• Initiative -
  • Type KAPSARC journal article
  • Date 1 October 2016
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Abstract

We examine quarterly oil price forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters conducted by the European Central Bank. We present three empirical findings, all of which are robust to the number of respondents considered. First, the dispersion of forecasts is correlated positively with the average forecast error for all forecast horizons. Second, at the current and next quarter horizons, the oil price volatility observed through to the end of the forecast horizon statistically explains the disagreement among oil forecasters. Third, we use the disagreement among forecasters to derive a measure of the price volatility which is correlated well with the volatility observed ex post. When the forecast horizon is one quarter ahead, the disagreement-based volatility is equal to the price volatility observed subsequently, plus a small add factor. These results support the view that the disagreement among forecasters reflects the price volatility. © 2016 International Institute of Forecasters.

https://www2.gwu.edu/~forcpgm/Does_disagreement_among_oil_price_forecasters_reflect_future_volatility_RPF_Brown_Bag_030613.pdf

International Journal of Forecasting

Authors

Tarek Atalla

Tarek Atalla

Former Research Associate

Fred Joutz

Fred Joutz

Axel Pierru

Program Director Axel is the director of KAPSARC’s Energy and Macroeconomics program. From October 2018 to March 2019, he was KAPSARC’s interim… Axel is the director of KAPSARC's Energy and Macroeconomics program. From October 2018 to March 2019, he was KAPSARC's interim vice president of research. Axel joined KAPSARC in 2011, after spending 15 years at IFP Energies Nouvelles in France, where he led research, consulting and training projects. Axel received his Ph.D. in economics from the Pantheon-Sorbonne University in Paris. He undertakes applied research that combines methodological innovation with practical relevance for policymaking. His research is focused on energy economics, policy, finance, oil pricing, and energy-exporting economies. Axel has been published extensively, with over 40 peer-reviewed journal papers to his name.

Expertise

  • Energy modelling
  • Energy economics
  • Energy policy
  • Oil pricing and finance

Publications See all Axel Pierru’s publications

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