• Program -
  • Type Discussion paper
  • Date 23 May 2024
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Abstract

Bayesian vector autoregressions have been used by central banks to prepare short-term projections of quarterly GDP and other macroeconomic variables. The Bayesian approach offers the advantage that a researcher can use a priori knowledge to specify a prior distribution of the parameters. In this paper, we have combined monthly data for Saudi Arabia with quarterly fiscal and GDP variables to produce forecasts over an approximate 12-month period.

Authors

Jeremy Rothfield

Senior Principal- Energy Macro & Microeconomics

Expertise

Publications See all Jeremy Rothfield’s publications

Mansour Al Rajhi

Mansour Al Rajhi

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