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Abstract

Article 4.19 of the 2015 Paris Agreement calls on signatories to formulate and communicate “long-term low greenhouse gas development strategies,” widely known as the mid-century strategy (MCS). Any enhancement of the European Union’s (EU’s) targets in its MCS depends on a new long-term EU climate policy subject to ongoing negotiations between member states. The EU submits one nationally determined contribution (NDC) for all 28 member states, likely soon to be 27 following the proposed departure of the United Kingdom (U.K.) from the EU (Brexit). In 2011 the European Commission outlined an indicative 80% emissions reduction target in its 2050 low carbon economy roadmap compared to 1990 levels. In a move away from a target-centered approach, the European Commission’s most recent communication entitled “A Clean Planet for all – A European strategic long-term vision for a prosperous, modern, competitive and climate neutral economy” calls for carbon neutrality by 2050 but avoids any mention of targets. It instead outlines scenarios that offer policy pathways for EU member states. This paper shows that in mid-2018, EU members were unwilling to commit to higher targets, which could provide an insight into what was an unexpected shift in European Commission policy.

Authors

AlJawhara Al Quayid

Research Analyst AlJawhara is a research analyst in the Policy and Decision Science program with research interests in political economy, international affairs,… AlJawhara is a research analyst in the Policy and Decision Science program with research interests in political economy, international affairs, finance, and trade. She holds a B.S. degree in business administration with a focus in finance from Alfaisal University.  

Expertise

  • Political economy
  • International affairs
  • Geopolitics
  • Finance and trade.

Publications See all AlJawhara Al Quayid’s publications

Saleh Al Muhanna

Research Analyst Saleh is a senior research analyst in the Policy and Decision Science program. His interests lie in geopolitical research, international… Saleh is a senior research analyst in the Policy and Decision Science program. His interests lie in geopolitical research, international agreements and international trade. Saleh holds a master's degree in international commerce and policy from George Mason University and a B.S. degree in economics from Pennsylvania State University.

Expertise

  • Political theory
  • Geopolitics
  • International trade.

Publications See all Saleh Al Muhanna’s publications

Paul Mollet

Paul Mollet

Research Fellow Paul was a research fellow in the Policy and Decision Sciences program. He is a former journalist and energy market… Paul was a research fellow in the Policy and Decision Sciences program. He is a former journalist and energy market analyst with over 25 years of experience in international energy markets. He opened the first Gulf Cooperation Council bureau for the oil price reporting agency S&P Global Platts in Dubai in 1989 and later launched the first regional office for Argus Media. Paul has attended numerous OPEC meetings and written extensively about the oil industry in publications such as Platts Oilgram News, Argus Global Markets, and the Petroleum Economist. He was also the senior advisor to the Secretary-General at the World Energy Council (WEC).    

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