Project Aim

This research project will evaluate the political feasibility for signatories of the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to effectively implement and improve their nationally determined commitments (NDCs), to limit global temperatures to 2 degrees Celsius (C) above pre-industrial levels. 

Understanding this political feasibility will significantly improve long-term energy forecasting and scenario planning. National and international decision-makers will have more insight into potential levers that can be used to improve the speed and scope of implementing the Paris Agreement, particularly concerning the top five emitters.


Key questions

  • What is the feasibility of individual and aggregate countries effectively implementing current NDCs and NDC to reach the 2°C or 1.5°C target?
  • To what extent will five-year NDC revisions be enhanced and implemented effectively?
  • What is the domestic political feasibility for China, the United States, the 28 Member States of the European Union, India, and Russia to meet, underperform, or exceed their current and revised NDCs?
  • If the 2°C or 1.5°C targets are politically infeasible, what is a realistic potential outcome?
  • What is the expected timing, as well as scope, of future NDC adjustments?
  • Are there alternative scenarios or country approaches to the UNFCCC process that can improve or impede these expected outcomes?


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