Our objectives are to quantify the benefits and costs of strategically allocating export barrels across key consuming regions to minimize risks of disruption in demand, and to determine whether changing crude/product markets challenge assumptions about optimum industry structures.
We have developed an analytical framework – Global Oil Trade Model (GOTM) – to examine the trade-offs among the origin and destination of the quantities of crude oil in question, the crude oil quality and the configurations of refineries.
The project’s focus includes:
- Providing initial insights from the simulation of a large market leader strategically placing barrels to secure additional revenue.
- Identifying costs of non-financial drivers of crude oil placement.
- Addressing additional facets of security of demand: costs of alternative mitigation strategies, trade/economic relationship considerations, etc.
- Assessing value of NOC downstream integration (domestic and international).