Saudi Non-oil Exports Before and After COVID-19: Historical Impacts of Determinants and Scenario Analysis

  • Focus Area Models, Data and Tools Models, Data and Tools
  • Type Discussion paper
  • Date 24 August 2021
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Abstract

The diversification of the non-oil sector, including its exports, is at the core of Saudi Vision 2030. This study investigates Saudi non-oil exports in a novel way. Specifically, it differs from previous studies on this topic owing to its modeling framework. This study’s modeling framework first estimates the non-oil export equation, which allows us to examine the historical impacts of theoretically articulated demand- and supply-side determinants on non-oil exports. This is done using Autometrics, a state-of-the-art algorithm for computer-automated model selection in the general-to-specific modeling strategy framework, with super saturation.

Authors

Fakhri Hasanov

Fakhri Hasanov

Senior Principal- Energy Macro & Microeconomics Fakhri Hasanov is a senior principal and leads the KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model projects with 20+ years of experience…

Fakhri Hasanov is a senior principal and leads the KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model projects with 20+ years of experience in econometric modeling and forecasting. Since 2015, he has been involved in multistakeholder projects, leading and executing macroeconomic analysis of various policy choices and initiatives (e.g., energy prices, energy demand, and fiscal reforms) for the Kingdom’s economy. He has extensive experience working with policymakers. Prior to KAPSARC, he was a post-doc at George Washington University.

His research mainly covers macro-econometric modeling for energy and environmental economics policy analyses. Dr. Hasanov has authored 50+ applied studies published in reputable journals such as Energy Policy, Energy Economics, Empirical Economics, and Energy Strategy Review. His research is recognized internationally (e.g., he is listed among the top 2% of scientists globally by Elsevier). Fakhri is an editorial board member of various peer-reviewed journals, such as Frontiers in Environmental Science. He holds a Ph.D. in econometrics.

Expertise

  • Econometric modeling and forecasting
  • Time series and panel data econometrics
  • Macroeconometric models for policy analyses
  • Energy economics
  • Environmental economics.

Publications See all Fakhri Hasanov’s publications

Fred Joutz

Fred Joutz

Muhammad Javid

Muhammad Javid

Senior Fellow- Energy Macro & Microeconomics Muhammad Javid is a Senior Fellow in Energy Macro & Microeconomics at KAPSARC, currently working on the KAPSARC Global Energy…

Muhammad Javid is a Senior Fellow in Energy Macro & Microeconomics at KAPSARC, currently working on the KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model (KGEMM) project. Before joining KAPSARC, Muhammad worked as a Senior Research Economist at the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) in Islamabad. During his 20+ years in research, Muhammad has worked extensively in the areas of energy, environment, econometric modeling, forecasting, and macroeconomics. He also has experience working for various research, academic, and governmental organizations, such as King Saud University in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and the Benazir Income Support Program in Pakistan. Muhammad has published several peer-reviewed articles on electricity demand, energy, inflation, and environmental issues. He received Pakistan’s Higher Education Commission’s Outstanding Research Award 2015/2016 for his research paper, “Environmental Kuznets curve and financial development in Pakistan,” published in Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews.

Expertise

  • Econometric Modeling and Forecasting
  • Energy and Environment
  • Water Demand

Publications See all Muhammad Javid’s publications

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