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Abstract

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has said it wishes to transition toward a less carbon-intensive energy system, both as part of its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and as one of a number of investments in ‘green’ research and development, technology and power generation. However, given the complexity of the UAE political system, which requires consensus among seven relatively sovereign and independent emirates, as well as commercial and financial interests, it is not immediately clear which policy instruments that might drive the UAE energy transition will prove acceptable and politically plausible. Here, we apply the KAPSARC Toolkit for Behavioral Analysis (KTAB) platform, a model of collective decision-making processes (CDMPs), to assess the political will to agree to and to implement an array of different policy alternatives within the current UAE context.

Authors

Brian Efird

Program Director Dr. Brian Efird is the program director for Policy and Decision Science. He manages a multidisciplinary, multi-national team of researchers… Dr. Brian Efird is the program director for Policy and Decision Science. He manages a multidisciplinary, multi-national team of researchers who work on quantitative models of collective decision-making processes (CDMP), geospatial information system applications to energy economics and energy policy, demography and energy, and energy policy studies of countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region. Dr. Efird is co-editor-in-chief of a new journal from Springer Scientific called Energy Transitions. He was previously a senior research fellow at the National Defense University in Washington, D.C.; a consultant on defense and international security matters in Washington; and a consultant applying quantitative models to support corporate, investment banking, and legal negotiations in New York.

Expertise

  • Behavioral modeling
  • Geopolitics
  • Defense and national security studies
  • Human geography
  • Strategic communication

Publications See all Brian Efird’s publications

Paul Mollet

Paul Mollet

Research Fellow Paul was a research fellow in the Policy and Decision Sciences program. He is a former journalist and energy market… Paul was a research fellow in the Policy and Decision Sciences program. He is a former journalist and energy market analyst with over 25 years of experience in international energy markets. He opened the first Gulf Cooperation Council bureau for the oil price reporting agency S&P Global Platts in Dubai in 1989 and later launched the first regional office for Argus Media. Paul has attended numerous OPEC meetings and written extensively about the oil industry in publications such as Platts Oilgram News, Argus Global Markets, and the Petroleum Economist. He was also the senior advisor to the Secretary-General at the World Energy Council (WEC).    

Imtenan Al-Mubarak

Senior Research Associate Imtenan is a senior research associate in KAPSARC’s Policy and Decision Science program with years of experience in the industry… Imtenan is a senior research associate in KAPSARC’s Policy and Decision Science program with years of experience in the industry and the research. She is also leading the research strategic project management activities. Imtenan holds a Master’s degree with distinction in Software engineering and leadership from DePaul University, Chicago, USA. She is a Future Energy Leader at World Energy Council in London.

Expertise

  • Data science
  • Machine learning
  • Industry and entrepreneurship
  • Game theory
  • Bargaining models
  • Behavioral analysis
  • Policy assessment
  • Geopolitics
  • GCC energy policies and economics
  • Transition management.

Publications See all Imtenan Al-Mubarak’s publications

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