrastructure for Saudi crude oil and products through an alliance with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GC...

14 May 2023

ost‒benefit analysis (CBA) has been used to assess investment projects for decades with the aim of quantifying their externalities and potential impacts on social welfare. However, the domain where CBA is applied has been primarily limited to direct public financing in several sector...

25 November 2020

Despite the increasing attention paid to energy security and the continuously broadening scope of the field, the perspective of energy importing countries (i.e., supply security) has overshadowed that of exporters, who seek to ensure demand security. As official statements and policy...

24 February 2020

Understanding the relationship between crude oil prices and inventory levels is critical for policymakers and economic actors. The size of the ‘basis,’ or spread between spot and futures prices, reflects the level of inventories and can trigger arbitrage trading. The basis also refle...

12 January 2020

The Chinese government launched the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013 as a vision to promote...  people-to-people bonds. Thousands of BRI projects have already been approved, with a total investment potential of $1.2-1.3 trillion by 2027 (IDSA 2019, Morgan Stanley 2018). 

28 May 2019

• The level of uneconomic oil production in China is highly sensitive to the international oil price. At $50/bbl about 9 million tonnes of domestic supplies are foun...
• Rising crude oil import prices since mid-2017 may allow policymakers to further deregulate China’s domestic oil sector.

28 May 2019

• The risk premium associated with passing through the Malacca Straits would result in a 27.5% increase in price volatility for China’s oil imports, although the negative impact on its average import price level would be less pronounced, at 2.6% compared to between 5.2% and 5.8% for t...

19 July 2018

This paper identifies key determinants that appear to shape OPEC’s quota strategy and implementation. Using econometric estimations, it examines the factors that seem to most influence members’ adherence to their production commitments in the short term and what drives the organizati...

04 June 2018

Petrochemical products, particularly plastics, contribute to a significant share of expanding and increasingly diverse trade flows between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and China. The petrochemical sector could benefit from a preferential bilateral trade regime between...

24 May 2018

Despite significant progress made by China in liberalizing its natural gas market, certain key areas such as market access and pricing mechanisms remain heavily monopolized or controlled by the government. To assess how such distortions impact the market, we developed a Mixed Complem...

16 April 2017

During periods of supply abundance that lead to lower prices, commodity exporters strive to secure their market share with major importing economies. This paper seeks to cast light on what drives an exporter’s share of Chinese imports of oil, gas and coal – and we find that the strat...

29 September 2016

When energy sectors transition from government-controlled to market-driven systems, the legacy regulatory instruments can create unintended market distortions and lead to higher costs. In China, the most notable regulatory throwback is ceilings on electricity prices that generators c...

07 September 2015

China’s coal industry grew at unprecedented rates during the first decade of the 2000s in order to support equally unprecedented economic growth. In that type of environment, it is impossible for the capacities of every link in the supply chain to be correctly sized all the time. In ...

06 January 2015

Government policy is a critical factor in the understanding of energy markets. Governments create constraints and incentives that drive behavior through policy. In turn, these behaviors have fundamental impacts on the functioning of markets. Despite the critical role of policy, it is...

05 December 2024

The dissolution of the Soviet Union in late 1991 marked a pivotal shift in the global economic landscape, ushering in an era characterized by increased market openness and economic integration. The years following have been symbolized by the formation of the European Union in 1993 an...

29 January 2023

The Russian-Ukraine conflict and sanctions on Russian crude oil flows have significantly affected world oil markets. Price volatility has increased, flows have been re-directed and there is considerable uncertainty concerning future energy policy. The implications of these changes a...

30 March 2021

On November 15, 2020, 10 Southeast Asian economies, joined by Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea, formed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) – the world’s largest trading bloc, representing about a third of the global economy (BBC 2020). This comp...

27 December 2020

With extensive natural resources and strategic access to both the Atlantic and Pacific basins, Canada has the potential to become a global energy powerhouse – provided that the nation is successful in alleviating its infrastructure bottlenecks. According to the United S...    

02 December 2024

The transportation and distribution of large volumes of oil, gas, and refined products over long distances are enabled primarily by marine shipping. Transborder pipelines serve as an additional method for transporting oil and gas. However, these pipelines are typically more expensive...

07 November 2024

The term “critical minerals” (CMs) refers to a distinct category of commodities, such as rare earths, critical earth minerals, and other non-fuel minerals or mineral materials that are of strategic importance to national economies and technical development and that have a high risk o...

26 September 2023

ritical minerals (CMs), such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earth metals, are essential for the development of clean energy technologies across the whole value chain of wind and solar power, electricity networks, and electric vehicles (EVs). Demand for these minerals is expecte...

13 September 2022

The global oil market dwarfs other commodity markets. Its size and role in the energy and industrial value chains underscore its significant economic and geopolitical impacts. Thus, the consequences of oil price fluctuations extend far beyond the oil industry and can be viewed as a ...

01 May 2023

President Xi Jinping announced the BRI in 2013 during his official visits to Kazakhstan and Indonesia. The vision for a Silk Road Economic Belt connecting Central Asia and Europe was outlined in his speech in Kazakhstan, and the roadmap for a Maritime Silk... Click here to read the book

05 July 2020

Efforts to integrate cross-border energy infrastructure and regional power markets have been gaining momentum worldwide. Such efforts have the potential of optimizing regional generation resources, delivering more variable renewable energy to the grid, and improving social equity thr...