Abstract

Article 4.19 of the 2015 Paris Agreement calls on signatories to formulate and communicate “long-term low greenhouse gas development strategies,” widely known as the mid-century strategy (MCS). Any enhancement of the European Union’s (EU’s) targets in its MCS depends on a new long-term EU climate policy subject to ongoing negotiations between member states. The EU submits one nationally determined contribution (NDC) for all 28 member states, likely soon to be 27 following the proposed departure of the United Kingdom (U.K.) from the EU (Brexit). In 2011 the European Commission outlined an indicative 80% emissions reduction target in its 2050 low carbon economy roadmap compared to 1990 levels. In a move away from a target-centered approach, the European Commission’s most recent communication entitled “A Clean Planet for all – A European strategic long-term vision for a prosperous, modern, competitive and climate neutral economy” calls for carbon neutrality by 2050 but avoids any mention of targets. It instead outlines scenarios that offer policy pathways for EU member states. This paper shows that in mid-2018, EU members were unwilling to commit to higher targets, which could provide an insight into what was an unexpected shift in European Commission policy.

Authors

AlJawhara Al Quayid

AlJawhara Al Quayid

Research Analyst AlJawhara is a research analyst in the Policy and Decision Science program with research interests in political economy, international affairs,…

Expertise

  • Political economy
  • international affairs
  • geopolitics
  • finance and trade.

Publications See all AlJawhara Al Quayid’s publications

The Impact of Global Trade Disruptions on World Oil Markets

The Impact of Global Trade Disruptions on World Oil Markets

Article 4.19 of the 2015 Paris Agreement calls on signatories to formulate and communicate “long-term…

December 4, 2019
Political Feasibility of Enhancing India’s Midcentury Target for Emissions Intensity

Political Feasibility of Enhancing India’s Midcentury Target for Emissions Intensity

Article 4.19 of the 2015 Paris Agreement calls on signatories to formulate and communicate “long-term…

September 18, 2019
Saleh Al Muhanna

Saleh Al Muhanna

Research Analyst Saleh is a senior research analyst in the Policy and Decision Science program. His interests lie in geopolitical research, international…

Expertise

  • Political theory
  • geopolitics
  • and international trade.

Publications See all Saleh Al Muhanna’s publications

Political Feasibility of Enhancing the Russian Emissions Reduction Target Under the Paris Agreement

Political Feasibility of Enhancing the Russian Emissions Reduction Target Under the Paris Agreement

Article 4.19 of the 2015 Paris Agreement calls on signatories to formulate and communicate “long-term…

November 13, 2019
Assessing Politics in Market Projections-Restarting Japanese Nuclear Reactors and Global Gas Markets

Assessing Politics in Market Projections-Restarting Japanese Nuclear Reactors and Global Gas Markets

Article 4.19 of the 2015 Paris Agreement calls on signatories to formulate and communicate “long-term…

October 27, 2019
Paul Mollet

Paul Mollet

Research Fellow Paul is a research fellow in the Policy and Decision Sciences program. He is a former journalist and energy market…

Expertise

  • Energy transition
  • climate change and oil markets

Publications See all Paul Mollet’s publications

Political Feasibility of Enhancing India’s Midcentury Target for Emissions Intensity

Political Feasibility of Enhancing India’s Midcentury Target for Emissions Intensity

Article 4.19 of the 2015 Paris Agreement calls on signatories to formulate and communicate “long-term…

September 18, 2019
US Rolls Back Regulation but the Oil Industry Moves Forward

US Rolls Back Regulation but the Oil Industry Moves Forward

Article 4.19 of the 2015 Paris Agreement calls on signatories to formulate and communicate “long-term…

September 12, 2019
Share

Stay informed

I'm interested in

Select the updates you'd like to receive from us

About

A bit about you