• Program Climate & Sustainability Climate & Sustainability
  • Type Discussion paper
  • Date 16 April 2025
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Abstract

The Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius (°C), and ideally 1.5°C, above pre-industrial levels, places significant emphasis on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. However, the global landscape for CDR deployment remains uneven, with significant disparities in technological capacity, economic readiness, and regional ambition. This study investigates how limited access to CDR technologies could exacerbate global economic inequality under a 1.5°C pathway. Using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM v6.0), six scenarios – ranging from unrestricted CDR availability to constrained deployment – are evaluated. Our findings reveal that constrained CDR availability significantly increases median global carbon prices, rising from US$588 per ton of carbon dioxide (tCO2) in the full CDR portfolio scenario to $937/tCO2 by 2055 in the most restrictive scenario. By 2100, some regions will face prices exceeding $3,000/tCO2, underscoring stark regional inequalities. These elevated carbon prices could deepen economic disparities, particularly in developing nations and fossil fuel-dependent economies. Furthermore, constrained CDR availability could also amplify inequalities in energy and food security, disproportionately affecting poorer regions. The study underscores the need for equitable CDR access to support a just global transition to a low-carbon future, offering valuable insights for policymakers designing more equitable climate strategies.

Authors

Raphael Apeaninga

Raphael Apeaninga

Lead- Climate and Sustainability

Puneet Kamboj

Lead- Climate & Sustainability Puneet is an lead in the Climate and Sustainability program. Currently, he is working on scenario analysis and deep decarbonization…

Puneet is an lead in the Climate and Sustainability program. Currently, he is working on scenario analysis and deep decarbonization pathways under the Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Partnership (CAMP) project at KAPSARC.

Before joining KAPSARC, he worked with Council on Energy, Environment and Water in India where he co-developed the tailored version of Global Change Analysis Model for India (GCAM-India). Prior to CEEW, he has worked with Brookings Institution (India Center) where he co-edited an anthology on the coal sector in India. Across the 18 chapters, drawing from leading experts in the field, the book examines all aspects of coal’s future in India. He has a rich portfolio of published papers, policy briefs and reports. As an independent scholar, he has been writing for the G20, and leading national newspapers. Puneet holds a Master of Technology in renewable energy from TERI University, New Delhi.

Expertise

  • Integrated Assessment Modelling
  • Climate Change Mitigation
  • Coal Transitions and Transport Economics

Publications See all Puneet Kamboj’s publications

Mohamad Hejazi

Executive Director- Climate & Sustainability Mohamad Hejazi is the executive director for the Climate and Sustainability Program at KAPSARC. He also leads the Climate Change…

Mohamad Hejazi is the executive director for the Climate and Sustainability Program at KAPSARC. He also leads the Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Partnership (CAMP) project, and his work focuses on climate change research, climate impacts and adaptation, climate mitigation, integrated assessment modeling, and energy-water-land nexus. Prior to joining KAPSARC, Mohamad worked as a senior research scientist at the U.S. Department of Energy’s Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, where he served as the principal investigator for the Global Change Intersectoral Modeling System project, a multi-million-dollar project that includes over 40 interdisciplinary researchers across many institutions. He has also led and contributed to projects with the World Bank, Inter-American Development Bank, US-AID, US-EPA, USGS, NASA, and NSF-INFEWS. Mohamad has authored over 100 journal publications, and he has also served as a contributing author to the Fourth U.S. National Climate Assessment, and the AR6 IPCC WG III report on the mitigation of climate change. Mohamad holds a B.S. and M.S. from the University of Maryland, College Park, and a Ph.D. from the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign.

Expertise

  • Climate change research
  • Climate impacts and adaptation
  • Climate mitigation
  • Integrated assessment modeling
  • Energy-water-land nexus

Publications See all Mohamad Hejazi’s publications

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